US Central Command said on Monday that a US F/A-18 fighter jet fired on an oil tanker attempting to reach Iran as the US continues enforcing the blockade of Iranian ports by attacking civilian ships. “US Central Command (CENTCOM) disabled Palau-flagged M/T Marivex as it transited international waters in the Gulf of Oman toward Iran,” […]

President Trump said on Monday that Iran and Israel must “stop shooting,” comments that came after Israel bombed Iran following Iranian strikes on northern Israel in response to Israel’s strikes on Beirut’s southern suburbs. “Israel and Iran must immediately stop ‘shooting.’ President DONALD J. TRUMP,” the president wrote on Truth Social. Israel launched strikes in […]

Recent exchange of missiles between Iran and Israel highlights diverging views between US president and Israeli PM

The latest eruption of hostilities between Iran and Israel appears to have been contained for now after Donald Trump insisted he called “all the shots” in the Middle East, but in a dangerously fragile region Benjamin Netanyahu has again shown he is ready to take shots of his own.

The exchange of missiles on Sunday and Monday was ample demonstration of the inherent instability of the current limbo between war and peace, but it also shone a bright light on the complex and conflicted relationship between the US president and the Israeli prime minister, frenemies who could determine the fate of the current ceasefire.

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© Photograph: Ronen Zvulun,brendan Smialowski/AFP/Getty Images

© Photograph: Ronen Zvulun,brendan Smialowski/AFP/Getty Images

© Photograph: Ronen Zvulun,brendan Smialowski/AFP/Getty Images

Netanyahu acknowledges pause in fighting in TV speech but vows forceful response to future attacks

Fears of a return to a full-scale regional war in the Middle East eased on Monday as Israel and Iran said they had halted attacks on each other after an appeal from Donald Trump to “immediately stop shooting”.

Benjamin Netanyahu, Israel’s prime minister, acknowledged the halt in fighting with Iran in a televised speech, but vowed to respond “with force” to future attacks.

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© Photograph: Ahmad Gharabli/AFP/Getty Images

© Photograph: Ahmad Gharabli/AFP/Getty Images

© Photograph: Ahmad Gharabli/AFP/Getty Images

Israel and Iran may be seeking an off-ramp to keep the latest flare-up of fighting from boiling over to an extended conflict in the wake of strikes between the two nations on Sunday and Monday. The attacks marked the most serious challenge to the shaky ceasefire that went into effect on April 8. They took place despite President Donald Trump urging both sides to stand down to let the sputtering peace process move forward.

Meanwhile, adding to the tensions, the Houthi rebels of Yemen, an Iranian proxy group, have threatened to attack Israeli shipping in the Red Sea region in support of Iran. As we reported yesterday, they fired missiles at Israel on Sunday.

Both Israel and Iran said on Monday evening local time that they were ready to stop fighting.

“Israel has decided to stop its attacks on Iran,” Reuters reporter Phil Stewart stated on X, citing a source.

SOURCE TO REUTERS: ISRAEL HAS DECIDED TO STOP ITS ATTACKS ON IRAN

— Phil Stewart (@phildstewart) June 8, 2026

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) said it was halting attacks on Israel but maintained the right to resume them if Jerusalem continued “to target Hezbollah in Lebanon,” Fox News reporter Trey Yingst reported.

The IRGC says they are halting attacks on Israel. pic.twitter.com/yxAa4eokKX

— Trey Yingst (@TreyYingst) June 8, 2026

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu claimed the decision to stop attacking Iran was made because “after we dealt a heavy blow to the terrorist regime in Tehran, it ceased its attacks on us. If the terrorist regime in Iran makes a mistake and attacks us again—we will respond with full force.”

در حال حاضر، آتش متوقف شده است، زیرا پس از اینکه ما به رژیم تروریستی در تهران ضربه محکم زدیم، حمله به ما را متوقف کرد.

اگر رژیم تروریستی در ایران اشتباه کند و دوباره به ما حمله کند – ما با قدرت پاسخ خواهیم داد.

نخست وزیر نتانیاهو:
شهروندان عزیز اسرائیل، یک سال پیش ما یک… pic.twitter.com/sk7sRwHNta

— اسرائیل به فارسی (@IsraelPersian) June 8, 2026

In a post on his social media platform, President Donald Trump said both sides “are looking to do an immediate CEASEFIRE! Final negotiations on ‘Peace’ are proceeding, subject to ignorance or stupidity getting in its way.”

The ongoing U.S. blockade of Iranian ports, however, “will remain in place, and in full force and effect, until a ‘Final Deal’ is reached,” Trump added. “Things should move quickly.”

“Both sides, Israel and Iran, are looking to do an immediate CEASEFIRE! Final negotiations on “Peace” are proceeding, subject to ignorance or stupidity getting in its way…” – President DONALD J. TRUMP pic.twitter.com/zLoFSZo3jZ

— The White House (@WhiteHouse) June 8, 2026

Earlier on Monday, Trump demanded that the two sides stop fighting.

“Israel and Iran must immediately stop ‘shooting,'” Trump insisted on Truth Social.

Trump: Israel and Iran should immediately stop “shooting”. pic.twitter.com/P3eM3qcGue

— The STRATCOM Bureau (@OSPSF) June 8, 2026

As we noted yesterday, the latest Israel-Iran fighting was sparked by Israeli bombing of Beirut on Sunday. Hours after that took place, Iran launched missiles at Israel and Israel fired back. Initially on Monday, Israeli leaders said they were expecting a conflict that would last for at least several days and that Iran has sufficient stocks of ballistic missiles to carry that out, according to the Israeli N12 News outlet.  

In addition, the IDF was preparing for more attacks from the Houthis and Hezbollah, N12 stated.

However, that analysis had apparently changed in recent hours.

החל גיוס מילואים, צה"ל נערך למערכה של כמה ימים עם איראן | כל הפרטיםhttps://t.co/T5OYTph17x pic.twitter.com/akVR63Fv2F

— החדשות – N12 (@N12News) June 8, 2026

Israel’s retaliatory strikes came despite Trump telling several reporters on Sunday that he was going to tell Netanyahu to hold his fire and that both sides had done enough to each other and should cease attacking. Those conversations pointed to either messaging to deceive Iran about a pending attack or further signs of strain between the two leaders.

Trump to Channel 13 News:
''I think Israel has responded enough, no need for more. We can achieve peace after 3,000 years.''

— Farzad Seifikaran (@FSeifikaran) June 7, 2026

Netanyahu’s push to attack Hezbollah in Lebanon had reportedly already earned a invective-laden rebuke from Trump.

“You’re fucking crazy,” Axios said Trump told the Israeli leader in a phone call last week. “You’d be in prison if it weren’t for me. I’m saving your ass. Everybody hates you now. Everybody hates Israel because of this.”

"You're fucking crazy": Trump fumes at Netanyahu in call on Lebanon https://t.co/nAMDbaMWm6

— Axios (@axios) June 1, 2026

After Israel struck Beirut on Sunday, Trump told Financial Times that Netanyahu would have no choice but to accept any deal the U.S. negotiates with Iran, because he “calls the shots.”

“He won’t have any choice,” Trump told the outlet in a telephone interview. “I call the shots. I call all the shots. He [Netanyahu] doesn’t call the shots.”

BREAKING: President Trump says Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu will have "no choice" but to accept a US deal with Iran, because he "calls the shots," per FT.

Details include:

1. "I call the shots. I call all the shots. He [Netanyahu] doesn’t call the shots," Trump said

2.…

— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) June 7, 2026

Despite Trump putting his foot down, overnight, “dozens of Israeli Air Force fighter jets struck nine Iranian air defense systems in western and central Iran, and this morning, the IAF struck three factories at a petrochemical complex in southwest Iran,” the Times of Israel reported. “The military says the strikes are only being carried out by Israel, but there is ‘full coordination’ with CENTCOM. Meanwhile, IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Eyal Zamir has spoken with his counterpart, CENTCOM chief Adm. Brad Cooper, three times, according to the military.”

U.S. forces “are assisting in intercepting incoming missiles,” I24 News Diplomatic Correspondent Amichai Stein reported on X. “So far, Iran has launched approximately 22–24 missiles, while the Houthis have fired two.”

An IDF official confirmed that to us, saying that “the Israeli strikes were fully coordinated with CENTCOM across multiple dimensions, including intelligence, defensive preparedness, and operational planning.”

CENTCOM declined to comment.

However, a U.S. official told TWZ that American forces “did not defend Israel with air defense against missiles and drones.”

IDF sources:

• The military is preparing for at least several days of combat.

• U.S. forces are assisting in intercepting incoming missiles.

• So far, Iran has launched approximately 22–24 missiles, while the Houthis have fired two.

— Amichai Stein (@AmichaiStein1) June 8, 2026

Earlier on Monday, Israel released video it says showed attacks on Iranian air defense systems.

FIRST FOOTAGE: Watch IDF strikes targeting aerial defense systems in Iran, which housed missiles intended to target aircraft. pic.twitter.com/7pWhnOuSGV

— Israel Defense Forces (@IDF) June 8, 2026

That strike was part of a wave of attacks Israel carried out on Iranian air defenses across the country.

STRUCK: The IDF completed a large-scale strike on strategic defense systems belonging to the Iranian terror regime.

Recently, defense systems were deployed across Iran to restore the regime’s capabilities degraded during Operation Roaring Lion. The strike led to the… pic.twitter.com/eEqV2QnXK3

— Israel Defense Forces (@IDF) June 8, 2026

Israel also claimed that among its targets were “infrastructure sites at the petrochemical complex in Mahshahr, in southwestern Iran.”

“These facilities were used by the armed forces of the Iranian terror regime to produce and export raw materials for weapons production,” the IDF posited. “The targeted infrastructure produced unique materials that serve as critical components for the development of ballistic missiles.”

confirmed. Among the 15 Targets IAF attacked is the Mahshahr Petrochemical Complex, officially known as the Petrochemical Special Economic Zone (PETZONE) in Bandar-e Mahshahr, Khuzestan Province. Right across the border from Kuwait !

This is Iran's 2nd largest petrochemical… https://t.co/2JgcUZpSZ3 pic.twitter.com/qvQFWMcC6I

— Eyal Ofer אייל עופר (@Eyalo365) June 8, 2026

Video emerged online showing the Israeli airstrikes in Tehran.

For the first time since the April ceasefire, Israel and Iran have attacked each other. Israel carried out strikes on western and central Iran including the Iranian capital Tehran.

While Iran launched missiles at northern Israel and said it is the beginning of a week of attacks.… pic.twitter.com/SmcwFKMw14

— Channel 4 News (@Channel4News) June 8, 2026

The attacks sparked a warning from the U.S. Embassy in Jerusalem.

“As a result of the current security situation in Israel, including Home Front Command alerts for multiple regions,” the U.S. Embassy in Jerusalem is ordering “all U.S. government employees and their family members to shelter in place, and be prepared to move to a protected shelter in the event of a red alert, until further notice.”

As a result of the current security situation in Israel, including Home Front Command alerts for multiple regions, the U.S. Embassy has directed all U.S. government employees and their family members to shelter in place, and be prepared to move to a protected shelter in the event… pic.twitter.com/ohyK56GyNh

— U.S. Embassy Jerusalem (@usembassyjlm) June 8, 2026

Though both Israel and Iran say they are willing to stop fighting, tensions in the region remain high. We will continue to monitor the situation.

UPDATES

As we noted earlier in this story, the Houthi rebels of Yemen said they are banning Israeli ships from the Red Sea and took credit for missile attacks on Israel that took place on Sunday.

“We announce a complete ban on navigation for the enemy in the Red Sea, and any Zionist movements will be considered military targets for our forces,” said Brigadier General Yahya Sare’e, the Houthis’ spokesman. “We will confront escalation with escalation, and our operations will be escalating in line with the battle and our participation in the axis of jihad and resistance.”

“We affirm the right of our people and the free peoples of our nation to confront American-Israeli aggression,” he added. “We will not stand idly by in the face of the unjust siege on our people and the peoples of the axis of jihad and resistance.”

Sare’e also said the Houthis launched “a missile strike on sensitive targets of the Israeli enemy in occupied Jaffa, and achieving its objectives with precision, thanks to God.”

There were no reported injuries or damage from that attack.

Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthis announce that they launched a missile attack on Israel and declared a ban on Israeli shipping in the Red Sea.#Yemen pic.twitter.com/LYYPB7bibK

— Al Arabiya English (@AlArabiya_Eng) June 8, 2026

As we have previously reported, there have been major and relevant concerns that the Houthis could effectively shut down the Bab el-Mandeb (BAM) strait, a narrow stretch of water between Yemen and Djibouti. Doing so would choke off a flow of oil exports from Saudi Arabia to the east, exacerbating a huge spike in oil prices after Iran closed off the Strait of Hormuz to most shipping. Having both straits closed at once is something of a ‘sum of all fears’ scenario for the global energy marketplace.

A new Houthi offensive would be a major cudgel for Iran, because it would open a new front in the war and draw in U.S. military resources at a time when they are already heavily involved in the region. 

During the previous Houthi Red Sea campaign that stretched into early 2025, the U.S. and its allies deployed many warships, including the Eisenhower and Truman Carrier Strike Groups (CSG) to both defend against Houthi attacks and strike targets in Yemen. These operations resulted in a large expenditure of air defense munitions already under strain as Iran rained down missiles and drones across the Middle East.

You can see video from some of those encounters below.

Iran, meanwhile, insists it is maintaining its control over the Strait of Hormuz.

“No vessel without Iran’s permission has the right to pass through the Strait of Hormuz Command vessel of the IRGC Navy,” the official Iranian Fars News Agency stated on X. “It is announced to all vessels that entry of any vessel from hostile countries into the Strait of Hormuz is prohibited and, if observed, they will immediately be targeted.”

Footage Shows Iran's Continued Control of Strait of Hormuzhttps://t.co/a4Ci6L1ZcO pic.twitter.com/4Tv6idNt8z

— Fars News Agency (@EnglishFars) June 8, 2026

CENTCOM says its forces once again disabled a ship trying to run the blockade. This time, the effort involved an F/A-18E/F Super Hornet from the aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln (CVN 72) firing “a precision munition into the ship’s engineering and steering spaces after the crew failed to comply with directions.”

The incident, involving the Palau-flagged M/T Marivex, took place as the unladen oil tanker transited international waters in the Gulf of Oman toward Iran, the command stated on X.

“Marivex is no longer sailing to Iran,” CENTCOM added.

