Trump’s Lebanon crisis: Why paper ceasefires fail




On one of the main roads out of Dahieh, the name given to the Beirut suburbs now at the heart of Middle East geopolitics, a row of streetlights bearing the same photograph of Iran’s penultimate supreme leader, the late Ali Khamenei, seem to bid farewell to those leaving the area. A few meters further on, as the city of Beirut begins, the iconography that floods Dahieh with the faces of Iranian and Hezbollah leaders — its Lebanese allies — vanishes, as does, to a large extent, the threat of Israeli strikes.

© Hassan Ammar (AP Photo)
Irán ha disparado este domingo una decena de misiles contra el norte de Israel por primera vez desde el inicio del alto el fuego en abril, y horas después de que el ejército del Estado judío atacase Dahiye, los suburbios de mayoría chií de Beirut, la línea roja que había marcado Teherán. El ejército israelí asegura haber interceptado los proyectiles, que han hecho sonar las alarmas antiaéreas en distintas localidades del norte. No se ha informado de heridos. Irán da su represalia por terminada, que define como una “advertencia”, pero ha cerrado su espacio aéreo ante una eventual respuesta de Israel.

© Amir Cohen (REUTERS)



Southern Lebanon — which was turned into a battleground between Israel and the pro‑Iranian militia Hezbollah in 2023 — has suffered a new wave of devastation since February 28, when the Israeli and U.S. governments declared war on Iran and Hezbollah once again took up arms in solidarity with its ally. Israel then shifted its focus from Iran to striking Lebanon, intensifying both its military offensive and its occupation of the neighboring country.

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The ceasefire that has never truly stopped the fighting between Israel and Hezbollah followed the same dynamic on Thursday after being extended in a new round of talks in Washington.

© Stringer (REUTERS)
Israel and Lebanon have agreed to a ceasefire, a tripartite statement from both governments and the U.S. State Department announced. The cessation of hostilities is conditional on the Lebanese fundamentalist militant group Hezbollah completely halting its attacks and withdrawing its operatives from south of the Litani River. If implemented, the pact would open the door to relaunching peace talks between the United States and Iran.

© Mohammed Zaatari (AP Photo/Mohammed Zaatari)
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