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Trump, not Netanyahu, has the cards. he should play them

By Josh PAUL

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Upcoming Israeli elections give the U.S. president leverage he can use.

The U.S.-Israel relationship has never been less popular in America, but at the same time that support for Israel is cratering in American public opinion, Congress appears to be fast-tracking an effort to entrench the relationship and give Israel enduring access to both our most sensitive technologies and our most sensitive intelligence—in exchange for nothing more, it seems, than a thank you note from Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

At the same time, the U.S. is at war, stuck in an unpopular and unnecessary conflict whose political and economic impacts create mounting and unanticipated obstacles for the Trump administration’s agenda. While this week Trump has seemed intent on escalating the conflict, he’s also shown a desire to end it—and a recognition of one major roadblock to peace. The president’s frustration at Netanyahu—who played a key role in convincing him to enter the conflict, and who can now act as a spoiler to prevent him from exiting it—has become evident in recent weeks.

Given the challenges posed by the Israeli leader, a common complaint on both the right and the left of American politics is that Israel exerts far too much power in U.S. politics. But a closer look at the facts demonstrates that Netanyahu is actually in an incredibly weak position—or would be, if the administration was willing to assess and deal with the entire U.S.-Israel portfolio holistically.

Trump’s interests are relatively clear: to extract the U.S. from the war in Iran, reduce Israel’s dependency on American military support, and get Israel to make real progress towards Palestinian self-determination in order to have a chance of getting the Abraham Accords back on track. As Trump’s apparent frustration with Netanyahu entered the headlines in recent weeks, the president seemed to understand the ways in which Israel’s prime minister undermines these interests.

Netanyahu’s own objectives are not shaped as much by geopolitics, or even national interest, as much as they are by the growing urgency of presenting himself as a winner in time for Israel’s elections this fall. To do this, he has to leverage U.S. military power to deliver something resembling a win in Iran (which seems less and less likely), do the same in Lebanon (now a quagmire), and demonstrate that despite the collapse of U.S. public support and the foreseeable end of U.S. grant military assistance, he has guaranteed a means of enduring Israeli influence in Washington that doubles as a financial boon for Israel’s tech sector and broader economy.

In short, his back is against the wall. By October, he may be out of a job. And by January, after the 120th Congress is seated, the odds of the U.S. enacting laws that entrench Israel in our defense and intelligence systems may drop precipitously.

Netanyahu, as is typical for him, is projecting strength, to the point of hubris (which is also typical for him). His advantage to this point has rested on keeping the two negotiations (Iran and framework legislation) separate. In the Iran context he can exercise significant leverage as a spoiler, and in the legislative context he can exercise significant leverage through Republican congressional endorsement of a plan for which he has publicly taken credit. For as long as these lanes stay apart, he would seem to have the advantage.

But as a businessman, Trump knows the value of writing his own script and re-framing the situation in a way that benefits his—and America’s—interests. In this context, the way to do that is by combining all three tracks in the U.S.-Israel relationship—Iran, Palestinian self-determination, and the future of security cooperation—into one.

There are signs he may already have recognized this. Although the White House pushed back on recent reporting from NBC and the New York Times regarding Israeli espionage against the United States, those stories may have been a shot across the bow following an incredibly contentious call between the two leaders. Or in other words: “Play nice on Iran, or the intelligence cooperation under consideration by Congress gets pulled.”

There’s no reason for the White House not to lean into this further. Netanyahu has not shown himself to be a helpful partner for the U.S.—indeed, from Gaza to Iran he has undermined U.S. regional and global influence and interests. There’s no reason to think a future Israeli government under his leadership would be any more compliant, particularly once laws are passed by the U.S. guaranteeing Israel lasting influence over U.S. national security equities. In short, while Israel may be able to punch above its weight when it comes to shaping U.S. diplomacy (and warfare) on Iran, in the bigger picture Netanyahu needs Trump far more than Trump needs Netanyahu.

The administration should leverage this opportunity by linking all three tracks together. Specifically, it should signal to Israel that continued progress on the pending U.S. legislation is premised on Israeli compliance with U.S. efforts to wind down the regional conflict and with U.S. efforts to drive forward a real diplomatic pathway for Palestinian self-determination. To demonstrate he holds the upper hand, Trump should also work with Republican leadership in Congress to slow-roll the current legislative vehicles so that Netanyahu cannot present them as a “sure thing” prior to Israel’s elections.

Such an approach would not only incentivize Netanyahu to work more constructively with the administration, but could also inform the policies and campaign strategies of Israel’s opposition leaders, resulting in a more compliant Israelis after the fall elections.

U.S. presidents have always had the upper hand, in theory, when it comes to dealing with Israel. They can suspend arms transfers or soften their diplomatic support for Israel, opening it up to both sanctions risk and legal peril through the ongoing proceedings at the International Court of Justice and International Criminal Court. Trump would be right to consider integrating these pressure points into his strategy as well, though he’s unlikely to take that path. But there’s a unique opportunity now between Netanyahu’s domestic political position as Israel enters election season, and Israel’s potential moment of crisis when it comes to transitioning U.S. security assistance into some form of enduring influence.

This is a winning hand for President Trump, should he choose to play it. There is no need to give away the game, as Congress now seems poised to do, just as the cards have been dealt. Trump can use Israel’s desperation for defense and intelligence integration as leverage to constrain Netanyahu on Iran. After Israel’s elections and the U.S. midterms, he will still have time to assess if the current legislative work to integrate Israel needs to proceed, or if further concessions are needed from Netanyahu or a new Israeli government, before signaling his assent to Congress.

Original article:  www.theamericanconservative.com

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Gouveia conquista Taça Nacional de Walking Football Competitivo e sagra-se Campeã Nacional

A equipa de Walking Football do Município de Gouveia conquistou, esta sexta-feira, a Taça Nacional de Walking Football Competitivo, disputada na Cidade do Futebol, alcançando o título de Campeã Nacional da modalidade. Depois de garantir o apuramento para a fase final da competição, a formação gouveense superou com sucesso os encontros frente ao SC Arões, [...]

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Lagarinhos em Gouveia, recebeu saída de campo dedicada à biodiversidade das Paisagens Vínicas do Dão

Lagarinhos acolheu, na manhã desta sexta-feira, 13 de junho, uma saída de campo dedicada à biodiversidade das Paisagens Vínicas do Dão, numa iniciativa promovida pelo Município de Gouveia, em parceria com o CERVAS – Centro de Ecologia, Recuperação e Vigilância de Animais Selvagens e a União de Freguesias de Rio Torto e Lagarinhos. A atividade [...]