This was the seventh ship trying to run the blockade that CENTCOM forces disabled, the command noted. In addition, it said it  “redirected 134 ships that complied, and allowed 42 vessels supporting humanitarian aid to pass since initiating the blockade on April 13.”

You can read more about how the other six ships were disabled in our story here.

According to a release from U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM), the U.S. disabled an unladen oil tanker, the M/T Marivex, in the Gulf of Oman today. Per the release, a “precise munition” from an F/A-18 Super Hornet was fired into the engine and steering areas of the vessel when the… pic.twitter.com/qyW4WBhfLa

— OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) June 8, 2026

Given existing concerns that Iran has mined the Strait, “US allies will seek Trump’s approval for a Europe-led plan to demine the Strait of Hormuz at next week’s G7 summit in France,” Bloomberg News is reporting. “The UK and French-led mine-clearing mission is operationally ready and set to deploy in the days after any Iran deal. Securing a G7 endorsement of the mission is one of the main goals of the summit. European leaders see it as a way of showing the continent is stepping up to help the US after Trump’s fury it didn’t back his war.”

US allies will seek President Donald Trump’s approval for a Europe-led plan to demine the Strait of Hormuz at next week’s Group of Seven summit in France. https://t.co/Byy6mE94rh

— Bloomberg (@business) June 8, 2026

You can read more about what it takes to conduct demining operations in our exclusive interview with a former MH-53E pilot who carried out those operations, which you can read here.

My exclusive interview with a pilot who flew the behemoth MH-53E Sea Dragon helicopters on counter mine missions over the Persian Gulf and Strait of Hormuz.https://t.co/C0tvO2sLKp

— Howard Altman (@haltman) June 5, 2026

Despite the renewed fighting, Iran’s president says his country has not abandoned diplomacy.

“Our priority is national security and the peace of our people. We will defend the rights of the nation with authority and will not retreat in the face of any threat,” Masoud Pezeshkian stated on X. “Diplomacy and defense are the two wings of national power; we have neither abandoned the field nor the negotiating table. God willing, with unity and rationality, Iran will emerge triumphant from this trial as well.”

اولویت ما امنیت ملی و آرامش مردم است. با اقتدار از حقوق ملت دفاع می‌کنیم و در برابر هیچ تهدیدی عقب‌نشینی نخواهیم کرد. دیپلماسی و دفاع دو بال قدرت ملی‌اند؛ نه میدان را ترک کرده‌ایم و نه میز مذاکره را. به امید خدا با وحدت و عقلانیت ایران از این آزمون نیز سربلند عبور خواهد کرد.

— Masoud Pezeshkian (@drpezeshkian) June 8, 2026

In a post on X, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC)-connected Tasnim news agency claims Iran fired a new jet-powered drone at Israel during its waves of attacks yesterday. The outlet provided no details about the weapon or any imagery of it in flight. TWZ cannot independently verify the claim.

Iran Utilized Newly Unveiled Jet-Powered Drone in Overnight Strikes on Israel

Iran employed a previously unseen jet-powered drone in its overnight attacks on Israel, according to Seyed Mohammad Taheri, a military analyst at Tasnim News Agency’s War Interpretation Desk. https://t.co/ATvBOUmiOZ pic.twitter.com/Z4SBHawMcz

— Tasnim News Agency (@Tasnimnews_EN) June 8, 2026

Contact the author: howard@twz.com

The post Iran And Israel Step Back From The Brink appeared first on The War Zone.

Es probable que esta fase del conflicto iraní solo termine cuando Occidente caiga por el precipicio económico que se avecina…

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President Trump has voiced his frustration with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel, but it is not clear how able he is to rein in Israeli military action.

© Pool photo by Ronen Zvulun

Iran now believes it is winning and will outla.st the United States

Trump-Netanyahu, cresce la tensione. Morelli: “Israele non vuole fermare la guerra”

Mentre il fragile cessate il fuoco tra Israele e Iran mostra già i primi segnali di cedimento, crescono le tensioni tra Washington e Tel Aviv. Le indiscrezioni sulle dure parole rivolte da Donald Trump a Benjamin Netanyahu dopo i nuovi attacchi israeliani contro obiettivi iraniani alimentano infatti i dubbi sulla tenuta del rapporto tra i due storici alleati e sul futuro dei negoziati che gli Stati Uniti stanno cercando di portare avanti con Teheran.

La posta in gioco, però, va ben oltre il conflitto tra Israele e Iran. Sullo sfondo ci sono il controllo dello Stretto di Hormuz, gli equilibri energetici globali e le priorità strategiche di Washington, sempre più concentrate sul contenimento della Cina nell’Indo-Pacifico. In questo scenario si moltiplicano gli interrogativi: Israele sta sabotando il dialogo tra Stati Uniti e Iran? La tregua ha ancora possibilità di reggere oppure è destinata a trasformarsi in una lunga guerra di logoramento? E quanto è profonda la distanza che si sta creando tra Trump e Netanyahu?

A fare il punto è Elia Morelli, ricercatore di storia presso l’Università di Pisa e analista geopolitico, che ad Affaritaliani spiega: “Gli Stati Uniti vorrebbero disimpegnarsi da questo scenario, mentre Israele ritiene che il conflitto debba proseguire fino a ridisegnare gli equilibri del Medio Oriente”.

Trump ha detto a Netanyahu di non attaccare. Poche ore dopo Israele ha colpito l’Iran. È la prova che la tregua è già saltata o che Netanyahu non segue più Washington? Stiamo assistendo alla più grave frattura tra Stati Uniti e Israele degli ultimi anni? Israele sta sabotando il negoziato americano con l’Iran?

“Le dure parole rivolte dal presidente americano Donald Trump al premier Benjamin Netanyahu evidenziano una profonda divergenza tra Washington e Tel Aviv. Gli Stati Uniti si sono ritrovati coinvolti nel conflitto con l’Iran a seguito dell’offensiva israeliana, ma la guerra ha mostrato i limiti dell’asse israelo-statunitense. L’obiettivo di indebolire in modo decisivo Teheran e il suo programma nucleare si è infatti trasformato in una guerra di logoramento con pesanti ripercussioni energetiche e finanziarie a livello globale.

Gli Stati Uniti vorrebbero ora disimpegnarsi da questo scenario, mentre Israele ritiene che il conflitto debba proseguire fino a ridisegnare gli equilibri del Medio Oriente, consolidando la propria supremazia tecnologica e militare nella regione. Nonostante la storica alleanza strategica, l’attuale amministrazione americana considera il Medio Oriente un teatro da cui sganciarsi il prima possibile.

Negli apparati strategici statunitensi è diffusa la percezione che Israele abbia trascinato Washington in una guerra che non rientrava nelle priorità americane. Se i cosiddetti sionisti cristiani presenti nell’orbita trumpiana spingono per proseguire il confronto, il Pentagono è consapevole che un conflitto prolungato rischia di distogliere risorse e attenzione da aree considerate molto più strategiche, come l’Indo-Pacifico e il contenimento dell’ascesa della Cina.

In questo senso resta attuale una celebre frase di Moshe Dayan: ‘I nostri amici americani ci danno sempre molti soldi, armi e consigli. Noi di solito accettiamo i soldi e le armi, ma rifiutiamo i consigli'”.

Se Israele continua a colpire e l’Iran continua a rispondere, il cessate il fuoco è già morto oppure esiste ancora una via d’uscita diplomatica?

“Una via diplomatica continua a esistere soprattutto nel rapporto tra Stati Uniti e Iran. Washington punta a uscire da questa situazione di stallo cercando però di preservare un equilibrio strategico attorno allo Stretto di Hormuz, che rappresenta il vero nodo della contesa.

L’Iran, invece, esce da questa fase con una leadership interna rafforzata. L’offensiva israelo-statunitense ha consolidato le componenti più oltranziste del regime, che oggi si sentono in una posizione di maggiore forza negoziale. Teheran mira a riaffermare la propria influenza sullo Stretto di Hormuz, sfruttando una crisi energetica globale che, paradossalmente, ha finito per aumentare il proprio peso strategico. 

Israele, al contrario, sta cercando di ostacolare qualsiasi percorso negoziale tra Washington e Teheran. Per il governo israeliano questa viene percepita come una guerra decisiva, capace di ridefinire gli assetti regionali. Da qui la volontà di mantenere alta la pressione militare e di impedire un’intesa tra Stati Uniti e Iran.

Per questo motivo ritengo molto difficile arrivare a una tregua complessiva. Potrebbe emergere una forma di distensione tra Washington e Teheran, ma appare assai più complicato immaginare una vera pace tra Iran e Israele. L’antagonismo tra i due Paesi resta infatti uno dei principali motori geopolitici delle tensioni che attraversano il Medio Oriente contemporaneo”.

LEGGI LE NOTIZIE DEL CANALE ESTERI

L'articolo “Israele sta sabotando i negoziati con l’Iran. Netanyahu non vuole fermare la guerra, ma Trump sì”, parla l’analista proviene da Affaritaliani.it.

Iran’s leaders want to show they are serious about defending their Hezbollah allies in Lebanon and maintaining the regional balance of power, analysts say.

© Shir Torem/Reuters

Lebanon is now playing a key role in any ceasefire deal that Trump might think he has nailed with Iran. But can Hezbollah go rogue on all the main players?

Contact us: info@strategic-culture.su

Lebanon is now playing a key role in any ceasefire deal that Trump might think he has nailed with Iran. But can Hezbollah go rogue on all the main players?

Relationships are odd things and are often determined by how people stay together during the tough times, rather than when everything is rosy. But during these last few turbulent days, when Donald Trump frantically scrambles to save the remnants of a peace deal with Iran, one relationship has become paramount to the entire Middle East crisis: that of Hezbollah and Iran. Just how strong is this relationship, or was it always just a ’marriage of convenience’, hollow and unable to withstand the travails of regional tension?

While the Iranians walked away from talks with the U.S. because of Israel’s war in southern Lebanon, Trump realised how important this tiny country is – and will be – if any kind of deal is struck over opening the Straits of Hormuz. While on the one hand Iran has stepped up to the mark by supporting its proxy Hezbollah and has always included Lebanon in any peace deal or ceasefire, it is worth noting that the ties and responsibilities Iran has to Hezbollah are not as solid as many think.

Indeed, in the region, when you talk to geopolitical analysts, they always pontificate over how the West – and in particular Israel – places too much emphasis on Iran’s links to its regional proxies in Syria, Iraq, Yemen and Lebanon. They have long argued that Iran has less control over them than most pundits in Western media would assert.

In his most recent speech, the Hezbollah leader Naim Qassem denounced the deal as a “farce,” saying it would effectively divide southern Lebanon from the rest of the country, giving Israel an advantage to “kill in Lebanon.”

“We have given no commitment to anyone,” Naim said, as he urged the Lebanese government to call off talks with Israel and demanded Israel’s full withdrawal from Lebanese territory. “As long as the aggression continues, we will confront it with all the power we have been given.”

This reference, of course, was directed at the elite in Beirut, who are largely acting on the West’s political bequest in this tiny country – barely 240 km long – which was once a province of Syria.

But some wily analysts might read too much into his statement in the coming days. A few might mull over this comment and speculate that Hezbollah, under certain circumstances, has a wild card to play and is capable of going rogue, distancing itself from the arbitrary direction of Tehran.

Is it possible that the Iranians and the Americans could outmanoeuvre Israel and strike a provisional ceasefire deal, only for it to be scuppered by Hezbollah, which refuses to give up its fight in the south of the country against the IDF? Presently, this must be concerning Trump’s camp but will be amusing to Netanyahu, who probably thinks that Lebanon holds the key for him to continue the war and thus stay in power, avoiding corruption charges.

Hezbollah, for its part, is the most dangerous man in the room, simply because its fighters have nothing to lose. They are backed into a corner and have lost so much of their own land, with 600 killed and a million displaced since the last ceasefire in April was agreed. Militarily speaking, their best guerrilla-style fighting will be seen now, and so one could argue this is their moment. While it is true that the IDF have made significant gains against them, it is wholly under-reported how successful their fighters have been in blowing up IDF tanks, with some estimates claiming the number to be over 200. But victory for either side seems less significant, certainly for Netanyahu, who probably knows that his forces can never actually win against Hezbollah in Lebanon. That is not the point. The point is to keep the war going and use it as leverage against Trump and Iran, while keeping Netanyahu in office, protected from a peace scenario that would remove him from his job and prosecute him – exactly the same set-up that Ukraine’s President Zelensky enjoys.

Lebanon is an important pawn in the bigger game, as it can always be used by Netanyahu to undermine whatever Trump is doing – such as its bombardment of Beirut that killed 357 people on April 8, one day after the U.S. and Iran announced their own ceasefire deal.

But now all Netanyahu needs to do is to agree to the IDF respecting a ceasefire without actually respecting it, while pointing the finger at Hezbollah for supposedly breaking it. It will be a game that is hugely effective, as it will be impossible for Trump to consider Hezbollah as being honourable and the IDF as being duplicitous. Even from a PR perspective, it’s genius.

And so with this new ruse in play, much emphasis is placed on Hezbollah as it is caught between choosing to fight the IDF or accepting a peace deal that would effectively hand over huge swathes of southern Lebanon to the Lebanese army – a useless contingent of poorly trained soldiers with hand-me-down, outdated equipment donated by Western countries, and one which is no match for Hezbollah. Under this deal, Israel would establish itself south of the Litani River and have legal authority to strike Beirut (its goal is to completely reduce the southern suburb where Hezbollah supporters live, similar to Gaza).

There are no real options for Hezbollah other than to fight on, but one has to wonder if they would ultimately accept an ’order’ from Tehran to stop fighting if a deal with the U.S. could be struck. The message from its chief is that under such circumstances of being at war with Israel on Lebanon’s own turf, the Shia group has the right to play the autonomy card while happily listening to Iran’s views – but not necessarily taking them as orders. Suddenly the whole world is watching Lebanon. Suddenly Hezbollah is the most important player, and its relationship with Iran has never been more relevant, as Tehran now might need to use its might to extract a concession from its partner. Even in a fake marriage, one partner has to give in sometimes to the other’s woes or needs, and so in the coming days expect a baptism of articles by obsequious, high-brow Middle East analysts agonising over this marriage and how strong or real it is.

Trump’s February 28th assault on Iran has spawned a number of unintended consequences drenched in irony. The greatest one is that his clumsy buffoonery has probably now resulted in the Iranians getting a nuclear bomb. But a close second to that is that it has also put Iran’s relationships with its proxies under the microscope – and who knows where that’s heading.

