Trump’s Lebanon crisis: Why paper ceasefires fail










![]()
More than 60% of Ukrainians categorically reject a ceasefire along the current frontline if Ukraine receives no security guarantees. The same share would approve a ceasefire if European troops were stationed near the frontline and would defend Ukraine against renewed Russian aggression, according to a new Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS) poll, conducted between 7 May and 3 June 2026.
The poll quantifies the substantive Ukrainian public position on the ongoing diplomatic process: the ceasefire itself is not the disputed question, but security guarantees are.
Across the four scenarios KIIS tested, the lowest level of support (32%) is for a ceasefire without guarantees. Mid-range support corresponds to mid-range guarantees: 42% for European troops deep in Ukraine that would not fight, and 53% for security guarantees in the form of large-scale financial and weapons support.
Scenario 1 — ceasefire without security guarantees, money, or weapons: 61% categorically reject, 32% willing to approve (mostly reluctantly). This is the substantive Ukrainian public position on the unconditional ceasefire that Russian negotiators have repeatedly framed as a starting point: the offer falls short by roughly two-to-one.
Scenario 2 — ceasefire with European troops deployed deep in Ukraine, NOT participating in combat if Russia attacks again: 49% categorically reject, 42% willing to approve. A passive Western presence is closer to acceptance but does not yet command majority support.
Scenario 3 — ceasefire with security guarantees in the form of large-scale money and weapons supply: 37% categorically reject, 53% willing to approve. Material guarantees alone gain majority support, but with significant skepticism remaining.
Scenario 4 — ceasefire with European troops near the frontline who WOULD defend Ukraine against renewed Russian aggression: 33% categorically reject, 61% willing to approve. Active defense by European forces commands the highest support, with a clear majority in favor of a ceasefire under conditions that make Russian re-invasion materially riskier.
KIIS conducted the survey by computer-assisted telephone interview (CATI), using random sampling of mobile phone numbers. The sample of 2,007 Ukrainian citizens aged 18 and older was drawn exclusively from territory controlled by the Ukrainian government, meaning the data does not include displaced Ukrainians abroad or Ukrainians in Russian-occupied territories.
The polling period of 7 May through 3 June 2026 covered the full month of the current phase of US-mediated diplomatic activity, during which Russia continued striking Ukrainian cities with Shahed drones and missile attacks.

![]()
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is willing to stop the war along the current line of contact and move to negotiations, he said in a Sky News interview. He presented the idea as the quickest route to a ceasefire, while rejecting any deal that hands Russia Ukrainian land. He also urged allies to close Ukraine's air defense gaps.
Asked where he would freeze the lines if Russia agreed to a ceasefire, Zelenskyy said he is ready to accept today's positions.
"Yes, it's the quickest way," he said.
He insisted this is not a giveaway. He does not want to simply freeze the conflict, but to stop the war so it cannot restart "because of some crazy people." A freeze would let Ukraine save children's lives and bring soldiers home. Any ceasefire must be total and free of Russian games, watched by American and European partners. Only then would the sides sit down to end the war through diplomacy. A ceasefire, he added, is "the biggest compromise from our side."
The most urgent need from allies is air defense, Zelenskyy said. Ukraine faces a large deficit in anti-ballistic missiles, with US transfers slowed by the war in the Middle East. He again asked for more Patriot systems. Russia attacks daily, usually with around 300 long-range explosive drones. On the heaviest nights it launches 600 to 850 drones and dozens of missiles.
Ukraine has built more than 400 defense companies since the full-scale invasion, Zelenskyy said. Dozens rank among the world's strongest. They produce drones and missiles, some underground, and the country is close to its own ballistic missile. Ukraine can now share that expertise with allies and even build air defenses for Europe, he said. Kyiv aims to mass-produce drones on a scale few countries can match.
Ukraine's recent strikes on St. Petersburg and the Moscow region answer Russian attacks on Ukrainian energy, Zelenskyy said. St. Petersburg was hit twice last week. He wants Russians far from the front to feel the war they started. Russian President Vladimir Putin understands only "total pressure," he said. Sanctions on Russia's shadow fleet of sanctions-dodging tankers and its oil and gas exports hit hardest.
Zelenskyy said Putin does not want to stop the war and is signaling he wants to win. Whether the fighting ends "100% depends on his decision," he said. His 4 June open letter, which Moscow called rude and rejected, was meant to force an answer and pierce a Russian public living in "some fantastic world." Russian businessman Roman Abramovich came to Kyiv to carry messages to Putin, Zelenskyy said.

His key message was on the Donbas: Ukraine will not leave its land, and compromises come only after a ceasefire. He is ready to meet in any format, but not in Moscow, Belarus, or Minsk. Leaders cannot decide "without us about us," he said, in a message aimed at Washington. Russia, by contrast, keeps insisting that Ukraine surrender all of the Donbas first.

![]()
Britain, France, and Germany backed Ukraine's terms for ending the war after meeting its President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in London, according to their joint statement. They endorsed Kyiv's push for direct talks with Moscow and an immediate ceasefire, while spelling out what a lasting peace would require. The leaders also called for tightening the squeeze on Russia's war economy and scaling up Ukraine's air defenses.
Meeting on 7 June, UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer, French President Emmanuel Macron, and German Chancellor Friedrich Merz set out five conditions for a just and lasting peace. The E3, as the three are known, are Ukraine's leading European backers. Their terms:
The leaders commended Ukraine's president for his 4 June letter to Putin calling to end the war. They backed direct Ukraine-Russia dialogue, with the US and Europe actively taking part, to secure a ceasefire. Europe must play a role in any settlement, they said, working closely with Kyiv, the rest of Europe, and Washington.
They denounced Russia's barrage of missiles and drones, including repeated strikes with the Oreshnik, a Russian missile. They also condemned dangerous Russian drone incursions into NATO territory and offered condolences to the victims. The leaders welcomed Ukraine's recent battlefield gains, from liberated territory to advances in drone warfare. They agreed to coordinate more support at the coming G7 summit in Evian, the next Coalition of the Willing meeting, and the NATO summit in Ankara. That includes choking off more of Russia's wartime revenue and a bigger military pledge at the NATO talks. They also urged scaling up interceptor production and co-developing anti-ballistic and deep-strike weapons.