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Lagarinhos em Gouveia, recebeu saída de campo dedicada à biodiversidade das Paisagens Vínicas do Dão

Lagarinhos acolheu, na manhã desta sexta-feira, 13 de junho, uma saída de campo dedicada à biodiversidade das Paisagens Vínicas do Dão, numa iniciativa promovida pelo Município de Gouveia, em parceria com o CERVAS – Centro de Ecologia, Recuperação e Vigilância de Animais Selvagens e a União de Freguesias de Rio Torto e Lagarinhos. A atividade [...]

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Debut ante Marruecos genera expectativas y cautela en Brasil

Brasilia, 13 jun (Prensa Latina) El debut de Brasil hoy ante Marruecos en la Copa del Mundo de fútbol es esperado en el gigante sudamericano con una mezcla de expectativa histórica, presión competitiva y cautela ante un rival en ascenso.

The post Debut ante Marruecos genera expectativas y cautela en Brasil first appeared on Noticias Prensa Latina.

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DHS docs: Govt bracing for nationwide anti-AI riots, preparing to crack down on dissent

By Alan MACLEOD

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Contact us: info@strategic-culture.su

New documents from government agencies such as the FBI and Department of Homeland Security show that Washington is preparing for widespread anti-A.I. riots, as the technology destroys communities and industries across the country. Ironically, the Trump administration is already using invasive A.I. technology to identify and suppress what it calls anti-A.I. “extremists,” in the process, sweeping the entire nation into its massive surveillance dragnet.

More than 1,000 pages of leaked documents reviewed by WIRED Magazine show that government agencies are anticipating a huge wave of domestic unrest in the coming years, as artificial intelligence upends American society. Automation-related job losses could shatter entire industries, while the building of gigantic data centers will remove water and electricity from public use, ramping up the price of what little remains.

As one report from the New York Intelligence and Counterterrorism Bureau notes:

“The chaotic atmosphere that may result from emergent A.I. technology in the next five years may fuel large-scale protests that devolve into civil unrest and anti-tech violent extremist activity, especially in large urban areas such as New York City.”

An Environmental and Health Catastrophe

Last year, the tech industry collectively spent around half a trillion dollars on the construction of new data centers. These buildings consume near insatiable amounts of energy and water. By 2030, they are expected to represent around 12% of total U.S. electricity consumption. One large data center consumes up to five million gallons of water per day – as much as a small city. It has been calculated that a single 100-word A.I. prompt to a chatbot like Claude or ChatGPT uses over half a liter of water, equivalent to one bottle.

When a data center moves into town, utility prices skyrocket. In this situation, wholesale electricity, for example, jumps by up to 267%. Ordinary Americans cannot compete with the likes of Amazon or Microsoft, and can be priced out of even the most basic necessities of life, causing widespread resentment.

Living near a data center can also be hazardous to human health. Thanks to the low-frequency noises they produce, residents often report chronic symptoms such as insomnia, vertigo, and nausea. Worse still, to meet their enormous energy demands, data centers often rely on gas or diesel generators, which emit high levels of nitrogen oxides, fine particular matter, and so-called “forever chemicals” into the air, further complicating the situation.

A.I. will also have a profound effect on employment. Goldman Sachs predicts that, over the next decade, 300 million jobs could be lost to A.I.-based automation. Sam Altman, CEO of ChatGPT’s parent company, OpenAI, has suggested that whole industries may be replaced by his product. “Entire classes of jobs will go away and not come back,” he confidently stated in 2019. Facing growing public anger, last month, he walked those statements back, assuring the public that there would be no “jobs apocalypse.”

But if these predictions are anything close to correct, it will cause massive economic disruption across America, and send towns and entire cities dependent on certain types of work into potentially permanent depressions. The latest news that Washington is preparing to treat this unrest as akin to terrorism should be of great concern to all Americans.

The Dark Side of A.I.

The public, as a whole, is highly skeptical of artificial intelligence. A recent poll found that only 5% trust A.I. a great deal, while 77% think it could pose a fundamental threat to humanity.

The U.S. national security state, however, has fully committed to A.I., and is using it to mass surveil the public and to identify those not sufficiently supportive of the new technology. In March, FBI director Kash Patel confirmed that the bureau is buying Americans’ personal online user data from brokers in order to track the public. The Department of Homeland Security has spent millions purchasing A.I. software that detects the sentiment and emotions of Americans’ online posts, and is using it to identify activists and other potential “threats.” It has also sent subpoenas to Google, Facebook, Instagram, Reddit, Discord, and other large social media apps demanding they share the personal information and identities of anonymous users who have criticized the actions of the Trump administration. Government officials confirmed to The New York Times that platforms have often complied with their requests.

A.I. giant Anthropic publicly pulled out of a deal with the U.S. Department of War to develop A.I. systems in “classified environments,” stating that they feared the technology would immediately be used to carry out mass domestic surveillance in the United States. “We cannot in good conscience accede to their request,” they said, explaining their decision. The company was immediately labeled a national security “supply chain risk” by the Trump administration, and the contract was fulfilled by OpenAI.

OpenAI co-founder Greg Brockman is one of Trump’s most generous donors, having channeled $25 million to the president’s super PAC, MAGA Inc. He has also poured $50 million into Leading the Future, a bipartisan super PAC aimed at promoting pro-A.I. legislation in Washington, D.C., and defeating and silencing lawmakers who wish to curb the influence and power of the new industry.

It remains to be seen to what extent A.I. will actually become a revolutionary technology, but what is clear is that the U.S. government is preparing for major economic and social disruption in its wake. Instead of creating economic bailout plans and social welfare programs to help those negatively affected, however, it is preparing an authoritarian response, looking to crush dissent. What makes this future even more ironically dystopian is that, to do so, it is using the very A.I. that is triggering the problem in the first place.

Original article:  www.mintpressnews.com

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Titulação de terra quilombola no Marajó é inédita, celebram lideranças

Logo Agência Brasil

Quando ouviu nomes de territórios que seriam titulados pelo presidente Lula, na quinta-feira (11), a coordenadora estadual das associações das comunidades remanescentes de quilombo do Pará, Carlene Printes, comemorou.

Ela correu até o palco, abraçou Lula e celebrou durante o encontro nacional de mulheres quilombolas, no Distrito Federal. A reunião de mais de 600 mulheres vai até este domingo (14).

Notícias relacionadas:

“A gente foi surpreendido positivamente com três decretos de territórios que a gente vem há muitos anos esperando e conseguimos alcançar aqui neste feito histórico”, disse Carlene em entrevista à Agência Brasil.