Contact us: info@strategic-culture.su

The U.S. war with Iran has moved beyond its initial phase to an emerging new one — one in which Iran implicitly stakes its chances on the next phase being war. Most likely this will be in abbreviated episodes of limited war, but possessing nevertheless a potential to widen regionally, should the U.S. (and Israel) elect to sharply escalate.

The new phase involves risk of course, yet Iran holds the high cards of an ability to impose disproportionately heavier damage upon Gulf infrastructure as retaliation for any hurt inflicted upon it — and the awareness that the West is edging ever closer to dropping off the energy ‘cliff’.

The three pillars underlying this shift are firstly, confidence that Iran will not (and cannot) be shifted from its hold over Hormuz, and that in consolidating its administrative structures there, the reality of Iran’s hold over Hormuz will increasingly be assimilated by states, and reflected in their coming to terms with Iranian-Omani control.

Associated with this core principle is Iran’s implementation of escalated deterrence vis á vis the American naval blockade. Any attempt to intercept or attack Iranian vessels or interfere with the Strait’s administration will be met with increasingly harsher ripostes. Ultimately this policy may lead to Iran imposing increasing levels of damage to U.S. naval vessels – another friction point.

On 3 June, for example, the U.S. fired a hellfire missile at an Iranian oil tanker near the Strait of Hormuz. In response, a U.S.-owned (or partly-owned) ship, The Panaya, was struck with missiles. Additionally Iran launched three waves of cruise missiles at the U.S. air and helicopter base in Kuwait from where the attack had originated. Images have emerged of serious damage at Kuwait international airport too (although the cause of the damage remains disputed).

The second underlying principle affecting this shift simply reflects Iranian disdain for Trump’s continuous inflating of demands, exaggerated threats (which palpably fall short of U.S. capacities), together with his continual zigzagging and contemptuous rhetoric towards Iran.

The Iranian leadership has concluded, it seems, that compromise will likely not be forthcoming, and that it is better to cut the ‘negotiations’ rather “than continue the pointless bad-faith negotiations with a deceitful and decrepit American regime”, as the New York Times has termed the Iran ‘negotiations’ — suggesting that the ‘deal chaos’ is not a singular glitch by Trump confined to the Iran issue, but rather is a consistent pattern of dysfunctionality repeating itself across virtually all of Trump’s ‘peace’ initiatives.

Behind Iran’s decision to suspend talks however, likely lies the gradually dawning clarity, seeping out from Israeli and American statements and analysis, that the true objective of the 28 February U.S.-Israeli sneak attack was never regime change per se — aiming to swap out Iranian ‘hardliners’ for a ‘Delcy Rodrigues’-style more moderate leader; but was intended rather, to bring about Iran’s complete destruction and fracturing — an insight that was bound to shift Iran’s calculus.

This insight has consolidated public support for the Islamic Republic hugely, and at the same time has turned the war into an existential struggle to preserve the ethical values of the Revolution. Seen from this optic, there is little for Iran to discuss with Trump, bar some future modus vivendi — as and when, Washington understands that it is boxed in, and that new realism takes a hold.

The third principle undergirding this new phase of conflict is the one enunciated by Iran from the outset of the Islamabad talks: ‘Ceasefire for all; or ceasefire for no one’. This was again re-emphasised in Iran’s latest ultimatum to Trump: ‘If the Israeli threats from last week to flatten the Beirut southern suburb of Dahiyeh had been executed, then Iran would have stricken northern Israel hard with its missiles. ‘It was a ceasefire for all – or no ceasefire’.

Trump chose the ceasefire, and subsequent to his call with Netanyahu, announced that it was in effect. He told Netanyahu to cancel his planned bombing of Dahiyeh in south Beirut. In Israel, a massive wave of anger from all sides of the political spectrum attacked Netanyahu at the very notion of curbing any Israeli attacks in Lebanon. Former PM Naftali Bennett accused Netanyahu of ‘losing control over Israeli sovereignty’. And former PM Yair Lapid said Israel had been reduced to a “vassal state” after the strikes were called off.

The U.S. and Israel for some months have been attempting to bring a segment of leaders in Lebanon to accept the task of disarming Hizbullah, as Rubio explained, “so Israel doesn’t have to do it” — something Lebanese leaders clearly cannot do.

Israel has no coherent Lebanon strategy. Former senior Israeli military intelligence officer, Danny Citrinowicz, outlines a new strategic “Iranian achievement”:

“Tehran has effectively succeeded in linking the Lebanese front to the broader Iranian-Israeli arena. Any escalation in Lebanon is now increasingly viewed through the prism of the U.S.-Iran dynamic”.

Nevertheless, he observes:

“The situation in Lebanon remains highly unstable. Israel and Hezbollah continue to interpret the current understandings in fundamentally different ways. [Whilst] Israel maintains that it retains freedom of action across Lebanon except Beirut, Hezbollah [on the other hand] insists that any Israeli military activity – at all – violates the ceasefire framework. These competing interpretations create significant potential for renewed friction and escalation on the ground”.

In Israel, the situation in northern towns remains neuralgic for nearly all Israelis. Many towns along the Lebanon border and down into the Galilee are half-empty — “entire swaths of land abandoned by [the] government”, writes Ben Caspit. Local politicians claim that they ‘are Israelis too’ and that the government must respond.

Lebanon is certain to remain a point of contention. It is not a matter of if, but when, the next crisis will strike. Israel will not let the matter stand — even Liberal opposition leaders demand Hizbullah’s destruction and protest Trump’s tying of Netanyahu’s hands in Lebanon.

Iran will not let matters stand either. Mediators have informed the Americans that Iran considers an end to the war on Lebanon, withdrawal of Israeli forces, and a withdrawal from Hormuz, to be binding conditions — before discussing other issues.

So, here we are. The military skirmishes — effectively an abbreviated series of strikes by U.S. forces on Iranian shipping and Strait infrastructure, arising from Trump’s desire to assert its naval blockade to U.S. public opinion — continue. This situation is clearly flammable – just as is the Lebanon context.

Iran effectively is acknowledging the reality that in this new phase — with so many inherent flash points to it — American military escalation at some point likely will become a political necessity for Trump’s domestic and Jewish financers’ needs.

And the negotiations? They will go nowhere so long as Israel and the U.S. Jewish billionaire donors reject any Iran outcome that leaves Iran both intact and stronger and — pari passu in this binary thinking — the ‘Israel First’ project within the U.S. and the region correspondingly weakened.

A deal that doesn’t see Iran irretrievably weakened will be condemned by these latter forces as a ‘treasonous dereliction’ by Trump. He will be attacked mercilessly. Yet, he must see that Iran is anyway on the cusp of throwing off the U.S. shackles.

This phase of the Iranian conflict likely will only end when the West falls off the approaching economic cliff …

Iran has launched a new barrage of missiles at Israel, according to the Israeli Defense Forces. Iranian officials say the attack, the first such strike since the April 8 ceasefire, was in response to Israel bombing Beirut a few hours ago. With Israel under direct attack from Iran, how much longer the ceasefire will hold is an open question.

“A short while ago, the IDF identified missiles launched from Iran toward the territory of the State of Israel,” the IDF stated on Telegram.  “Defensive systems are operating to intercept the threat.”

Sirens were sounded in several areas across the country following the identification of missiles launched from Iran toward Israel. https://t.co/BtjlfxOegW

— Israel Defense Forces (@IDF) June 7, 2026

Iran acknowledged launching missiles at Israel.

BREAKING
Iran launched additional missiles toward Israel.

— IRIB (Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting) (@iribnews_irib) June 7, 2026

Videos emerged on social media showing Israeli air defenses working to intercept the missiles.

Israeli interceptors seen engaging Iranian ballistic missiles over northern Israel a few moments ago. pic.twitter.com/h3QxjRBJzz

— OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) June 7, 2026

A third round of sirens sound in northern Israel, after the IDF intercepted several Iranian ballistic missiles. No initial reports of injuries or damages.

A senior Israeli official tells Israeli media: “There will be a forceful response.” pic.twitter.com/BixzsXOrhs

— Ariel Oseran أريئل أوسيران (@ariel_oseran) June 7, 2026

Additional video purported to show the Iranian missile launches.

Visuals of Iranian Ballistic Missiles fired towards of State of Israel which were later intercepted and neutralised. pic.twitter.com/Xnfaiy1XZD

— Aditya Raj Kaul (@AdityaRajKaul) June 7, 2026

Multiple Iranian ballistic missiles seen flying outbound from Central Iran towards Israel tonight. pic.twitter.com/RynlJ04Qec

— OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) June 7, 2026

Earlier on Sunday, Israel attacked what it said was a Hezbollah command center in the Dahieh section of Beirut. Israel claimed it was in response to Hezbollah rocket attacks on northern Israel.

STRUCK: A Hezbollah command center in the Dahieh area, following Hezbollah’s rocket attacks on northern Israeli communities.

The targeted command center was used by Hezbollah terrorists to advance terror attacks against Israeli civilians and IDF soldiers operating in southern…

— Israel Defense Forces (@IDF) June 7, 2026

There were no initial reports of injuries or damage. The IDF claims that all the missiles were intercepted.

Regardless, Israel will almost certainly launch a retaliatory strike. Israel is considering the Iranian attack a “declaration of war.”

Iran launched many ballistic missiles attacks on Israel after Washington and Jerusalem launched strikes across Iran starting on Feb. 28.

BREAKING: In what appears to be a declaration of war by Iran against Israel, a third wave of missile alerts has been activated across Israel within minutes

— גיא עזריאל Guy Azriel (@GuyAz) June 7, 2026

UPDATE: 4:34 PM EDT –

President Donald Trump spoke with several media outlets in the wake of the Iranian attack. He is urging restraint between the Israel and Iran.

He told Fox News that the attack wasn’t helping negotiations and said he would suggest to Iran that “you shot your missiles, that’s enough, get back to the table and make a deal.”

On Israel striking Beirut earlier today: “I’m not happy about it,” President Trump said.

As I was speaking with President Trump, I could see incoming Iranian missiles out the window soaring toward northern Israel.

"It's certainly not going to help negotiations," President Trump told Fox News.

"What I would suggest to Iran: You've shot your missiles, that's enough,… pic.twitter.com/QhIen8y08a

— Trey Yingst (@TreyYingst) June 7, 2026

The president told Axios reporter Barak Ravid that he was going to call Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and tell him to hold his fire.

“I’m about to call Bibi right now and tell him not to respond,” Trump told the outlet. “Both of them have already done their part. Israel had its strike and Iran had its strike. We don’t need another one.”

“The Iranian missile fire didn’t hit anyone. I hope Israel doesn’t respond. If Bibi attacks them back, it’ll just drag on like it has for the past 47 years, or the past 3,000 years,” Trump told Ravid. “We’re very close to a final deal with Iran. It’ll be a good deal. I don’t want it to blow up because of what’s happening now.”

ציטוטים נוספים משיחת הטלפון שלי עם הנשיא טראמפ: "ירי הטילים האיראני לא פגע באף אחד. אני מקווה שישראל לא תגיב. אם ביבי יתקוף אותם בחזרה, זה פשוט יימשך כמו ב־47 השנים האחרונות, או ב־3,000 השנים האחרונות."
טראמפ הוסיף:"אנחנו מאוד קרובים להסכם סופי עם איראן. זה יהיה הסכם טוב.… https://t.co/g7pshIL497

— Barak Ravid (@BarakRavid) June 7, 2026

Trump told Israel’s Channel 13 News that he thinks “Israel has responded enough, no need for more. We can achieve peace after 3,000 years.”

Trump to Channel 13 News:
''I think Israel has responded enough, no need for more. We can achieve peace after 3,000 years.''

— Farzad Seifikaran (@FSeifikaran) June 7, 2026

Iran has issued a notice that it has closed airspace.

Iraq has issued a NOTAM closing its airspace to operational reasons. pic.twitter.com/60W3fQv0Dr

— Faytuks Network (@FaytuksNetwork) June 7, 2026

The IDF said Iran made “a grave mistake” by attacking, said its operations against Hezbollah will continue and warned Israelis that more attacks could be launched.

IDF Spokesperson: The Iranian regime made a grave mistake when it once again chose terrorism

For more updateshttps://t.co/oKbH99n6bm pic.twitter.com/ioiGAwZNt3

— i24NEWS English (@i24NEWS_EN) June 7, 2026

Iranian media released an image it claims shows a message inscribed on the missiles fired at Israel.

The text that was written on the Iranian missiles fired at Israel tonight. https://t.co/rIQ7jaH5E8

— IRIB (Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting) (@iribnews_irib) June 7, 2026

UPDATE: 6:51 PM EDT –

Iran fired 11 missiles at Israel, according to Israel’s C14 News outlet.

הירי מאיראן: סה"כ כ-11 שיגורים מאיראן לצפון, חלקם יורטו; אין נפגעים

— C14 (@C14_news) June 7, 2026

Trump told Financial Times that Netanyahu will have no choice but to accept any deal the US negotiates with Iran, because he “calls the shots.”

“He won’t have any choice,” Trump told the outlet in a telephone interview. “I call the shots. I call all the shots. He [Netanyahu] doesn’t call the shots.”

Trump added that Iran’s strikes had not changed his desire to conclude US-Iran negotiations. “It’s not going to have any impact on the deal,” he told the FT.

“We’ll see how it ends up,” Trump continued. “But they [the missile strikes on Israel] were attacks that did not kick at all. It’s one of those things that’s been going for 3,000 years, or 47 years, depending on how you count.”

BREAKING: President Trump says Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu will have "no choice" but to accept a US deal with Iran, because he "calls the shots," per FT.

Details include:

1. "I call the shots. I call all the shots. He [Netanyahu] doesn’t call the shots," Trump said

2.…

— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) June 7, 2026

UPDATE: 9:50 PM EDT-

As we suggested would likely happen, Israel has retaliated against Iran.

“A short while ago, the Israeli Air Force struck military targets belonging to the Iranian terror regime in western and central Iran,” the IDF stated on Telegram.

UPDATE: 9:56 PM EDT –

Iranian media reported that “explosion sounds were heard in areas of Tehran, Isfahan, and Tabriz.”

Video and images have emerged on social media claiming to show the aftermath of the Israeli attacks.

Video from Isfahan as the Israeli military said it launched airstrikes on military targets in western and central Iran.

Contributed by @AZ_Intel_. pic.twitter.com/HUhQRy3b1j

— Open Source Intel (@Osint613) June 8, 2026

اللقطات الاولى من الانفجارات المشاهدة في طهران. pic.twitter.com/OYZbpyV5SY

— ZaidBenjamin زيد بنيامين (@ZaidBenjamin5) June 8, 2026

UPDATE: 10:58 PM EDT –

In a post on X, the Israeli Air Force (IAF) says it has “identified the launch of a missile from Yemen toward Israeli territory, aerial defense systems are operating to intercept the threat.”
“The public is requested to follow the Home Front Command’s defensive guidelines,” the IAF added.

צה״ל זיהה כי שוגר טיל מכיוון תימן לשטח ישראל, מערכות ההגנה פועלות ליירט את האיום.
יש לפעול לפי הנחיות פיקוד העורף.

— Israeli Air Force (@IAFsite) June 8, 2026

This is a developing story.

Contact the author: howard@twz.com

The post Iran Launches Ballistic Missile Attacks On Israel (Updated) appeared first on The War Zone.

In the latest flare-up of tension during a very shaky ‘ceasefire,’ “Iran has launched multiple drones towards the Strait of Hormuz,” a U.S. official told us. “U.S. forces have taken out at least four of them.”

The statement comes as unconfirmed reports are emerging online of explosions on Iran’s Kharg Island. The official, who spoke to us on condition of anonymity to discuss operational issues, declined comment about those claims.

Big Development

The United States Airforce just launched an intense airstrike on Kharg Island of Iran. Reportedly Air Defence & missile launch site of IRGC has been targeted. pic.twitter.com/qseXJ5g6B7

— Baba Banaras (@RealBababanaras) June 5, 2026

BREAKING: Explosions and active air defense engagement at Kharg Island, with preliminary reports of the US conducting strikes.

— The Hormuz Letter (@HormuzLetter) June 5, 2026

Kharg Island, which has come under attack before during Epic Fury, is Iran’s main oil export facility. An attack on the oil infrastructure would represent a major escalation.

News of the U.S. takedown of the drones is the latest kinetic incident in the Strait and comes amid sputtering peace talks. As we wrote last week, the U.S. struck Iranian targets and Iran launched missiles and drones at Kuwait and Bahrain in an exchange that severely damaged Kuwait International Airport, killed several people and injured scores more.

You can see video and images of damage from the June 3 attack below.

This is what Iran did in my country, Kuwait: it killed innocent civilians by bombing Kuwait International Airport.
Violating all international norms

هذا مافعلته إيران في وطني الكويت قتلت الأبرياء المدنيين بقصفها مطار الكويت الدولي
منتهكة جميع الاعراف الدولية#إيران_الشر pic.twitter.com/7MpAAnpN42

— حمد عبدالكريم السعيد (@Hamad_Alsaid) June 4, 2026

Other exchanges have occurred around the strait, where U.S. Navy ships says vessels, including their own, were fired upon, which resulted in reprisal attacks on shore targets.

UPDATE: 6:56 PM EDT –

CENTCOM confirmed U.S. forces attacked Iranian facilities and shot down Iranian drones..

“Moments ago, CENTCOM forces shot down four Iranian one-way attack drones that were launched toward the Strait of Hormuz,” the command stated on X. “The attack drones posed an immediate threat to regional maritime traffic. U.S. forces subsequently struck Iranian coastal surveillance radar sites in Goruk and on Qeshm Island to defend against further attacks. American forces remain vigilant and postured to respond to unjustified Iranian aggression in self-defense.”

Moments ago, CENTCOM forces shot down four Iranian one-way attack drones that were launched toward the Strait of Hormuz. The attack drones posed an immediate threat to regional maritime traffic. U.S. forces subsequently struck Iranian coastal surveillance radar sites in Goruk and…

— U.S. Central Command (@CENTCOM) June 5, 2026

UPDATE: 10:40 PM EDT –

In a post on X, CENTCOM claimed that “U.S. forces intercepted multiple Iranian ballistic missiles and drones launched by Iran toward the Strait of Hormuz and Gulf neighbors, June 5. “

“Iran fired seven ballistic missiles toward Kuwait and Bahrain,” the command stated. “Initial assessments indicate six of the missiles launched by Iran were intercepted and a seventh did not reach its intended target. There are currently no reports of harm to U.S. personnel, and Iranian claims of damaging U.S. 5th fleet headquarters in Bahrain are false. CENTCOM forces remain vigilant and postured to continue responding to unwarranted Iranian aggression in self-defense.

The Iranian attack took place hours after the previously mentioned CENTCOM strikes on Iranian coastal targets.

The CENTCOM post included a video showing those strikes.

سنتکام ویدیویی منتسب به حملات ساعات قبل خود به قشم و سیرک را منتشر کرد https://t.co/cXbc9ZMA1Z pic.twitter.com/HcdYM7RDLX

— Amir ebrahimi (@Amir60118403) June 6, 2026

This is a developing story.

Contact the author: howard@twz.com

The post U.S. Shoots Down Iranian Drones Launched At Strait Of Hormuz: Official (Updated) appeared first on The War Zone.

After reportedly losing dozens of MQ-9 Reaper drones while battling Iran, the Air Force on Friday confirmed to TWZ that it is planning to purchase an undisclosed number of unused ones from General Atomics, who made the aircraft. The company, however, said it has less than 10 of these drones to offer, and it remains unclear where else the Air Force can find more.

All of this continues to raise serious questions about the Air Force’s near-term ability to plug gaps left by the losses fighting against Iran and in other recent operations in and around the Middle East. The downed Reapers have a reported combined value of about $1 billion.

Furthermore, despite the top Air Force officer recently praising Reaper as “perhaps the most valuable player” in the air war against Iran, the aircraft have been in the crosshairs of service officials. They have openly questioned the drone’s survivability and, by extension, general value in future operations. The Air Force has made several half-hearted efforts, without success, to find a successor. It is now in the early stages of a new attempt at acquiring an “MQ-9 Next.” You can read more about that effort in our story here.

It will be years, if ever, before “MQ-9 Next” comes online. Meanwhile, the search is on for existing replacements.

“The USAF intends to purchase several unused MQ-9A Block 5 from GA-ASI [General Atomics Aeronautical Systems, Inc.],” a spokesperson for the service told TWZ today. “A number of MQ-9A Block 5 aircraft were manufactured based on forecasted purchases for other customers but are no longer needed. The available aircraft are currently GA-ASI owned aircraft.”

“The USAF has received funds to begin the acquisition process,” they added.

The Air Force was responding to our questions about congressional testimony from a top officer highlighting the service’s plans to backfill the combat losses. 

“We’re looking at options to buy back as many of the MQ-9As as we possibly can right now,” Air Force Lt. Gen. David Tabor, Deputy Chief of Staff for Plans and Programs, had told members of Congress at a hearing back on May 13. “So there’s a bit of a short-term effort to buy back things immediately, in this fiscal year.”

Tabor also said at that time that the Air Force’s total MQ-9A fleet had shrunk to 135 aircraft. Official budget documents say the Air Force had 165 Reapers in inventory as of the start of Fiscal Year 2026, which began on October 1 of last year. This had already marked a significant year-over-year decrease, down from 231 MQ-9As at the beginning of Fiscal Year 2025.

Despite Air Force needs, General Atomics told us the number of available Reapers is in short supply.

“Between parts in stock for new builds, and company-owned Reapers with some number of flight hours on them, there are less than 10 total ‘new’ MQ-9As available to any customers anywhere in the world,” General Atomics spokesperson C. Mark Brinkley told TWZ earlier this week. “There are some number of decommissioned Reapers out there, and some number of those could potentially be brought back into service.”

One place the Air Force won’t be able to find any Reapers is in storage. 

“The 309th Aerospace Maintenance and Regeneration Group (The Boneyard) has zero MQ-9s in storage nor have they ever regenerated a MQ-9 back into service,” the spokesperson told us.

The MQ-9A is out of production. General Atomics has moved on to the MQ-9B, and currently offers those drones in multiple configurations. Though an evolution of the original Reaper, the core B model design differs in significant ways from its predecessor. Any new Air Force purchases of drones in this broader family would have to be of the B model and worked into the existing production schedule.

How many MQ-9As the Air Force has lost in operations in and around the Middle East since January 2025 is unclear, but is understood to be substantial. As of May, “nearly 30 MQ-9 Reapers have been lost in the course” of Operation Epic Fury against Iran, Air & Space Forces Magazine reported, citing “people familiar with the matter.” This is on top of dozens of Reapers reportedly downed while conducting operations targeting Iranian-backed Houthi militants in Yemen in the past year or so.

Air Force Chief: MQ-9 Reaper ‘Most Valuable Player’ of Iran War Despite Losseshttps://t.co/qZB4xRh2jA

— Air & Space Forces Magazine (@ASForcesMag) May 21, 2026

At the hearing last month, Tabor did not provide any official accounting of Reaper losses, but did acknowledge that “we are concerned about how they’ve attrited.”

In another effort to bolster the supply of operational Reapers, the Air Force told us that while it never regenerated MQ-1 Predator drones back into service, it was repurposing parts from these aircraft that the service stopped using in 2020. There were dozens on hand after they were retired.

More than 50 were sent to the 309th Aerospace Maintenance and Regeneration Group (AMARG) “and heavily cannibalized for spare parts for the MQ-9 aircraft,” the spokesperson told us.

Questions about the status of the MQ-1 fleet arose last week after U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) acknowledged the loss of an “MQ-1” drone to Iranian fire. This has led many to question whether American forces are flying the venerable Predator again as a result of the Reaper losses.

At the time, the Air Force declined to say if it lost any of theirs and referred us to CENTCOM, which declined comment. However, on Friday, the Air Force told us that in addition to the Predators being used for parts, 20 had been transferred to the Navy. We reached out to them for comment. 

As we previously noted, it is also very possible, if not likely, that the uncrewed aircraft in question was an MQ-1C Gray Eagle, a related but different design still in active U.S. Army service. You can read more about this event in our original story here.

At the time of the incident, CENTCOM declined to tell us which variant of the MQ-1 was lost.

Regardless, the Air Force’s mad scramble to find additional Reapers highlights the value of having a high-flying, long-loitering drone that can gather intelligence and fire off munitions, no matter how slow it flies.

Contact the author: howard@twz.com

The post USAF Scrambling To Buy What Few MQ-9 Reapers It Can Find After Epic Fury Losses appeared first on The War Zone.

U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) Tuesday evening said “U.S. forces successfully defeated multiple Iranian ballistic missiles and drones” in attacks launched at allies Kuwait and Bahrain. Iran said the strikes were in response to U.S. attacks. This is yet another round of tit-for-tat strikes that have become something of regularity since the ceasefire deal was reached between the U.S. and Iran.

In a post on X, CENTCOM said “Iran launched several ballistic missiles toward regional neighbors; however, all failed to hit their intended targets. Two Iranian missiles fired at Kuwait fell short or broke apart enroute, and three missiles launched at Bahrain were immediately intercepted by U.S. and Bahrain air defense forces. Moments earlier, U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) forces shot down three one-way attack drones launched by Iran toward civilian mariners that were rightfully transiting regional waters.”

Additional video showed what appears to be Patriot munitions fired to intercept Iranian missiles.

Footage of a PATRIOT SAM battery engaging incoming Iranian ballistic missiles over Kuwait this morning.

At least 3 interception attempts are visible. pic.twitter.com/k8X7ukMZyi

— OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) June 2, 2026

American forces “also conducted self-defense strikes on an Iranian military ground control station on Qeshm Island,” CENTCOM stated. “No U.S. personnel were harmed. CENTCOM forces remain vigilant and ready to defend against unwarranted Iranian aggression during the ongoing ceasefire.”

Kuwait officials say they came under ballistic missile attack, while explosions were reported in Bahrain.

“Kuwaiti air defenses are currently confronting hostile missile and drone attacks,” Kuwait’s Army stated on X. “The General Staff of the Army notes that if explosion sounds are heard, they are the result of air defense systems intercepting the hostile attacks. Everyone is requested to adhere to the security and safety instructions issued by the competent authorities.”

تتصدى حالياً الدفاعات الجوية الكويتية لهجمات صاروخية وطائرات مسيرة معادية.

تنوه رئاسة الأركان العامة للجيش أن أصوات الانفجارات إن سمعت فهي نتيجة اعتراض منظومات الدفاع الجوي للهجمات المعادية.

يرجى من الجميع التقيد بتعليمات الأمن والسلامة الصادرة عن الجهات المختصة.… pic.twitter.com/us5KIAGcih

— KUWAIT ARMY – الجيش الكويتي (@KuwaitArmyGHQ) June 2, 2026

“The siren has been sounded,” Bahrain’s Interior Ministry stated on X. “Citizens and residents are urged to remain calm and head to the nearest safe place.”

The siren has been sounded .Citizens and residents are urged to remain calm and head to the nearest safe place.

— Ministry of Interior (@moi_bahrain) June 2, 2026

Iran said it launched retaliation strikes.

“Following the hostile actions of the U.S. in the Persian Gulf, the Strait of Hormuz, and Qeshm Island, American bases in Kuwait were hit,” the official Iranian IRIB news outlet claimed on X in a post that included video of what appears to be missiles landing.

Following the hostile actions of the U.S. in the Persian Gulf, the Strait of Hormuz, and Qeshm Island, American bases in Kuwait were hit. pic.twitter.com/iVGC0P1r3p

— IRIB (Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting) (@iribnews_irib) June 2, 2026

IRIB posted another video it claimed showed an air defense munition exploding in a civilian area. TWZ cannot independently confirm any of these claims.

BREAKING
A U.S. defense missile in Kuwait that, after failing to intercept launched missiles, fell in a non-military area pic.twitter.com/pM4iDaiY6r

— IRIB (Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting) (@iribnews_irib) June 2, 2026

The Iranian news outlet also showed video of what it said were missiles flying over Bahrain.

Missiles passing over the skies of Bahrain pic.twitter.com/AsOARa2Se7

— IRIB (Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting) (@iribnews_irib) June 2, 2026

Earlier on Tuesday, U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) announced U.S. forces “disabled an unladen oil tanker that was attempting to sail toward an Iranian port on the Arabian Gulf.” 

In a post on X, CENTCOM said it “enforced blockade measures against Botswana-flagged M/T Lexie as it transited international waters toward Kharg Island. The ship’s crew ignored repeated warnings, failing to comply with directions from U.S. forces multiple times over a 24-hour period.”

A U.S. aircraft “ultimately disabled the vessel by firing a Hellfire missile into the ship’s engine room, preventing the tanker from reaching Iran,” the command added.

This marks the sixth commercial vessel disabled by CENTCOM, which has also redirected 122 as the ceasefire with Iran continues.