“A gente nunca teve um título no Marajó. Somos ameaçados por arrozeiros, fazendeiros e mineradoras. A titulação é o que minimamente nos dá segurança”, destacou.

Proteção

Para Carlene, a titulação é um fôlego de esperança para o povo. “Isso impacta diretamente na proteção dos nossos povos”, pois permite acesso a políticas públicas e aumenta a segurança das famílias.

O representante da comunidade de Santa Luzia, no Marajó, Hilário Moraes, presente ao evento, estava também eufórico.

“Esse decreto hoje, que o presidente Lula nos entrega, é uma resposta e um ato de reparação. Até agora estou sem acreditar”.

Ele testemunha que a comunidade sofre ameaças de todos os tipos. “De todos os eiros, sojeiros, arrozeiros, grileiros, madeireiros,” desabafou.

O quilombo tem 19 famílias com território de 526 hectares. “É uma comunidade que vive da agricultura familiar que tem essa alta disponibilidade da floresta e que a trata muito. Somos nós que mais protegemos o bioma da Amazônia”, contou.

A liderança diz que apenas o reconhecimento, sem a demarcação de terra, ainda não garantia as políticas públicas necessárias.

 “A gente esperava esse título como se espera um diamante que está se lapidando. É o caminho para que mais títulos, tanto na Ilha do Marajó, como em todo o estado e também na Amazônia possam chegar”.

Pelo Brasil

Outra beneficiada pela titulação foi a comunidade de Invernada dos Negros, em Campos novos, em Santa Catarina. A liderança Adriana Ferreira da Silva, que recebeu o título de terra homenageou mulheres que foram vítimas, como Mãe Bernadete.

“Estamos felizes pelas políticas públicas que chegaram até nós. Não somos mulheres apenas para estar dentro de casa. Somos para estar no mundo. O mundo é nosso”, comemorou.

Os territórios quilombolas são espaços rurais ou urbanos ocupados por comunidades negras, formadas por descendentes de pessoas escravizadas durante a colonização do Brasil. As áreas entregues finalizam um longo processo de regularização, abrangendo 11,6 mil hectares e beneficiando 1.780 famílias.

Incra

Durante o evento, o Incra anunciou a publicação de uma portaria de reconhecimento do território Porto Leocádio, em Goiás, beneficiando 20 famílias em uma área de 1,5 mil hectares.

Também foram anunciados cinco novos Relatórios Técnicos de Identificação e Delimitação (RTIDs) para os territórios Brejão dos Aipins (PI), Baía Formosa (RJ), Sapatu (SP), Sítio Grossos (RN) e Engenho da Cruz (BA), contemplando cerca de 800 famílias e aproximadamente 22 mil hectares.

O RTID é um relatório histórico e antropológico da ocupação e define os marcos territoriais da área tradicionalmente ocupada por famílias quilombolas.

>> Confira a distribuição dos 18 títulos quilombolas concedidos, divididos por território:

  • Kalunga do Mimoso (Arraias e Paranã/TO): quatro títulos, beneficiando 250 famílias em 4.211 hectares;
  • Kalunga (Cavalcante, Monte Alegre e Teresina de Goiás/GO): dois títulos para 888 famílias, abrangendo 6.221 hectares;
  • Invernada dos Negros (Abdon Batista e Campos Novos/SC): cinco títulos para 84 famílias em 111 hectares;
  • Charco/Juçaral (São Vicente Férrer/MA): três títulos para 137 famílias em 690 hectares;
  • Mel da Pedreira (Macapá/AP): um título para 14 famílias em 127 hectares;
  • Nova Batalhinha (Bom Jesus da Lapa/BA): um título para 20 famílias em 67 hectares;
  • Mata de São Benedito (Itapecuru-Mirim/MA): um título para 35 famílias em 194 hectares;
  • Piqui/Santa Maria dos Pretos (Itapecuru-Mirim/MA): um título para 352 famílias em 51 hectares.
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Titulação de terra quilombola no Marajó é inédita, celebram lideranças

Logo Agência Brasil

Quando ouviu nomes de territórios que seriam titulados pelo presidente Lula, na quinta-feira (11), a coordenadora estadual das associações das comunidades remanescentes de quilombo do Pará, Carlene Printes, comemorou.

Ela correu até o palco, abraçou Lula e celebrou durante o encontro nacional de mulheres quilombolas, no Distrito Federal. A reunião de mais de 600 mulheres vai até este domingo (14).

Notícias relacionadas:

“A gente foi surpreendido positivamente com três decretos de territórios que a gente vem há muitos anos esperando e conseguimos alcançar aqui neste feito histórico”, disse Carlene em entrevista à Agência Brasil.

“A gente nunca teve um título no Marajó. Somos ameaçados por arrozeiros, fazendeiros e mineradoras. A titulação é o que minimamente nos dá segurança”, destacou.

Proteção

Para Carlene, a titulação é um fôlego de esperança para o povo. “Isso impacta diretamente na proteção dos nossos povos”, pois permite acesso a políticas públicas e aumenta a segurança das famílias.

O representante da comunidade de Santa Luzia, no Marajó, Hilário Moraes, presente ao evento, estava também eufórico.

“Esse decreto hoje, que o presidente Lula nos entrega, é uma resposta e um ato de reparação. Até agora estou sem acreditar”.

Ele testemunha que a comunidade sofre ameaças de todos os tipos. “De todos os eiros, sojeiros, arrozeiros, grileiros, madeireiros,” desabafou.

O quilombo tem 19 famílias com território de 526 hectares. “É uma comunidade que vive da agricultura familiar que tem essa alta disponibilidade da floresta e que a trata muito. Somos nós que mais protegemos o bioma da Amazônia”, contou.

A liderança diz que apenas o reconhecimento, sem a demarcação de terra, ainda não garantia as políticas públicas necessárias.

 “A gente esperava esse título como se espera um diamante que está se lapidando. É o caminho para que mais títulos, tanto na Ilha do Marajó, como em todo o estado e também na Amazônia possam chegar”.

Pelo Brasil

Outra beneficiada pela titulação foi a comunidade de Invernada dos Negros, em Campos novos, em Santa Catarina. A liderança Adriana Ferreira da Silva, que recebeu o título de terra homenageou mulheres que foram vítimas, como Mãe Bernadete.

“Estamos felizes pelas políticas públicas que chegaram até nós. Não somos mulheres apenas para estar dentro de casa. Somos para estar no mundo. O mundo é nosso”, comemorou.

Os territórios quilombolas são espaços rurais ou urbanos ocupados por comunidades negras, formadas por descendentes de pessoas escravizadas durante a colonização do Brasil. As áreas entregues finalizam um longo processo de regularização, abrangendo 11,6 mil hectares e beneficiando 1.780 famílias.