You can see video of the Hellfire strike on the M/T Lexie below.

U.S. Central Command released footage from the strike with AGM-114 Hellfire air-to-ground missile against the Botswana-flagged M/T LEXIE unladen oil tanker in the Strait of Hormuz on June 2, 2026.

According to the U.S. military, the vessel attemped to break trough the American… pic.twitter.com/M93VkbArzn

— Status-6 (War & Military News) (@Archer83Able) June 2, 2026

Meanwhile, there are unconfirmed reports that Iran has also attacked Iraq as well. We have reached out to CENTCOM for more information and will update this story with any pertinent details provided.

BREAKING: Iran simultaneously carries out attacks on Bahrain, Kuwait and Iraq.

— Clash Report (@clashreport) June 2, 2026

It isn’t clear who fired on who first that set off this chain of events. The U.S. has been responding to attacks on ships in the Strait of Hormuz area, including on U.S. Navy ships, with strikes like those described on Qeshm island, but we don’t know if that was exactly the case in this instance.

This is a developing story.

UPDATE: 10:30 PM EDT –

In another post on X, CENTCOM said that an “additional wave of Iranian drones attempting to attack U.S. forces in Kuwait failed to impact intended targets tonight. U.S. Central Command air defenses successfully downed multiple drones and ensured no American personnel or assets were harmed.”

An additional wave of Iranian drones attempting to attack U.S. forces in Kuwait failed to impact intended targets tonight. U.S. Central Command air defenses successfully downed multiple drones and ensured no American personnel or assets were harmed.

— U.S. Central Command (@CENTCOM) June 3, 2026

UPDATE: 4:34 AM EDT June 3 –

Video and images are emerging showing the aftermath of Iranian attacks on Kuwait International Airport.

Footage of the damage at Kuwait International Airport caused by an Iranian missile and drone attack. https://t.co/Dwk4qfOqJf pic.twitter.com/HMgaUMqOxD

— Ariel Oseran أريئل أوسيران (@ariel_oseran) June 3, 2026

In a post on X, the official spokesman for Kuwait’s Ministry of Defense, Brigadier General Saud Abdulaziz Al-Otaibi, stated that “a number of hostile drones targeted today the passenger building (T1) at Kuwait International Airport as a result of the criminal Iranian aggression, which resulted in significant material damage to the building and injuries to a number of individuals, who received the necessary medical care.”

Al-Otaibi added that “the armed forces are monitoring the situation in coordination with the relevant authorities, and they are in a state of complete readiness to deal with any developments, and to take all necessary measures to preserve the security of the country and its stability.”

بيان رقم (63)

صرّح المتحدث الرسمي لوزارة الدفاع، العقيد الركن سعود عبدالعزيز العطوان، بأن عدداً من الطائرات المسيّرة المعادية استهدفت اليوم مبنى الركاب (T1) بمطار الكويت الدولي نتيجة العدوان الإيراني الآثم، ما أسفر عن أضرار مادية جسيمة في المبنى وإصابة عدد من الأشخاص، حيث تلقوا… pic.twitter.com/HMSd0TX7sG

— KUWAIT ARMY – الجيش الكويتي (@KuwaitArmyGHQ) June 3, 2026

Contact the author: howard@twz.com

The post Iran Launches New Attacks On Kuwait, Bahrain (Updated) appeared first on The War Zone.

The U.S. military has confirmed the loss of an “MQ-1” drone to Iranian fire this weekend. This has led many to question whether American forces are flying the venerable Predator again, some eight years after the type’s official retirement. It is also very possible, if not likely, that the uncrewed aircraft in question was an MQ-1C Gray Eagle, a related but different design still in active U.S. Army service. Regardless, rebooting U.S. Predator operations might still be an attractive course of action, especially to help plug gaps left by dozens of MQ-9 Reaper losses to Iran and the Houthis in Yemen, but actually doing it may be harder than it seems.

American forces “conducted self-defense strikes on Iranian radar and command and control sites for drones in Goruk, Iran, and Qeshm Island this weekend,” according to a brief press release that U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) issued late yesterday. “The measured and deliberate strikes occurred on Saturday and Sunday in response to aggressive Iranian actions that included the shootdown of a U.S. MQ-1 drone that was operating over international waters. U.S. fighter aircraft swiftly responded by eliminating Iranian air defenses, a ground control station, and two one-way attack drones that posed clear threats to ships transiting regional waters.”

There has been a string of tit-for-tat attacks now between the United States and Iran despite an ostensible ceasefire between the two countries. The U.S. military also remains committed to a blockade of Iranian ports, while the regime in Tehran continues to take separate action to throttle routine maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. Negotiations between the two sides toward a more definitive end to the conflict are ongoing, as well.

Thousands of U.S. service members at sea, in the skies, and from land are supporting the ongoing U.S. blockade against Iran. As of June 1, CENTCOM forces have redirected 121 commercial vessels and disabled 5 to ensure compliance. pic.twitter.com/BDtAjp0qOF

— U.S. Central Command (@CENTCOM) June 1, 2026

“No American service members were harmed,” yesterday’s release added. “CENTCOM will continue to protect U.S. assets and interests in response to unwarranted Iranian aggression during the ongoing ceasefire.”

What did Iran actually shoot down?

In response to a direct query from TWZ, CENTCOM declined to say whether the “MQ-1” mentioned in the release was a Predator or Gray Eagle. We also reached out to the U.S. Air Force to ask if it had lost a Predator over the weekend, and were directed to contact CENTCOM. We contacted the Army to ask if one of its Gray Eagles was shot down, as well, and were redirected to the Pentagon.

Army aviation units with MQ-1Cs are known to be deployed in the Middle East. In April, the Air Force notably released several pictures of Gray Eagles somewhere in the region, which misidentified them as Predators.

The AP initially reported that the drone Iran shot down was a Predator, but this appears to have been based on CENTCOM’s use of the MQ-1 designation in the press release and not confirmed. The outlet’s story originally said “the U.S. Air Force no longer flies the MQ-1 Predator, the U.S. Army still does,” which was inaccurate, and that passage no longer appears in the piece. While the Gray Eagle is derived from the Predator and has the related MQ-1C designation, it is a distinctly different design more tailored to the Army’s needs. This includes the ability to operate with a smaller logistical footprint and lower crew training requirements.

The U.S. military says it is targeting Iranian radar and drone control sites after Tehran shot down an American MQ-1 Predator drone over the weekend. Meanwhile, Kuwait says its air defenses opened fire to intercept incoming drone and missile fire. https://t.co/b6JyHHBCLa

— The Associated Press (@AP) June 1, 2026

For its part, Iran has also described what it shot down simply as an “MQ-1,” and has released a video below that it says shows the engagement, as seen through an infrared camera. However, the footage is extremely low resolution, and it is impossible to tell what type of drone it might show. Iranian authorities (as well as the Houthis) routinely release similar, but generally higher-quality clips after claimed shootdowns.

Iran’s IRGC Aerospace Force Downs US MQ-1 Drone Over Territorial Waters

Iran’s IRGC Aerospace Force released the video of detection and elimination of a US MQ-1 drone on early Sunday, after it entered Iranian territorial waters with hostile intent. https://t.co/h8cEPiBKde

— Tasnim News Agency (@Tasnimnews_EN) June 1, 2026

Officially, the Air Force stopped operating the MQ-1 Predator in 2018. As of September 2024, there were 15 MQ-1Bs in storage at the boneyard at Davis-Monthan Air Force Base in Arizona, according to data the 309th Aerospace Maintenance and Regeneration Group (AMARG) previously released. TWZ has also reached out to the Air Force for an updated inventory of Predators in storage, and to ask whether or not any retired examples have been returned to service.

In addition, TWZ has asked General Atomics, the company behind the Predator and the Gray Eagle, as well as the MQ-9 Reaper, for comment.

Factoring in MQ-9 Reaper losses

Despite not yet having an official confirmation one way or the other, it still seems more likely that what Iran shot down was a Gray Eagle, not a Predator. Still, there remains the potential for the U.S. to have resumed Predator operations, possibly on a contractor-owned and/or operated basis, or that it may be considering doing so in the near future. There is one factor in particular that could be a key driver here now, and that is MQ-9 losses.

At a recent hearing, Air Force Chief of Staff Gen. Kenneth Wilsbach had called the Reaper “perhaps the most valuable player” in the latest conflict with Iran. In early March, we commented on how it appeared MQ-9 strikes were by far the most numerous attacks featured in CENTCOM’s ‘highlight’ reels during the conflict.

MQ-9 Reapers appear do be doing a LOT of the heavy lifting against mobile ground targets and vessels in Epic Fury.

— Tyler Rogoway (@Aviation_Intel) March 5, 2026

However, in May, Air & Space Forces Magazine reported that “nearly 30 MQ-9 Reapers have been lost in the course of those operations,” citing “people familiar with the matter.” On April 9, CBS News said that tally had already risen to “up to 24” Reapers since the fighting began in February, citing unnamed U.S. officials.

This is all on top of the loss of dozens more MQ-9s to Iranian-backed Houthi militants in Yemen in recent years. The Houthis separately claimed to have shot down another U.S. Reaper just this past weekend.

pic.twitter.com/9R4F0eBdHQ
Fresh video evidence is circulating of a US MQ-9 Reaper drone being intercepted and brought down over Yemen’s Marib Governorate. Houthi sources claim responsibility. This is developing rapidly today.

— The Tectonic (@thetect0nic) May 29, 2026

Air Force Lt. Gen. David Tabor, Deputy Chief of Staff for Plans and Programs, told members of Congress at a hearing on May 13 that the service’s MQ-9 fleet had dwindled to 135 aircraft. This is down from the 165 Reapers the service said were in inventory as of the start of Fiscal Year 2026, according to official budget documents. The size of the fleet had already shrunk from 231 at the start of Fiscal Year 2025.

“We are concerned about how they’ve attrited,” Tabor said at that time, according to Air & Space Forces Magazine. “We’re looking at options to buy back as many of the MQ-9As as we possibly can right now, so there’s a bit of a short-term effort to buy back things immediately, in this fiscal year.”

“We are not divesting the MQ-9,” Secretary of the Air Force Troy Meink also said separately on May 20, per the same report from Air & Space Forces Magazine. “We have had some losses in that aircraft, and we’re working to fill those losses, but in parallel, we are looking at what is the follow-on to the MQ-9 aircraft.”

TWZ recently reported in detail on the Air Force’s latest plans, as they are known now, for a successor to the MQ-9. This effort is the latest in a series of abortive Air Force attempts to develop a Reaper replacement that have spanned more than a decade now.

It is also worth noting here that the U.S. Marine Corps has acquired its own much smaller fleet of Reapers in recent years, and plans to operate the type for the foreseeable future. The Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) also operates Reapers, and has flown Predators, at least in the past.

Last month, Air & Space Forces Magazine reported that General Atomics had “less than 10 new or company-owned MQ-9As to offer to the Air Force,” but that “there are a number of decommissioned Reapers that could be brought back online and refurbished by the company,” citing company spokesperson C. Mark Brinkley.

The Reaper, also more formally known as the MQ-9A, is otherwise out of production. General Atomics has moved on to the MQ-9B, an evolved design with significant differences from its predecessor. Any new Air Force purchases of drones in this family would have to be of the new version.

TWZ has also reached out to the Air Force with questions about Reapers in storage and any efforts to return them to service.

Could Reaper losses prompt a Predator comeback?

The scale of MQ-9 losses, as well as the continued heavy use of those drones, brings us back to the possibility of returning Predators to service, even if this has not happened as of yet. Before their official retirement in 2018, questions had been increasingly raised about the risks of flying Predators in anything but permissive airspace.

For years now, Air Force officials have regularly raised similar questions about the Reaper’s vulnerability, as highlighted by an abrupt attempt to stop buying any more of the drones back in 2020. A self-protection pod has been developed to improve the MQ-9’s survivability, but there is no evidence that it has been fielded on a wide scale despite reported moves to do so in recent years.

More recently, the Air Force has shown a willingness to accept significant MQ-9 losses. Furthermore, many of the missions that Reapers are tasked with today could still be performed, at least to a degree, by Predators with an equivalent level of risk.

The piston-engined Predator is a smaller, shorter-ranged, lighter payload, and lower-performance design overall compared to the turboprop Reaper. At the same time, this would also be mitigated by the geography of the current operating environment in the Middle East vis-a-vis Iran, where the distances between available bases and likely operating areas wouldn’t be too far. This would be especially true for sorties in airspace over and around the Strait of Hormuz. As CENTCOM said, the “MQ-1” shootdown this weekend occurred somewhere over “international waters.”

The U.S. military previously used Predators exactly this way to monitor Iranian activities in and around the Persian Gulf from bases in the region. An Iranian Su-25 Frogfoot ground attack jet notably shot at an MQ-1 flying over that body of water back in 2012. That is just one example of Iranian harassment of U.S. drone operations in that timeframe, which got to be so bad that F-22 Raptors had to be called in to ward off Tehran’s tactical jet crews.

Beyond their continued ability to conduct surveillance and reconnaissance missions, Predators can carry a pair of AGM-114 Hellfire missiles. The Hellfire continues to be a very relevant weapon, including for use against small Iranian boats, including ones capable of firing anti-ship cruise missiles or laying mines. Predators could fire them at missile and drone launchers, road-mobile air defense systems, and other Iranian assets on land, too.

Though the MQ-9 can carry a wider selection of precision-guided munitions, Hellfire has remained a key element of that drone’s arsenal, too, including in recent operations against Iran.

The video below includes a clip of an Iranian Ghadir class diesel-electric midget submarine being struck by what has been confirmed to be an AGM-114 Hellfire missile, likely fired by an MQ-9.

U.S. forces are degrading the Iranian regime's ability to project power at sea and harass international shipping. For years, Iranian forces have threatened freedom of navigation in waters essential to American, regional and global security and prosperity. pic.twitter.com/gIBN02mowh

— U.S. Central Command (@CENTCOM) March 10, 2026

Reapers can carry much more ordnance per sortie than the Predator, but the latter could still provide a useful boost in interdiction capacity even with a smaller payload. There is an argument to be made that interdiction would actually be a better role than surveillance and reconnaissance for any remaining Predators. The older drones could be treated as being more expendable than their Reaper cousins, and more readily sent to hunt targets in higher-risk environments as a result.

There is a question of what kinds of upgrades might be necessary in order to return Predators to active duty, such as new datalinks to connect to more modern networks and ground stations. We also do not know what new training might be required to operate them within the context of currently available infrastructure in the Middle East, or anywhere else.