Incra

Durante o evento, o Incra anunciou a publicação de uma portaria de reconhecimento do território Porto Leocádio, em Goiás, beneficiando 20 famílias em uma área de 1,5 mil hectares.

Também foram anunciados cinco novos Relatórios Técnicos de Identificação e Delimitação (RTIDs) para os territórios Brejão dos Aipins (PI), Baía Formosa (RJ), Sapatu (SP), Sítio Grossos (RN) e Engenho da Cruz (BA), contemplando cerca de 800 famílias e aproximadamente 22 mil hectares.

O RTID é um relatório histórico e antropológico da ocupação e define os marcos territoriais da área tradicionalmente ocupada por famílias quilombolas.

>> Confira a distribuição dos 18 títulos quilombolas concedidos, divididos por território:

  • Kalunga do Mimoso (Arraias e Paranã/TO): quatro títulos, beneficiando 250 famílias em 4.211 hectares;
  • Kalunga (Cavalcante, Monte Alegre e Teresina de Goiás/GO): dois títulos para 888 famílias, abrangendo 6.221 hectares;
  • Invernada dos Negros (Abdon Batista e Campos Novos/SC): cinco títulos para 84 famílias em 111 hectares;
  • Charco/Juçaral (São Vicente Férrer/MA): três títulos para 137 famílias em 690 hectares;
  • Mel da Pedreira (Macapá/AP): um título para 14 famílias em 127 hectares;
  • Nova Batalhinha (Bom Jesus da Lapa/BA): um título para 20 famílias em 67 hectares;
  • Mata de São Benedito (Itapecuru-Mirim/MA): um título para 35 famílias em 194 hectares;
  • Piqui/Santa Maria dos Pretos (Itapecuru-Mirim/MA): um título para 352 famílias em 51 hectares.
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Brazil between the slave trafficking and drug trafficking

Brazil’s elites have long treated drug violence as inevitable – like 19th-century slavery. But with banks and gas stations now feeling the pinch, will national pride finally force action where moral outrage never could?

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Contact us: info@strategic-culture.su

In Um rio chamado Atlântico [A River Called Atlantic], the Brazilian diplomat and Africanist Alberto da Costa e Silva (1931 – 1923) addresses the history of the end of the slave trafficking in Brazil in a very interesting way. As is known, England in the 19th century positioned herself as the moral bulwark of the world, and this included a true crusade against the transatlantic slave trade. On the other hand, Brazil, according to our Africanist, was dependent on the forced immigration of Africans to populate this vast territory, given the small size of Portugal and the precarious technical condition of the Amerindians.

That English humanitarianism was merely a pretext, no one serious can doubt. After all, one only needs to see how inhumane the British chartered company’s dominion over India was, or consider the fact that English sympathies leaned towards the South during the American Civil War. From an economic standpoint, there is the issue of the competitiveness of Brazilian sugar produced by slave labor, but the most important thing, according to Costa e Silva, was this: the financial suffocation of the free African kingdoms.

Since the African kingdoms capitalized in the 19th century by selling slaves to the Americas, closing the Atlantic would cause these kingdoms to collapse, and thus, English merchants could try to replicate there the model of domination implemented in India. And, in fact, after the closing of the Atlantic, some African leaders began to imitate the Anglo-American plantation model to sell palm oil to the English, who used it for purposes as diverse as soap making and public lighting. The slave trade to the Americas ended and was replaced by African domestic slavery.

According to Alberto da Costa e Silva, the slave trafficking ended in Brazil because Brazil wanted it to. Even today, in the 21st century, we use in Brazil the expression “so that the English can see it”. The origin of this expression is the Feijó Law of 1831, a law of the Empire of Brazil that prohibited the transatlantic slave trade, imitating the English law of 1807. Brazil had been pressured by England to pass such a law since its Independence (1822). However, since the Brazilian authorities did not want to end this slave trade, the law was simply not applied: it was made so that the English can see it. To this day, Brazilians say that such a thing is “so that the English can see it” when they want to say that it is an empty formality. The slave trafficking in Brazil ended when Brazil wanted it to end. This occurred in 1850, when Brazil approved the Eusébio de Queiroz Law. From this, Alberto da Costa e Silva concludes: the trade ended because Brazil wanted it to end, and not because England wanted it to.

I have doubts. What would have happened if England had not pressured Brazil to end the slave trade? It’s impossible to answer historical counterfactual questions with certainty, but it seems to me that English arrogance, pointing the finger at us, may very well have driven our ancestors to action. After all, Brazilian society is both proud and conformist: we can spend decades complaining about the same problems as if for sport, but if a foreigner points the finger at us, then we become truly outraged.

Slavery was never a beautiful thing in Brazil. In Black Rednecks and White Liberals, Thomas Sowell contrasted the reaction of the Ottoman and Brazilian peoples to the end of slavery: there, with revolt and protest; here, with public celebrations. In the 19th century, there were even those who imported scientific racism from Protestant countries to justify slavery – but, as Costa e Silva showed, both the pro- and anti-slavery sides had arguments for and against Negroes. Just as there were those who defended the end of slavery because they believed that Negroes did not deserve such a fate, there were those who wanted to end slavery hoping to purge Brazil of Negroes (in the same way that Anglophones created Sierra Leone and Liberia to “return” them to Africa). On the other hand, there were those who justified slavery based on white superiority, but also those who thought that the influence of Negroes in Brazil was too beneficial for slavery, however bad, to have an immediate end.

Given that most of Brazil was illiterate and had no reason to adhere to the racist fashions of the educated, and given that the Brazilian population actually celebrated Abolition (1888) en masse after a large public campaign against the interests of a slave-owning minority, we can assume that the latter position – simultaneously anti-racist and resigned to slavery – reflected Brazilian common sense. I believe that, without external pressure to offend our pride, we could still be lamenting the wickedness of slavery while saying that it was necessary. Furthermore, just 5 years before the Eusébio de Queiroz Law, England passed the Aberdeen Act, which authorized their navy to seize Brazilian ships suspected of slave trafficking. It was an offense, and it was also a cause of losses, since it made the cost of imported slaves unsustainable.

It seems unlikely, then, that just five years later, and with the increased cost of imported slaves, Brazil would have decided on its own to end the trade. It does not follow, however, that England is a saint and that the Aberdeen Act did not harm Brazil in a dishonest way. As Alberto da Costa e Silva reports, Brazil had already developed legitimate trade with the free African kingdoms (which sold us palm oil and fabrics), but England ended up closing the Atlantic.

I think this situation is similar to that of present-day Brazil with drug trafficking and Donald Trump pointing the finger at us. Almost every Brazilian agrees that urban violence caused by drug trafficking is a major problem, and that the territorial control exercised by factions is a very wrong thing. (I say almost every, because there is always the delusional leftist.) However, the elites treat the problem as if it were a phenomenon as natural as rain: Brazilians complain and have no prospect of solving the problem. In Brazil, Marxism ended up translating into a kind of scientific conformism, in which the sociologist looks at the ills and explains why everything is the way it is – in the same way that an English social Darwinist proceeded in the face of the ills of the poor.

Like 19th-century England, Donald Trump is far from being a saint. He has already shown that he feels entitled to invade countries under the pretext of fighting drug trafficking, and the U.S. experience in Colombia, Ecuador, and Afghanistan gives no rational reason for Brazilians to root for armed intervention thinking that this will put an end to drug trafficking. The United States also does not seem committed to ending drug trafficking on its own soil, since it has a colossal surveillance capacity and continues to be the largest consumer of cocaine on the planet. (It is true that U.S. population is large, but it doesn’t compare to China’s. It’s noteworthy that two English-speaking countries – Australia and New Zealand – are the largest per capita consumers according to the UN.)

Just like the Aberdeen Act, the classification by the United States of the two largest Brazilian transnational drug trafficking organizations – the PCC of São Paulo and the Red Commando of Rio de Janeiro – as terrorist organizations certainly stirs the pride of Brazilians. Only a delusional middle-class leftist will claim that this classification is inappropriate. Even so, Brazil has an idiotic anti-terrorism law, made with the purpose of considering terrorism only actions motivated by politically incorrect ideas (see here). By this law, it is impossible to consider PCC and Red Commando terrorist organizations – even though PCC already caused panic in the state of São Paulo in 2006, and there are no nice explanations for the attacks having ceased. Just as Brazil did not end the slave trade in 1830 because it did not want to, Brazil does not end the drug traffickers’ empire today because it does not want to.

Brazil has never considered the PCC a terrorist organization, but the new classification has already prompted Lula to publish an “Administration Note” on his official Twitter profile alluding to the PCC and Red Commando as entities that “practice terrorism in the territories where millions of families live.” I have no record of a note from a PT (Workers’ Party) federal administration alluding to drug traffickers in these terms. The government is then in a complicated position to say that the PCC and Red Commando are organizations that practice terrorism that intimidates millions of families but are not terrorist organizations. And even more: that Brazil is a sovereign country in which non-terrorist organizations practice terrorism against millions of families, because this sovereign country does not have sovereignty over large portions of its own territory! After all, the government’s rhetoric is that Trump’s attack against these organizations is an attack on Brazilian sovereignty orchestrated by Bolsonaristas who betrayed the homeland, since the announcement of the measure occurred shortly after Flávio Bolsonaro’s visit to the White House.

But there is a great dissimilarity between the slave trafficking and the drug trafficking empire: slavery in general is a millennial institution, and the transatlantic trade in particular was as old as Brazil itself. It was reasonable for Brazilians to think that slavery was inevitable, because its end contradicted all previous experience. The drug trafficking empire, on the other hand, is only about 20 years old for most of Brazil. I am only 36 years old and I remember a time when there were no crack addicts: a completely different reality, which seems like a utopia to today’s teenagers. Furthermore, slavery in 19th-century urban Brazil allowed for social ascension, and slaves could realistically dream of freedom and enrichment. The drug trafficking empire, however, haunts Brazilians as long as they are in a Brazilian large city: even if they become rich and leave the slums, they could lose their lives at any moment to a stray bullet, or to a crack addict who stabs them in the street for no reason.

Therefore, the role of the mystifying sociologist is important among us. The rhetoric of Open Society and Ford Foundation – the racist rhetoric that insists on blackness as essentially linked to crime and drug addiction – presents the drug trafficking empire as natural and inevitable. One good thing about Trump’s classification is that now the sectors of the Brazilian economy that were bothered are starting to show their faces: banks, fintechs, and gas stations.

Hopefully, these sectors will now feel ashamed, and Brazil will finally decide to end the drug trafficking empire in its national territory.

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Brasil estreia hoje na Copa do Mundo em jogo contra o Marrocos

Logo Agência Brasil

Quatro jogos estão agendados para este sábado (13) pela Copa do Mundo de 2026.

O destaque é o confronto entre Brasil e Marrocos, às 19h em Nova Jersey, pela primeira rodada do Grupo C.

Notícias relacionadas:

Completando a mesma chave, Haiti e Escócia se enfrentarão às 22h, em Boston.

Mais cedo, às 16h, Catar e Suíça fecham a primeira rodada do Grupo B, iniciada com a partida entre Canadá e Bósnia e Herzegovina, que empataram em 1 a 1 nesta sexta-feira (12). 

A última partida será entre Austrália e Turquia, na madrugada de domingo (14), à 1h. A partida é válida pelo Grupo D, que tem também Estados Unidos e Paraguai, equipes que também já se enfrentaram ontem.

Brasil x Marrocos

A seleção brasileira entra em campo sendo comandada pela primeira vez em uma Copa do Mundo por um técnico estrangeiro: o italiano Carlo Ancelotti.

Caso se confirmem as expectativas de escalar, para as laterais, Danilo e Alex Sandro, o Brasil tenderá a adotar um estilo de jogo que lembra o da escola italiana, com estes jogadores priorizando o papel defensivo.

Dessa forma, Ancelotti terá condições de dar liberdade ao meio de campo para fazer ligações rápidas, explorando a velocidade dos atacantes Raphinha e Vinícius Júnior.

Marrocos tem uma equipe bastante organizada e de grande disciplina tática. A equipe consagrou-se campeã da Copa Africana de Nações em 2025: o mais importante título do continente. No mesmo ano foi campeão mundial pela equipe sub-20.

Foi também semifinalista na Copa de 2022, torneio em que terminou ocupando o 4º lugar – algo inédito para uma seleção africana; e medalha de bronze nas Olimpíadas de Paris 2024.

  •  

Brasil estreia hoje na Copa do Mundo em jogo contra o Marrocos

Logo Agência Brasil

Quatro jogos estão agendados para este sábado (13) pela Copa do Mundo de 2026.

O destaque é o confronto entre Brasil e Marrocos, às 19h em Nova Jersey, pela primeira rodada do Grupo C.

Notícias relacionadas:

Completando a mesma chave, Haiti e Escócia se enfrentarão às 22h, em Boston.

Mais cedo, às 16h, Catar e Suíça fecham a primeira rodada do Grupo B, iniciada com a partida entre Canadá e Bósnia e Herzegovina, que empataram em 1 a 1 nesta sexta-feira (12). 