It’s also worth noting that other branches of the U.S. military beyond the Air Force could support a return of Predators to operational service, as well. The Army was actually originally the main operator of the MQ-1, as you can read more about here.

Back in the late 2010s around the Predator’s retirement, the Air Force confirmed to TWZ that there were active discussions about transferring retired MQ-1s to the Navy, either for use by that service or the U.S. Marine Corps. There is no clear indication the Navy or the Marines operated Predators in the end. At around the same time, the Navy was helping lay the groundwork for what ultimately became the Marines’ MQ-9 fleet.

That being said, as TWZ wrote at the time, the Air Force’s engagement with the Navy underscored how the Predator still offered relevant capability in a variety of operational contexts. We also noted that the steady miniaturization of sensors and other systems could open up new possibilities for the older MQ-1s.

If it is true that there were only 15 MQ-1Bs left in storage as of 2024, there is a separate question of what happened to the many dozens of other Predators the Air Force had in inventory when the type was retired. TWZ had previously raised the additional possibility that Predators could be employed as targets for live-fire training, as well as research and development and test and evaluation activities, or even converted into one way attack munitions.

What we do know is that MQ-9 remains in very high demand in the Middle East, now further driven by operations against Iran that continue to grind on. We also know that the Air Force has sustained what it has itself described as a concerning level of Reaper losses in recent years. It is unclear how many MQ-9s are out there for the service to ‘buy back’ or when its latest plans for a successor to the Reaper might bear fruit.

Even if the U.S. military has not currently put any Predator drones back on active duty, returning even a relatively small fleet of them to service might still be worth considering as a way to meet operational needs and ease pressure on the hard-hit MQ-9 fleet.

Contact the author: joe@twz.com

The post Is The U.S. Flying MQ-1 Predator Drones Again? appeared first on The War Zone.

The pressure is mounting on the shaky ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran with an increasing pace of tit-for-tat strikes between the two foes and Iran’s suspension of peace talks after blaming Israel’s deepening advance into Lebanon. Exacerbating tensions, Tehran claimed it will “completely block” the Strait of Hormuz while threatening to close the Bab al-Mandeb Strait as well. Located at the mouth of the Red Sea, it is another critical regional chokepoint. The Strait of Hormuz has been largely closed to most traffic by Iran since not long after the launch of Epic Fury on Feb. 28.

All these actions are taking place against the backdrop of sputtering negotiations between the U.S. and Iran that have yet to achieve any tangible results.

“Given the continuation of the Zionist regime’s crimes in Lebanon and considering that Lebanon was among the preconditions for the ceasefire, and now this ceasefire has been violated on all fronts including Lebanon, the Iranian negotiation team will stop ‘dialogues and text exchanges through intermediaries,’” the IRGC-affiliated Tasnim news agency stated on Monday. The two sides had been talking through mediators in Pakistan and Qatar.

“Also, the resistance front and Iran have resolved to completely block the Strait of Hormuz and activate other fronts including the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, in order to punish the Zionists and their supporters,” the outlet added.

فوری | ایران تبادل پیام با آمریکا را در اعتراض به جنایات صهیونیست‌ها متوقف می‌کند

عزم نیروهای مسلح ایران و تمام محورهای جبهه مقاومت برای واکنش به جنایات صهیونیستها و گشودن جبهه‌های جدید

— خبرگزاری تسنیم – خبر فوری (@Tasnimbrk) June 1, 2026

Iran has been allowing some ships to transit the Strait of Hormuz through what it calls a system of fees paid for environmental and other services. Meanwhile, U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) has helped guide the passage of about 70 commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz, according to The New York Times. This involves communicating and coordinating with ships, not escorting them, CENTCOM told the publication. Most of these transits appear to be closer to Oman than Iran, the publication added.

There were no details provided by Iranian officials about how Iran would completely close the Strait of Hormuz or when such a move could begin.

According to the New York Times, citing U.S. officials, U.S. forces have guided approximately 70 commercial vessels, both ways, through the Strait of Hormuz in the last three weeks. Per the report, most of the vessels transited with their transponders off to avoid being targeted… pic.twitter.com/tfdN1YFeAp

— OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) May 31, 2026

Tasnim also did not offer specifics about Iran’s threat toward the Bab al-Mandeb Strait or what it could entail. However, the Houthi rebels of Yemen, an Iranian proxy group, waged a protracted 15-month campaign against shipping in that region starting in the fall of 2023. TWZ has previously highlighted concerns that the Houthis could resume these attacks on behalf of Iran in the current conflict. As we have noted, Houthi strikes in this area would add further global economic strain and place additional burden on U.S. forces.

With the Strait of Hormuz closed, Saudi Arabia is rerouting its oil exports through pipelines to the Red Sea. A disruption of that transit option could cause oil prices to rise much higher and more quickly than they already have, creating a cascading wave of financial impacts and shortages across the globe, and especially in Asia. Even if the Strait of Hormuz were opened today, it will still take months for the global economy to recover from the shock. Meanwhile, for Saudi Arabia, the simultaneous closure of both straits is a long-standing nightmare, a financial double-whammy.

Just the recent news of the kinetic exchanges between the U.S. and Iran and Tehran’s decision to call off talks has sent the price of oil once again shooting upwards.

After dropping to a little more than $91 per barrel partly in the wake of President Donald Trump’s unfounded claim he was lifting the U.S. blockade on Iranian ports, the price as of 11:20 a.m. EDT was once again closing in on $100 per barrel, according to OilPrice.com. It reached a high this year of more than $114 a barrel in early May.

Defending against renewed Houthi attacks could require military assets at a time when the U.S. is already heavily committed to Operation Epic Fury and its aftermath that has seen a significant amount of equipment destroyed or damaged and munitions expended. During the previous Houthi Red Sea campaign, the U.S. and allies deployed numerous warships, including the Eisenhower and Truman Carrier Strike Groups (CGS) to both defend against Houthi attacks and strike targets in Yemen. These operations resulted in a large expenditure of air defense and strike munitions, with Houthi capabilities remaining degraded, but intact after it was all over.

You can see video from some of those encounters below.

Despite the widespread publicity over Tehran’s new positions, Trump told NBC News on Monday that he ​had not heard from Iranians that ‌they were suspending talks. The president added that silence would be fine and he was ​willing to wait.

“I think we’ve been talking ​too much if you want to ⁠know the truth. I think going silent ​would be very good, and that could be ​for a long time,” the president proclaimed. “It doesn’t mean we’re going to ​go and start dropping bombs all ​over there. We’ll just go ‌silent. ⁠We’ll keep the blockade.”

“I think I can wait as long as they want,” Trump continued. “They’re losing a fortune.”

Trump told NBC News that he has not heard from Iran on its decision to suspend talks, saying, "I think we've been talking too much. I think going silent would be very good. It doesn't mean we’re going to go and start dropping bombs all over there. We’ll keep the blockade." https://t.co/ncw1G1Tko7

— Ariel Oseran أريئل أوسيران (@ariel_oseran) June 1, 2026

Meanwhile, amid all this turbulence, the U.S.-Iran negotiations remain in limbo.

Early Monday morning, Trump took to social media to claim “Iran really wants to make a deal, and it will be a good one for the U.S.A. and those that are with us.”

Iran really wants to make a deal, and it will be a good one for the U.S.A. and those that are with us. But don’t the Dumocrats, and various seemingly unpatriotic Republicans, understand that it is MUCH tougher for me to properly do my job and negotiate, when political hacks keep… pic.twitter.com/aqE6G0UKGv

— Commentary Donald J Trump Truth Social Posts On X (@TrumpTruthOnX) June 1, 2026

Iranians have pushed back on the notion that they are eager for or close to making a deal. You can read more about the reported terms and scope of the talks in our previous reporting here.

The status of US-Iran talks remained unclear Monday after Trump said negotiations were continuing, while Iranian state media reported Tehran had suspended indirect talks. https://t.co/dvHIHHATnU

— The Jerusalem Post (@Jerusalem_Post) June 1, 2026

As we mentioned earlier in this story, even before Iran reportedly called off talks, there was a heightened state of tension as the U.S. and Iran exchanged a new round of blows.

In a statement on X, U.S. Central Command said that at about 7:30 a.m. Tehran time on Monday,  “U.S. forces successfully intercepted two Iranian ballistic missiles targeting American forces based in Kuwait. These missiles were immediately defeated and no American personnel were harmed.”

The command added that it “remains vigilant and will continue to protect our forces from Iranian aggression while supporting the ongoing ceasefire.”

Last night at 11 p.m. ET, U.S. forces successfully intercepted two Iranian ballistic missiles targeting American forces based in Kuwait. These missiles were immediately defeated and no American personnel were harmed.

U.S. Central Command remains vigilant and will continue to…

— U.S. Central Command (@CENTCOM) June 1, 2026

Kuwait condemned the attack.

The Kuwaiti Foreign Ministry “affirms the State of Kuwait’s reservation of its full right to take whatever measures are necessary to preserve its security and defend its territories, holding Iran fully responsible for these heinous aggressions, in accordance with international law, the United Nations Charter, and the relevant Security Council resolutions,” it stated on X.

بيان صادر عن وزارة الخارجية
الاثنين 1 يونيو 2026

تُعرب وزارة الخارجية مجدداً عن إدانة واستنكار دولة الكويت، وبأشد العبارات، للهجمات الإيرانية الآثمة والمتكررة، لما تمثله من تصعيد خطير واعتداء مباشر على أمن دولة الكويت واستقرارها، وخرق فاضح لقواعد القانون الدولي وميثاق الأمم… pic.twitter.com/FsVqBu7phB

— وزارة الخارجية (@MOFAKuwait) June 1, 2026

Iran, for its part, claimed it launched strikes on an unnamed U.S. base in response to U.S. attacks on Iranian targets on Saturday and Sunday.

Iran’s IRGC says it struck the airbase used to launch a recent U.S. attack after a communications tower on Sirik Island was targeted earlier today.

The IRGC said designated targets were destroyed and warned any further attacks would bring a much stronger response. https://t.co/e2nS7ZgAHn pic.twitter.com/FPlPzcwK6D

— Egypt's Intel Observer (@EGYOSINT) June 1, 2026

In a post on X late Sunday, CENTCOM said it “conducted self-defense strikes on Iranian radar and command and control sites for drones in Goruk, Iran and Qeshm Island this weekend. The measured and deliberate strikes occurred on Saturday and Sunday in response to aggressive Iranian actions that included the shootdown of a U.S. MQ-1 drone that was operating over international waters. U.S. fighter aircraft swiftly responded by eliminating Iranian air defenses, a ground control station, and two one-way attack drones that posed clear threats to ships transiting regional waters.”

“No American service members were harmed,” the command stated. “CENTCOM will continue to protect U.S. assets and interests in response to unwarranted Iranian aggression during the ongoing ceasefire.”

UPDATE: 5:43 PM EDT –

Netanyahu says “he spoke this evening with President Trump and told him that if Hezbollah does not stop firing at our cities and citizens – Israel will strike terrorist targets in Beirut,” according to the Israeli prime minister’s office. “This position of ours remains unchanged. Concurrently, the IDF will continue to operate as planned in southern Lebanon.”

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu:
“I spoke this evening with President Trump and told him that if Hezbollah does not stop firing at our cities and citizens – Israel will strike terrorist targets in Beirut.

This position of ours remain unchanged.

Concurrently, the IDF will…

— Prime Minister of Israel (@IsraeliPM) June 1, 2026

The conversation came after Trump claimed on Truth Social that: “I had a conversation with Bibi Netanyahu today, asking him not to go into a major raid of Beirut, Lebanon. He turned his Troops around. Thank you Bibi! I also had a conversation with Representatives of the Leaders of Hezbollah, and they agreed to stop shooting at Israel, and its soldiers. Likewise, Israel agreed to stop shooting at them. Let’s see how long that lasts — Hopefully it will be for ETERNITY.”

"I had a very productive call with Prime Minister Bibi Netanyahu, of Israel, and there will be no Troops going to Beirut… I had a very good call with Hezbollah, and they agreed that all shooting will stop." – President Donald J. Trump pic.twitter.com/DJhysrmVnO

— The White House (@WhiteHouse) June 1, 2026

Meanwhile, Hezbollah continued firing on Israeli troops.

“Following the sirens that sounded a short while ago in the area of Metula, a launch was identified falling adjacent to IDF soldiers operating in southern Lebanon,” IDF stated on Telegram. “No injuries were reported.”

Other sirens heard in northern Israel, meanwhile, were determined to be false alarms, according to IDF.

BREAKING: Incoming rocket sirens sound in northern Israel, hours after Trump announced Hezbollah agreed to cease attacks on Israeli territory. pic.twitter.com/visWa1gVa4

— Ariel Oseran أريئل أوسيران (@ariel_oseran) June 1, 2026

UPDATES

As we noted earlier in our story, Iran is using the escalation of the Israeli-Hezbollah fight as a reason to walk away from peace talks, at least for now.

The move came after Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Monday ordered attacks on what he called “terror targets” in the Hezbollah stronghold of the Dahieh section of Beirut. 

“Together with the Minister of Defense, I have instructed the IDF to strike terrorist targets in Beirut,” Netanyahu announced. “There will not be a situation in which Hezbollah attacks our cities and our citizens, and its terrorist headquarters in Beirut, in Dahiyeh, remains out of bounds.”

The Israeli leader added that “we are continuing to deepen our operational activity on the ground in southern Lebanon and are eliminating Hezbollah strongholds. Hezbollah is on the run. We are determined to restore security to the residents of the north, just as we did for the residents of the south.”

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu:
"Together with the Minister of Defense, I have instructed the IDF to strike terrorist targets in Beirut. There will not be a situation in which Hezbollah attacks our cities and our citizens, and its terrorist headquarters in Beirut, in Dahiyeh,… pic.twitter.com/g93PGk19aY

— Prime Minister of Israel (@IsraeliPM) June 1, 2026

Netanyahu’s statement followed Israel proclaiming that it is operating north of the Litani River, a traditional demarcation line for Israeli incursions into Lebanon. Advancing north of the river marks a large escalation and the first time Israel has been that far from its border since withdrawing from southern Lebanon in 2000.

The IDF on Sunday announced it captured Beaufort Castle on Sunday. Overlooking the Beaufort Ridge on the Litani, the castle was once home to Crusaders, seized by them in 1139.

Footage of IDF forces taking Beaufort Castle in southern Lebanon. pic.twitter.com/D8Vr0qVfQH

— Amit Segal (@AmitSegal) May 31, 2026

Netanyahu claimed the latest battle over the ancient structure was a victory for Israel.

“The capture of Beaufort is a dramatic stage and a dramatic change in the policy we are leading,” Netanyahu postulated. “We have broken the barrier of fear. We are taking the initiative. We are operating on all fronts – in Syria, in Gaza, in Lebanon. We have established security zones beyond our borders to protect our communities.”

הלוחמים הגיבורים שלנו כבשו את הבופור ואנחנו ממשיכים עד שנשלים את המשימה pic.twitter.com/j0oBy2z9cG

— Benjamin Netanyahu – בנימין נתניהו (@netanyahu) May 31, 2026

An unspecified aircraft fired an AGM-114 Hellfire missile into the engine room of a Gambia-flagged merchant vessel trying to run the blockade, CENTCOM said in an X post on Sunday.

CENTCOM forces “observed M/V Lian Star transiting international waters toward an Iranian port on the Gulf of Oman and issued more than 20 warnings while informing the vessel it was in violation of the U.S. blockade” on May 29, the command stated. “A U.S. aircraft disabled the vessel by firing a Hellfire missile into the ship’s engine room after Lian Star’s crew failed to comply. The ship is no longer transiting to Iran.”

Since the blockade went into effect April 13, “U.S. forces have disabled five commercial vessels and redirected 116 to fully enforce the blockade as a ceasefire with Iran remains in effect,” CENTCOM added.

Other ships have been stopped from running the blockade by having bombs dropped down their smoke stacks, fighters firing 20mm cannon shells at their rudders and inert rounds from a destroyer’s five-inch gun blasting their engine rooms.

A U.S. military aircraft fired a Hellfire missile into a ship’s engine room to prevent it from breaking through the American blockade of Iranian ports. U.S. forces issued more than 20 warnings to the Gambia-flagged ship.

Read more at: https://t.co/PHz1HnlxHk

— Stars and Stripes (@starsandstripes) June 1, 2026

Further highlighting the ongoing danger to shipping in and around the Strait of Hormuz, a cargo vessel transiting the Gulf about 40 nautical miles southeast of Umm Qasr, Iraq, has been hit by an unknown projectile on its starboard side, causing a large explosion, the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) reported on Monday.

UKMTO said it was unaware of any immediate environmental impact.

Since the launch of Epic Fury, UKMTO has received 53 reports of incidents affecting vessels operating in and around the Arabian Gulf, Strait of Hormuz (SOH), and Gulf of Oman. There have been 29 reported attacks, 22 reported suspicious activities and two reported hijackings.

UKMTO WARNING 063-26

Click here to view the full warninghttps://t.co/RyUM9BRf69#MaritimeSecurity #MarSec pic.twitter.com/tZtykTLbyN

— UKMTO Operations Centre (@UK_MTO) June 1, 2026

Iran claims it produced a new fast attack speedboat for the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy (IRGCN). Dubbed the Rajab 27th, the semi-official Iranian Mehr News Agency described the vessel as a “fast attack watercraft featuring a trimaran hull design, which enhances stability and maneuverability in challenging maritime conditions.”

Mehr also said that the Rajab 27th is “capable of launching two sea-based cruise missiles with a range of 700 kilometers.”

The vessel, stated Mehr, is designed to conduct operations in sea states with wave heights of up to nearly 10 feet, the outlet added.

The unveiling of the new speedboat “highlights the continued development of the IRGC Navy’s fast-attack and missile-equipped maritime capabilities, which play a key role in Iran’s naval defense strategy and operations in southern waters,” Mehr posited.

TWZ cannot independently verify the Iranian claim, though it should be noted that the IRGC has invested heavily in its fleet of small boats for decades as TWZ has explored in the past. In addition to being armed with anti-ship cruise missiles, as well as artillery rockets and other weapons, they can also be used to lay naval mines. While the president claimed that 159 Iranian ships have been destroyed, the IRGC still has a large number of these small vessels.

The images below, taken during the unveiling ceremony, show glimpses of the Rajab 27th with what appear to be a missile container on either side of the boat.

Iran also claims it has restored gas production at three offshore platforms in the South Pars gas field, the head of the Pars Oil and Gas Company has told state media. As we previously reported, the facility was attacked by Israel in March.

Touraj Dehqani said on Sunday that the platforms had not been damaged in the attacks, Iran’s official IRNA news agency claimed.

“Dehqani said production ⁠from the three platforms ⁠was being ⁠routed to other processing plants in the region while repairs ‌continued at damaged facilities,” Al Jazeera noted.

Iran has restored gas production at three offshore platforms ⁠in the South Pars gas field that had been forced to halt output after Israeli attacks disrupted processing capacity ⁠at some onshore facilities, Iranian state media reports citing the chief executive ⁠of the Pars… pic.twitter.com/SGyTCRa2yH

— Al Arabiya English (@AlArabiya_Eng) May 31, 2026

Contact the author: howard@twz.com

The post U.S.-Iran Ceasefire On The Brink After Tit-For-Tat Attacks (Updated) appeared first on The War Zone.

President Donald Trump on Friday announced he was lifting the U.S. blockade on Iranian ports enacted last month. The move comes amid media reports and administration messaging that Washington and Tehran appear to be drawing closer to a deal that could lead to ending the conflict. Iranian officials have rejected that notion. TWZ cannot confirm either side’s assertions.

“Ships caught in the Strait due to our amazing and unprecedented Naval Blockade, which will now be lifted, may start the process of ‘heading home!’” Trump proclaimed on Truth Social, referring to the Strait of Hormuz. The strategic chokepoint has been largely closed to most traffic by Iran since not long after the launch of Epic Fury on Feb. 28.

pic.twitter.com/kTepK9K1Lh

— Rapid Response 47 (@RapidResponse47) May 29, 2026

Trump’s comments may reflect a still unsigned Memorandum of Agreement with Iran that paves the way for reopening the Strait and is designed to create negotiating space to deal with the larger issues of Iran’s nuclear ambitions.

“Iran must agree that they will never have a Nuclear Weapon or Bomb,” the U.S. leader added. “The Hormuz Strait must be immediately open, no tolls, for unrestricted shipping traffic, in both directions. All water mines (bombs), if any, will be terminated (we have removed, through detonation, numerous such mines with our great underwater mine sweepers. Iran will complete the immediate removal and/or detonation of any mines that are left, which will not be many!).”

Last month, the head of U.S. Central Command stated that he was deploying uncrewed underwater vehicles (UUVs) to the region for the counter-mine effort. UUVs are a critical part of modern minesweeping operations.

“The Strait of Hormuz is an international sea passage and an essential trade corridor that supports regional and global economic prosperity,” Adm. Brad Cooper said in an April 11 media release. “Additional U.S. forces, including underwater drones, will join the clearance effort in the coming days.”

The Navy has various types of uncrewed undersea vehicles, remotely operated vehicles and an airborne mine neutralization system to perform mine sweeping operations. You can read more about these systems and how they work in our story about minesweepers here.

Trump ordered the blockade on April 13 to create economic pressure on Iran by limiting its ability to export oil or import needed weapons or other materiel. 

“As of May 29, 115 commercial vessels have been redirected to ensure no commerce enters or leaves Iranian ports,” CENTCOM said in a post Friday morning about an hour before Trump made his announcement about the blockade.

U.S. forces continue to enforce the blockade against Iran. As of May 29, 115 commercial vessels have been redirected to ensure no commerce enters or leaves Iranian ports. pic.twitter.com/ioKe4A6p7T

— U.S. Central Command (@CENTCOM) May 29, 2026

Trump did not spell out the mechanics for ending the blockade and CENTCOM declined to say what Trump’s announcement means for the assets arrayed around the region to enforce it. The command referred us to the White House, which did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

It is also unclear why Trump would lift the blockade at such a critical time, before any agreement is signed. According to various media reports, such a move would have been in conjunction with Iran easing its restrictions on Strait shipping. However, Iranian officials have insisted that has yet to happen. In essence, the U.S. lifting the blockade on Iran would do nothing for mariners trapped in the Persian Gulf unless Iran also lifts its threats to attack ships transiting the waterway without its permission.

According to Axios, the memorandum between Iran and the U.S. calls for the following:

• The U.S. naval blockade will also be lifted, but that will happen in proportion to the restoration of commercial shipping, a U.S. official said. The U.S. would also issue some sanctions waiver to allow Iran to sell oil freely.
• The MOU will include an Iranian commitment not to pursue a nuclear weapon, the officials said. It will also state that the first issues to be negotiated during the 60-day window will be how to dispose of Iran’s highly enriched uranium and how to address Iranian enrichment.

The U.S. will commit to discuss sanctions relief and the release of frozen Iranian funds as part of the negotiations, the publication added.

• The MOU will also include a discussion of a mechanism to help Iran start receiving goods and humanitarian aid.
• The MOU would also state that the war between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon would end — an issue on which Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu have had at least one tense discussion.

In addition to stating that he lifted the blockade, Trump also claimed in his Truth Social post that the U.S. and Iran reached an understanding on Tehran’s supply of highly enriched uranium.

“The enriched material, sometimes referred to as ‘Nuclear Dust,’ which is buried deep underground with virtually collapsed mountains, caused by our powerful B2 Bomber attack 11 months ago, sitting on top of it, will be unearthed by the United States (which, it is agreed, is the only Country, along with China, with the mechanical capability of doing so!), in close coordination and conjunction with the Islamic Republic of Iran, plus the International Atomic Energy Agency, and DESTROYED. No money will be exchanged, until further notice,” Trump asserted. “Other items, of far less importance, have been agreed to.”

Iranian officials have rejected Trump’s claims.

“No final understanding has been reached between Iran and the US so far,” according to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC)-connected Tasnim News Agency.

“Trump’s post follows his usual pattern of one-sided, self-aggrandizing statements,” the outlet added. “His claims about lifting the naval blockade should be viewed with skepticism—and even if implemented, it would merely mark the cessation of one ceasefire violation, as the blockade should never have been imposed in the first place.”

“Trump’s nuclear claims are baseless, as no details on that issue have been discussed,” Tasnim posited. “His insistence on not releasing Iran’s blocked funds only deepens Tehran’s doubts about Washington’s seriousness.”

No final understanding has been reached between Iran and the US so far, according to Tasnim News Agency.

According to the report, Trump's post follows his usual pattern of one-sided, self-aggrandizing statements. pic.twitter.com/bRDZfjGT7K

— Press TV (@PressTV) May 29, 2026

In his post, Trump said that he “will be meeting now, in the Situation Room, to make a final determination,” on the agreement with Iran.

This is a developing story.

UPDATE: 2:36 PM EDT –

Trump “left a two-hour meeting on a possible deal with Iran without making a decision,” The New York Times reported, citing a senior administration official.

The administration “believes it is close to an agreement but there are still certain matters being debated including the unfreezing of funds for the Iranians,” the newspaper added.

NYT: "President Trump’s meeting in the Situation Room lasted about two hours, but the president did not reach a decision on any new deal with #Iran, according to a senior administration official who spoke on condition of anonymity to speak about internal deliberations.

"The…

— Jason Brodsky (@JasonMBrodsky) May 29, 2026

In the wake of Trump’s claims and media reports about negotiations with Iran, some positive economic news is emerging.

“Stocks rose in afternoon trading on Wall Street Friday, adding to the all-time highs they set a day earlier,” CBS News reported. “The S&P 500 rose 0.2% Friday. The index is coming off six gains in a row and is headed for a ninth straight winning week, which would be the longest such streak since 2023.”

The Dow Jones Industrial Average “rose 382 points, or 0.8%, as of 12:01 p.m. Eastern,” the outlet added. “The Nasdaq composite rose 0.2%. Every major index is on track for records and to close out May with solid gains.”

Of course, all that could change should talks break down and major hostilities resume.

"U.S. stock markets are surging toward new records as of May 29, 2026, driven by breakthrough reports of a potential $300 billion peace and reconstruction framework between the U.S. and Iran"

Well?https://t.co/q9OoxkZYhz

— Don Keyhoty (@dkearnsjr) May 29, 2026

UPDATE: 3:24 PM EDT –

The United Arab Emirates “carried out dozens of airstrikes against Iran beginning in the early days of the war and continuing through the day after the April cease-fire was announced,” The Wall Street Journal reported, citing people familiar with the matter. This represents a “deeper involvement than was previously known in the air campaign led by the U.S. and Israel,” the publication added.

The attacks were conducted in coordination with the U.S. and Israel, both of which provided intelligence, the people said. “They included targets on Qeshm and Abu Musa islands in the Strait of Hormuz; Bandar Abbas; the oil refinery on Lavan island in the Persian Gulf; and the Asaluyeh petrochemical complex,” the Journal continued.

During the Iran War, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) carried out dozens of airstrikes against Iran in coordination with Israel and the United States, beginning in the early days of the war and continuing through the day after the ongoing ceasefire was announced, targeting both… pic.twitter.com/FvyIYVw2qk

— OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) May 29, 2026

UPDATE: 3:47 PM EDT –

Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf says “Tehran secures its diplomatic advantages through missiles rather than talks,” according to the official Iranian Press TV news outlet.

قاليباف: لا نكسب الامتيازات عبر المفاوضات بل نكسبها عبر الصواريخ#أخبار pic.twitter.com/60reuTxETb

— قناة المسيرة (@TvAlmasirah) May 29, 2026

UPDATE: 5:03 PM EDT –

NBC News is reporting that the U.S. military “has not confirmed that Iran placed mines in the Strait of Hormuz despite continued searches of the critical waterway.” The network cited two U.S. officials and a person familiar with the matter, adding to growing confusion around the war.

Around the start of the war in February, “U.S. intelligence officials believed that Iran placed mines on the southern side of the strait either before the conflict began or in its early days, the sources said,” NBC added. “They said there have also been numerous intelligence reports from the United States and its allies about Iran placing mines in various locations in the strait.”

Military searches using underwater drones, water robots and manned and unmanned aircraft have found some objects that could be mines, but none have been definitively identified, the outlet continued.

“If anything, the threat has been far less robust than we had feared,” the person familiar told NBC.

The lack of confirmed evidence “raises key questions about the war, which is set to enter its fourth month,” the network posited.

U.S. has not confirmed that Iran placed mines in the Strait of Hormuz, sources say
The U.S. military has not definitively identified any mines during repeated searches of the waterway, raising questions about how ‘robust’ the threat may be, sources say.https://t.co/als5U3naYI

— Giovanni Staunovo (@staunovo) May 29, 2026

UPDATE: 6:20 PM EDT –

The White House replied to our query about when Trump will make a decision on the MOU with Iran.