A última partida será entre Austrália e Turquia, na madrugada de domingo (14), à 1h. A partida é válida pelo Grupo D, que tem também Estados Unidos e Paraguai, equipes que também já se enfrentaram ontem.

Brasil x Marrocos

A seleção brasileira entra em campo sendo comandada pela primeira vez em uma Copa do Mundo por um técnico estrangeiro: o italiano Carlo Ancelotti.

Caso se confirmem as expectativas de escalar, para as laterais, Danilo e Alex Sandro, o Brasil tenderá a adotar um estilo de jogo que lembra o da escola italiana, com estes jogadores priorizando o papel defensivo.

Dessa forma, Ancelotti terá condições de dar liberdade ao meio de campo para fazer ligações rápidas, explorando a velocidade dos atacantes Raphinha e Vinícius Júnior.

Marrocos tem uma equipe bastante organizada e de grande disciplina tática. A equipe consagrou-se campeã da Copa Africana de Nações em 2025: o mais importante título do continente. No mesmo ano foi campeão mundial pela equipe sub-20.

Foi também semifinalista na Copa de 2022, torneio em que terminou ocupando o 4º lugar – algo inédito para uma seleção africana; e medalha de bronze nas Olimpíadas de Paris 2024.

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BCP recompra mais de 8,7 milhões de ações por 8,1 milhões no arranque do novo programa de share buyback

O Banco Comercial Português informou o mercado de que adquiriu um total de 8.765.844 ações próprias entre os dias 4 e 12 de junho de 2026. A operação, realizada em mercado regulamentado na Euronext Lisbon, envolveu um investimento global de 8.183.752 euros (8,2 milhões). Esta intervenção decorre no âmbito do Programa de Recompra de Ações Próprias do banco, cujos termos foram inicialmente comunicados em maio deste ano, tendo a execução das ordens ficado a cargo do intermediário financeiro J.P. Morgan SE.

Com este lote de transações, o Millennium BCP passou a deter uma participação direta equivalente a 0,06% do seu capital social.

Ao longo do período reportado, o ritmo diário de aquisições registou algumas variações. As compras arrancaram a 4 de junho com a aquisição  de 858.749 ações a um preço médio ponderado de 0,9246 euros. Nos dias seguintes, a 5 e 8 de junho, o banco garantiu, respetivamente, 785.270 e 851.468 títulos, ambos fixados ao preço médio de 0,9277 euros.

A 9 de junho assistiu-se a uma aceleração com a compra de 1.235.514 ações a 0,9361 euros, ritmo que estabilizou a 10 e 11 de junho, datas em que foram adquiridas 853.884 ações a 0,9150 euros e 999.498 ações a 0,9176 euros. O volume diário mais expressivo acabou por ser alcançado na sexta-feira, dia 12 de junho, com a recolha de 3.181.461 ações a um preço médio ponderado de 0,9481 euros.

A instituição financeira liderada por Miguel Maya anunciou no fim de maio que tinha aprovado um programa de recompra de ações próprias que ascende ao montante global de 407.458.786,00 euros (407,5 milhões de euros).

O valor financeiro definido para esta operação equivale a cerca de 2,84% da capitalização bolsista da instituição financeira. O principal objetivo estratégico da medida consiste na posterior extinção dos títulos adquiridos.

O  programa de recompra de ações próprias de mais de 400 milhões de euros foi desenhado para começar a 4 de junho e terminar seis meses depois, em 4 de dezembro.

Em comunicado, publicado no site da Comissão do Mercado de Valores Mobiliários (CMVM) a 27 de maio, o BCP explicou que poderá recomprar até 1.184 milhões de ações ordinárias, correspondentes a um máximo de 8% da totalidade de ações representativas do capital social do banco. Já o valor máximo do programa de recompra poderá atingir, no máximo, 407.458.786 euros.

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Targeting Orthodoxy hits a new low

Czech police found cocaine in a Russian Orthodox bishop’s car – right after a seminarian accused him of sexual assault. Coincidence or Kremlin takedown? With no court ruling and helmet cams off, the West’s propaganda machine gets another scalp.

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Russian Orthodox metropolitan Hilarion (his last posting was in the Czech Republic) was involuntarily in the news again after Czech authorities claimed that after conducting a search they found cocaine hidden in the trunk of his automobile. The quantity alleged to have been seized by the Czech police in the good metropolitan’s vehicle was negligible, but still enough for criminal proceedings to be initiated and – perhaps more importantly – to generate massive embarrassment not just for him personally but also for the church which he represents.

Amazingly, or perhaps not, the church in question is not Southern Baptist or Presbyterian but Eastern Orthodox, in this particular case the Moscow Patriarchate in which metropolitan Hilarion happens to be a prelate.

For context, the alleged cocaine seizure comes relatively shortly after the first round of embarrassment, also involving metropolitan Hilarion, and his cell attendant, Japanese-Russian seminary student Georgy Suzuki (presumably unrelated to the motorcycle manufacturer). Suzuki claimed that whilst posted in Budapest, Hungary, as head of the Russian Patriarchate diocese in that country, the metropolitan had made some indecent proposals to him which the latter, being a pious Christian, of course indignantly rejected and then went vociferously public with his traumatic experience.

The metropolitan Hilarion affair, if it were just an isolated and personal matter, would scarcely merit extensive discussion.  Based on what we know of human nature and its infirmities both allegations theoretically could be true, although on a cautionary note theoretical possibilities are considerably removed, in both moral and legal terms, from proven facts. The burden of proof of course, in both the moral and the penal sense, is invariably on the accuser. And it is always helpful to keep in mind that the graver the charge the stricter the degree of assurance of guilt that may be demanded in the form of convincing proof, and in some instances even to the extent of removing all reasonable doubt.

The principle “the more severe the crime the higher the standard of proof” is fundamental not just to criminal justice but in a broad sense to all moral reasoning concerning human behaviour. So without dismissing a priori Suzuki’s attempted molestation charges, how do they stack up?

It should be noted at the outset that Georgy Suzuki is the only source for the scandalous allegations at the expense of metropolitan Hilarion. That does not automatically disqualify them, but it does call for closer scrutiny of their credibility. Roman law has bequeathed us a fundamental precept that is pertinent in situations such as this one: unus testis, nullus testis, or one witness, no witness. When there is just a single witness whose declarations are not corroborated by the testimony of other observers or physical evidence, that should put us on guard. It is reasonable in such cases to be sceptical and to demand independent proof before rendering judgment.

Hilarion’s status as a high ranking ecclesiastical dignitary does not make his denials inherently more credible than simple seminarian Suzuki’s affirmations. But neither should the affirmations be given more weight merely because they have been made by someone who appears to be unblemished and even vulnerable. The accusations that have been made can gravely injure reputations, both personal and institutional. They must therefore be subjected to rigorous scrutiny and a sufficient amount of credible proof should be demanded before entertaining them seriously.

If Georgy Suzuki had simply aired his allegations and after that held his peace, arguably the case against the metropolitan would have appeared much stronger, although still falling short of the level of proof required for either moral condemnation or penal conviction. But instead Suzuki set off on a passionate media crusade against Hilarion, widening the affair’s scope beyond the original accusations. On his Telegram channel and other media platforms he is now excoriating the metropolitan for entirely unrelated faults, such as toleration of heresy and promotion of the Bologna-based system in educational establishments under church auspices which, he claims, has been academically detrimental to students and seminarians such as himself. These and other criticisms that he has raised might be justified but they are irrelevant to the central issue of molestation. In the absence of any corroborating evidence to support Suzuki’s original charges, far from solidifying the negative image of metropolitan Hilarion this ad hominem rampage seriously undermines accuser Suzuki’s own credibility.

The attentive observer can scarcely overlook the peculiar manner in which this scandal is framed. It follows to the letter the tried and tested pattern that over the past decades has been successfully used to discredit Christianity in the West. As in this case, the technique consists of a lone accuser making grave charges of moral turpitude against clerics that are not backed by other evidence than his word alone. Such accusations are nevertheless accorded deafening publicity by the media machine which incessantly repeats them without ever asking any critical questions.

The multitude of cases in the West that have plagued mostly the Roman Catholic communion have accomplished two important purposes. By pursuing the “deep pocket” strategy and extracting huge indemnities from the church as an institution, the pawns from whom these sordid allegations had originated or, more accurately, whoever is pulling their strings, have managed to bankrupt many Roman Catholic dioceses, thus engineering the financial ruin of the church in their respective countries. It is rumoured, without definitive proof, that the Russian Orthodox Church of the Moscow Patriarchate was also coerced into paying a ransom to extricate itself and settle the matter in Hungary which, like the Czech Republic, is still Collective West EU/NATO territory. But even more importantly, given the spiritual darkness into which the Western world has plunged, it is not money but the infliction of severe reputational damage on the Christian church that is the main and ultimate objective behind these scandals. Its dignitaries must therefore be portrayed as depraved perverts, which is exactly what the cabal that fabricates most of these accusations in fact are.

It was apparently judged where these operations are devised that metropolitan Hilarion and his Church were made sufficiently vulnerable by the wide dissemination of Suzuki’s original allegations for the next phase of the discreditation process to be undertaken. In the Czech Republic, which was the metropolitan’s next posting, the police laid ambush on him at a petrol station whilst he was buying fuel. The Czech police surrounded his vehicle and without a court order or any semblance of probable cause proceeded to search the automobile, their helmet cameras conveniently turned off so that no record of the search would exist. When they opened the back of the vehicle the officers claimed to have found a handbag containing cocaine. There is no way of telling whether it was really there or was slipped in by the officers themselves at their superiors’ orders. The alleged seizure was judged sufficient to detain the metropolitan.

The cocaine search and seizure incident was marked by so many procedural irregularities that any American judge worth his salt would simply drop his gavel and call “case dismissed,” with apologies to the defendant. Exactly how Czech authorities resolved the issue is still murky, but since in a proper courtroom everything about the case was  subject to challenge the Czech judiciary hastily improvised a formula to let the metropolitan go and he returned to Russia.

But as with the indecent propositioning allegation, without anything ever being settled in a public trial, where evidence would have to be produced and carefully weighed. Both matters were nevertheless “settled” not in a courtroom but in the arena of propaganda, where there are no rules or safeguards and masterfully generated impressions substitute for judiciously established facts.

Given the known frailties of human nature and dearth of reliable facts pointing one way or the other, no firm conclusions can be drawn but none can be excluded either. Of equal interest as the alleged incidents are the uses those incidents have been made to serve. In the current climate of international relations, where shaping public perceptions by means of propaganda is a major operational objective, there is no doubt that a high-ranking dignitary of the Russian Orthodox Church such as metropolitan Hilarion (formerly head of Moscow Patriarchy’s foreign relations department) is considered a high value target. His discomfiture therefore, and that of the Russian Orthodox Church with which he is associated, absolutely delights the targeters. Those who are doing the targeting are, of course, morally unperturbed by the faults that, rightly or falsely, have been imputed to Hilarion. Their poster boy Zelensky is known for personal depravity and, yes, cocaine consumption, but they do not object because he is their man. They themselves are deeply mired in the depths of depravity that are largely unfathomable to the normal human mind. But they are always ready and eager to smear others with their own perversions if that brings them an advantage.

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L’Iran scommette sulla guerra

Questa fase del conflitto iraniano probabilmente si concluderà solo quando l’Occidente precipiterà nel baratro economico che si profila all’orizzonte

Segue nostro Telegram.

La guerra degli Stati Uniti contro l’Iran è passata dalla fase iniziale a una nuova fase emergente — una fase in cui l’Iran scommette implicitamente sul fatto che la fase successiva sarà la guerra. Molto probabilmente si tratterà di episodi brevi di guerra limitata, che tuttavia potrebbero estendersi a livello regionale, qualora gli Stati Uniti (e Israele) decidessero di inasprire drasticamente la situazione.

La nuova fase comporta ovviamente dei rischi, ma l’Iran detiene le carte vincenti: la capacità di infliggere danni sproporzionatamente più gravi alle infrastrutture del Golfo come rappresaglia per qualsiasi danno subito, e la consapevolezza che l’Occidente si sta avvicinando sempre più al precipizio energetico.

I tre pilastri alla base di questo cambiamento sono, in primo luogo, la fiducia che l’Iran non sarà (e non potrà essere) allontanato dal suo controllo su Ormuz e che, consolidando le proprie strutture amministrative in quella zona, la realtà del controllo iraniano su Ormuz sarà sempre più assimilata dagli Stati e si rifletterà nella loro accettazione del controllo iraniano-omanita.

A questo principio fondamentale si associa l’attuazione da parte dell’Iran di una deterrenza intensificata nei confronti del blocco navale americano. Qualsiasi tentativo di intercettare o attaccare navi iraniane o di interferire con l’amministrazione dello Stretto sarà accolto con risposte sempre più dure. In definitiva, questa politica potrebbe portare l’Iran a infliggere danni sempre più gravi alle navi da guerra statunitensi – un altro punto di attrito.