“The Situation Room meeting has concluded and lasted approximately two hours,” a White House official told us. “President Trump will only make a deal that is good for America and satisfies his redlines. Iran can never possess a nuclear weapon.”

UPDATE: 7:00 PM EDT –

U.S. Navy Central Command (NAVCENT) issued guidance Friday afternoon that the “military blockade of Iranian ports remains in effect restricting all traffic inbound and outbound from these ports. Vessels violating the blockade by conducting or participating in ship-to-ship transfers are also in violation of the blockade.”

Enforcement actions include “disabling and destructive fires upon vessels who do not demonstrate immediate compliance with blockading forces,” NAVCENT stated. “Vessels subject to blockade enforcement should continue compliance with direction from blockading forces. Failure to immediately comply may result in rapid escalation to disabling or destructive fire.”

In addition, aircraft and ships traversing the identified area “are advised to navigate with caution and avoid navigation within this zone, if possible,” the NAVCENT notice explained. “The blockade is being enforced strictly and rapidly. While the maritime warning zone is not intended to impede neutral or merchant shipping, vessels should make their intentions clear, particularly demonstrating that they are not intending to visit/depart from an Iranian port. If vessels do not comply with blockading forces immediately upon being contacted, they risk being fired upon. Vessels are free to navigate international waters.”

However, “the establishment of the warning zone is intended to provide notice that dangerous military operations are taking place from within these locations and the U.S. Navy cannot guarantee the safety of neutral or merchant shipping,” NAVCENT additionally cautioned. “Ships or aircraft traversing the area that threaten U.S. naval forces may be subject to proportional measures in self-defense. Ships and aircraft should maintain a listening watch on VHF channel 16 and be prepared to respond to any hails or queries from U.S. military forces.”

In addition to the potential use of self-defense measures, “aircraft and vessels may put themselves at risk from misidentification by forces hostile to the U.S. Recommend aircraft and ships keep clear of the designated area. Vessels continuing to transit the areas should maintain a standoff of 30 nautical miles from U.S. units to reduce risk of being mistaken as a threat.”

JMIC Advisory Note: 006-26 (Blockade Reminder)

Click here to view the full advisory notehttps://t.co/Hp4vuJbzue#MaritimeSecurity #MarSec pic.twitter.com/jgc9HPgz0S

— UKMTO Operations Centre (@UK_MTO) May 29, 2026

The Friday afternoon NAVCENT notification followed one issued around noon warning that military operations “will be conducted within the area north of the Musandam Peninsula in the Strait of Hormuz (SOH).”

The peninsula, part of the United Arab Emirates, juts out into the Strait about 50 miles from the southern coast of Iran and about 30 miles southeast of Iran’s Qeshm Island. It is the main chokepoint in the Strait.

“Iran continues to attempt illegal control of the Strait of Hormuz, to include dangerous and illegal mining that places ships and mariners at risk,” NAVCENT warned. “The United States is committed to freedom of navigation. As a result, the U.S. Navy Central Command is providing notice to mariners and airmen that dangerous military activities will be taking place.”

JMIC Advisory Note: 005-26 / May 29 2026

Click here to view the full advisory notehttps://t.co/5Betnixlk7#MaritimeSecurity #MarSec pic.twitter.com/pEAvhEJOd3

— UKMTO Operations Centre (@UK_MTO) May 29, 2026

Contact the author: howard@twz.com

The post Trump Declares He Is Lifting The Naval Blockade On Iran (Updated) appeared first on The War Zone.

“They’re shooting smoke at protesters.”

“They broke doors.”

“They brought an armored vehicle.”

In Aarhus, Denmark, Hemad Nazari lay in bed, refreshing his phone.

It was early evening in Iran on January 8, when the messages began arriving from Rasht, the northern city where he grew up.

Nearly two hours later, another message appeared: “We are trapped in our home.”

Then the messages stopped.

For the next eight days, Hemad heard nothing from his family.

He wasn’t the only one. Several million Iranians are part of an educated, relatively prosperous diaspora spread across the world, particularly North America and Europe, a diaspora that grew from the mass emigration of professionals and intellectuals after the 1979 Iranian revolution.

Nazari lives in Aarhus, Denmark’s second-largest city. He works for a real estate company. He’s a photographer, an active part of the local climbing community, and over the past year, he has been cycling across the world with his girlfriend.

It looks and feels like freedom. And in many ways, it is.

But Nazari hasn’t set foot in Iran for eight years. In that time, he has met his parents three times — twice in Turkey, once in Nepal.

As for now, with a nationwide internet blackout still in effect amid a flickering, faltering peace process, he can, like everyone else around the world, only watch — and wait.

Hemad Nazari left Iran in 2016, at 27. He was not at the time a political exile. He was a civil engineer with a steady job and a passport that made most borders difficult to cross. He wanted to travel. To see the world. To live somewhere else for a while.

The sanction-ridden Iranian economy was in a state of collapse. Nazari’s salary, once worth a few hundred dollars a month, shrank rapidly as the currency fell. Saving money became meaningless. Planning a future felt abstract — a concept more than a tangible goal.

So he left. He went to Vietnam first. Then Nepal, Georgia, Turkey. What began as travel, slowly turned into something more permanent.

“I didn’t leave because I thought Iran would change,” he told me. “I left because I could see that it wouldn’t.”

And it wasn’t because people were satisfied, or afraid of change. The January protests, in which many thousands of Iranians were killed, were no eruption, no sudden flaring of anger.

Since 2019, Iran has experienced three major waves of mass protest. That year, demonstrations sparked by a sudden rise in fuel prices spread rapidly across the country. The response was immediate. There was, typically, a near-total internet shutdown and, according to a Reuters investigation, as many as 1,500 people may have been killed during the crackdown. Human rights groups said more than 10,000 people were arrested during and after the protests, with many of them held incommunicado and at risk of being tortured or facing capital punishment.

The demonstrations ultimately collapsed under isolation and fear.

For Nazari, whose travels had enabled him to put distance between himself and his homeland, the 2019 protests made it apparent that Iran was no longer an option for him, no longer a place he wanted to call home. He was not a persona non grata. There was no letter. No summons. No official declaration. Nothing that could be quoted or appealed.

Instead, he had changed.

When the internet inside Iran is shut down, information can only escape through fragments: phone calls, short videos, people with rare access still intact. From abroad, Iranians like Nazari become intermediaries by default. He translated. Shared. Verified. Some of his posts were picked up by Persian-language television channels broadcasting from outside Iran, including BBC Persian and Iran International. Channels watched closely by the authorities.

Nazari did not think much of it at first. He was not an activist by profession. He did not belong to an organization. He was simply using his name, his language, his access. But others who had said less had been detained on arrival in Iran. Cartoonists. Writers. Ordinary social media users. Some disappeared into prison for years. Some emerged broken. Some did not emerge at all.

“You don’t need to be told,” Hemad says about knowing he couldn’t go back. “You understand.”

In early 2020, after Iranian forces shot down a Ukrainian passenger plane and initially denied responsibility, crowds returned to the streets. Once again, arrests followed. So did the silence.

Hemad Nazari’s activity increased again. His real name was public. His face was visible; he didn’t hide. It was a choice he made despite the risk not just to himself, but to his family. “If they can’t get to you,” he told me, “they get to the people around you.”

Since then, eight years have passed.

“It’s not that I chose not to go to Iran,” he says. “It’s that every time I tried, the door closed again.” He does not refer to it as exile. But, in a manner of speaking, he had been made stateless, effectively stopped from going home, from seeing his family, from resuming the life he knew.

By  late December 2025, daily life in Iran once again became untenable. Food prices surged, paychecks were worth less every day, and families thought only about short term survival, unable to think even a month ahead.

According to Nazari, official inflation figures — though already extremely high — failed to capture the reality on the ground. By February, he told me, the cost of basic goods rivaled those in Denmark. Wages, he said, stagnated “at around $110 or $120 a month, with many people earning much less than that.” The minimum wage, the official figures from Iran’s Supreme Labor Council show, increased by 45% and still only reached $110 per month.

“The protests were fuelled by the economy,” Hemad says. “When shopkeepers and traders joined, it was a sign that frustration had reached a boiling point. But people don’t just want better prices. They want freedom. They want new leadership.”

In Rasht, his hometown in northern Iran, even families with children took to the streets in protest. “In my city, a lot of mosques are gone,” he says. “They burned them down. That tells you something.” What struck Nazari most, though, was not only who was protesting, but what they were saying, what they appeared to want. 

“For the first time, the main chant on the street was the name of the prince,” he told me. “The son of the former shah: Reza Pahlavi.” Nazari is quick to stress that he himself is “principally a believer in democracy.” But the chants were telling. 

“For 40 years, only loyalists dared utter the name Pahlavi. Now it’s spoken openly across all layers of society,” It was not about restoring the past. Instead, suggests Nazari, “for the first time, we had a plan.” People, he says, “were asking, ‘what happens if the regime collapses?’ And for the first time, there was an answer.”

In January, there was, as Nazari describes it, a rare sense of readiness among people he knew inside Iran. Friends who had never protested before were sending messages saying they would go. Family members spoke with a kind of cautious hope. This time, it felt different. It felt like change was possible.

Two days earlier, the son of the former shah had issued a public call for people to take to the streets on January 8 and 9 — not to follow a detailed program, but to say openly what they had long been afraid to say. 

From Denmark, Nazari watched the buildup hour by hour. On January 8, as protests reached their peak, the internet went dark. The blackout was not unprecedented. Iran’s authorities had used these tactics before. Inevitably, as access disappeared, reports of mass arrests and the use of live ammunition to dispel crowds spread through the few remaining channels still connected to the outside world. 

In Rasht, Nazari’s close friends sent him a video from their apartment window. Smoke drifted through the street. Shouting echoed between buildings. Gunfire cut through the noise.

During the blackout, Nazari continued to receive fragments of information — through people with Starlink terminals, through friends who still had limited access. By January 10, the informal network of activists and diaspora Iranians he was part of believed that at least 2,000 people had been killed.

Eventually, his mother managed to call him. “We’ve been trying to reach you,” she said. With international charges for calls piling up every second, they had been trying to call him for days. Since that brief call, contact has been sporadic. A snatched few minutes. And then silence again.

“People showed everything they had,” Nazari says of the protests. “They did what they could do.” He’s trying not to romanticize what happened in January, he tells me. He’s not saying, he insists, that the protests were heroic. “Iranians,” he says, “are just desperate.” As for Nazari, he tells me up until the U.S. and Israel attacked Iran, he was “constantly debating whether to go home.” Right now, he adds, “it could have severe consequences, potentially a death sentence.” But, he pauses, “if it comes to civil war, I will go. My life doesn’t matter.”

For years, Nazari believed — as many Iranians did — that pressure, negotiations, sanctions, or appeals to international institutions might eventually force the regime to change. Over time, that belief had eroded. By January, he says, “it was gone.” It’s why he supported the attacks on Iran by Israel and the U.S., the execution of Ayatollah Khamenei and key regime figures.

“I’ve been saying for years that they are not going to leave peacefully,” he says. “They will fight. If the choice is that many people die, including me and my family, but the country becomes free — and then in 10 years we are back as a people, it will be worth it.”

He stops himself.

“I don’t say this because I like death, I say it because I don’t see another way. There is no peaceful path left.”

But  the hope Nazari felt when Donald Trump said the United States would respond forcefully if Iranian authorities continued killing their own people, has also now died.

On February 28, when U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iranian leadership and critical infrastructure began, some diaspora Iranians gathered to celebrate what they saw as the fall of a regime figurehead they had opposed for decades. Others responded with shock, caution, or grief, warning of what might follow.

In Denmark, where roughly 25,000 people of Iranian origin live, that divide played out in public. In Aarhus, several hundred Iranian Danes gathered in the city center with flags, music and open calls for regime change. Some thanked the U.S. and Israel for the strikes. At the same time, a pro-regime memorial for Ayatollah Khamenei in Copenhagen drew around 200 participants.

Their response to U.S. actions were playing out in a country where the broad view of the U.S. as a friend and force for good in the world had shifted sharply. In Denmark, as war in Iran broke out, people were still thinking of Greenland and Trump’s threats to annex the territory. In a January 2026 poll, 60% of Danes said they now see the U.S. as an opponent rather than an ally, while just 17% still considered it an ally.

Among Iranians, inside Denmark as in the wider diaspora, this ambivalence towards the U.S. is all too familiar. In a recent article in the Dagbladet Information, Iranian-born activist Nahid Riazi warned against celebrating a war that seemed to have little to do with emancipation for Iranians.

“Who says that war brings freedom?” she wrote. “It is us who are being hit. It is our children who are being destroyed.” 

Nezari says he has heard this argument. He does not dismiss it. But, he asks, “what is the alternative?” If the war stops, he says, “and the regime stays, how do you guarantee they won’t keep killing people like they have since 1979? How do you guarantee they won’t start the street executions again?”

Trump, despite the failure of the first 21 hours of peace talks in Pakistan, continues to say the war is “very close to over,” that the Iranian government wants to make a deal. A deal, presumably, that enables them to stay in power.

The Islamic Republic may have been dealt a devastating blow, but it remains intact. Its leadership structure has shifted but not collapsed. To Nazari, that does not show resilience so much as the nature of the system itself.

He rejects the idea that the Islamic Republic functions like a government in any conventional sense. It behaves, he says, more like a cartel or an armed network — something held together not by institutions, but by force and succession. Too many powerful men remain alive, still able to operate. And a system like this, he argues, does not surrender because its center has been hit. It keeps going until every center is removed.

“Not until all the heads are cut off,” he says.

But U.S. attempts to bully the world into joining a war where the goals remain so varied and nebulous have been unsuccessful. The popularity of the war inside the U.S., even among Trump supporters, is low. The uncomfortable question now is what comes next — and whether anything has truly changed.

Still, Nazari argues that the current state of purgatory, in which the war is neither ongoing nor over, is not evidence of failure, but of what was always going to happen.

“We were not living in Iran,” he says. “We were living in a military compound with cities in between.” Even if negotiations resume, he believes something irreversible has already happened. The fact that the regime’s leaders now have to hide underground means, to him, that there is no real return to the old order.

“There’s no going back to how it was,” he says. But for now, Nazari is still in Denmark. His family is still in Iran. He still holds his phone close, hoping for news. Any news. Like Iranian exiles everywhere, and like the war itself, he is trapped in stasis, caught between distance and a sense of responsibility to his homeland — deeply involved, fundamentally powerless, yet unable to look away.

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