Il 3 giugno, ad esempio, gli Stati Uniti hanno lanciato un missile Hellfire contro una petroliera iraniana nei pressi dello Stretto di Hormuz. In risposta, una nave di proprietà statunitense (o in parte di proprietà statunitense), la Panaya, è stata colpita da missili. Inoltre, l’Iran ha lanciato tre ondate di missili da crociera contro la base aerea e di elicotteri statunitense in Kuwait da cui era partito l’attacco. Sono emerse immagini che mostrano gravi danni anche all’aeroporto internazionale del Kuwait (sebbene la causa dei danni rimanga controversa).

Il secondo principio di fondo che influenza questo cambiamento riflette semplicemente il disprezzo iraniano per il continuo inasprimento delle richieste da parte di Trump, le minacce esagerate (che palesemente non sono all’altezza delle capacità statunitensi), insieme al suo continuo zigzagare e alla retorica sprezzante nei confronti dell’Iran.

La leadership iraniana ha concluso, a quanto pare, che probabilmente non si arriverà a un compromesso e che è meglio interrompere i “negoziati” piuttosto “che continuare i negoziati inutili e in malafede con un regime americano ingannevole e decrepito”, come il New York Times ha definito i “negoziati” con l’Iran — suggerendo che il “caos dell’accordo” non sia un singolo intoppo di Trump limitato alla questione iraniana, ma piuttosto un modello costante di disfunzionalità che si ripete praticamente in tutte le iniziative di “pace” di Trump.

Dietro la decisione dell’Iran di sospendere i colloqui, tuttavia, si cela probabilmente la chiarezza che sta gradualmente emergendo, filtrata dalle dichiarazioni e dalle analisi israeliane e americane, secondo cui il vero obiettivo dell’attacco a sorpresa statunitense-israeliano del 28 febbraio non è mai stato il cambio di regime di per sé — mirato a sostituire gli “integralisti” iraniani con un leader più moderato in stile “Delcy Rodrigues”; ma era piuttosto quello di provocare la completa distruzione e frammentazione dell’Iran — un’intuizione destinata a modificare i calcoli dell’Iran.

Questa intuizione ha consolidato enormemente il sostegno pubblico alla Repubblica Islamica e, allo stesso tempo, ha trasformato la guerra in una lotta esistenziale per preservare i valori etici della Rivoluzione. Da questo punto di vista, l’Iran ha ben poco da discutere con Trump, a parte un futuro modus vivendi — quando e se Washington comprenderà di essere con le spalle al muro e si affermerà un nuovo realismo.

Il terzo principio alla base di questa nuova fase del conflitto è quello enunciato dall’Iran sin dall’inizio dei colloqui di Islamabad: «Cessate il fuoco per tutti; oppure cessate il fuoco per nessuno». Ciò è stato nuovamente ribadito nell’ultimo ultimatum dell’Iran a Trump: «Se le minacce israeliane della scorsa settimana di radere al suolo il sobborgo meridionale di Beirut, Dahiyeh, fossero state messe in atto, l’Iran avrebbe colpito duramente il nord di Israele con i propri missili. “Era un cessate il fuoco per tutti – o nessun cessate il fuoco”.

Trump ha scelto il cessate il fuoco e, in seguito alla sua telefonata con Netanyahu, ha annunciato che era in vigore. Ha detto a Netanyahu di annullare il bombardamento pianificato su Dahiyeh, a sud di Beirut. In Israele, un’enorme ondata di rabbia proveniente da tutte le parti dello spettro politico ha attaccato Netanyahu per la sola idea di frenare qualsiasi attacco israeliano in Libano. L’ex primo ministro Naftali Bennett ha accusato Netanyahu di «aver perso il controllo sulla sovranità israeliana». E l’ex primo ministro Yair Lapid ha affermato che Israele era stato ridotto a uno “Stato vassallo” dopo la sospensione degli attacchi.

Da alcuni mesi gli Stati Uniti e Israele stanno tentando di convincere una parte dei leader libanesi ad accettare il compito di disarmare Hezbollah, come ha spiegato Rubio, “in modo che Israele non debba farlo” — cosa che i leader libanesi chiaramente non sono in grado di fare.

Israele non ha una strategia coerente per il Libano. L’ex alto ufficiale dell’intelligence militare israeliana, Danny Citrinowicz, delinea un nuovo “risultato iraniano”:

“Teheran è effettivamente riuscita a collegare il fronte libanese alla più ampia arena iraniano-israeliana. Qualsiasi escalation in Libano è ora vista sempre più attraverso il prisma delle dinamiche tra Stati Uniti e Iran”.

Ciononostante, egli osserva:

«La situazione in Libano rimane altamente instabile. Israele e Hezbollah continuano a interpretare gli attuali accordi in modi fondamentalmente diversi. [Mentre] Israele sostiene di mantenere la libertà di azione in tutto il Libano eccetto Beirut, Hezbollah [d’altra parte] insiste sul fatto che qualsiasi attività militare israeliana – in assoluto – violi il quadro del cessate il fuoco. Queste interpretazioni contrastanti creano un potenziale significativo di rinnovati attriti ed escalation sul campo».

In Israele, la situazione nelle città del nord rimane un punto nevralgico per quasi tutti gli israeliani. Molte città lungo il confine con il Libano e giù fino alla Galilea sono semivuote — «intere fasce di territorio abbandonate dal governo», scrive Ben Caspit. I politici locali sostengono di «essere anch’essi israeliani» e che il governo debba intervenire.

Il Libano rimarrà sicuramente un punto di contesa. Non è questione di se, ma di quando scoppierà la prossima crisi. Israele non lascerà le cose come stanno — persino i leader dell’opposizione liberale chiedono la distruzione di Hezbollah e protestano contro il fatto che Trump leghi le mani a Netanyahu in Libano.

Neanche l’Iran lascerà le cose come stanno. I mediatori hanno informato gli americani che l’Iran considera la fine della guerra in Libano, il ritiro delle forze israeliane e il ritiro da Hormuz come condizioni vincolanti — prima di discutere altre questioni.

Eccoci quindi a questo punto. Continuano le scaramucce militari – di fatto una serie abbreviata di attacchi da parte delle forze statunitensi contro la navigazione iraniana e le infrastrutture dello Stretto, scaturite dal desiderio di Trump di affermare il proprio blocco navale agli occhi dell’opinione pubblica statunitense. Questa situazione è chiaramente esplosiva – proprio come lo è il contesto libanese.

L’Iran sta di fatto riconoscendo la realtà che in questa nuova fase – con così tanti punti critici intrinseci – l’escalation militare americana a un certo punto diventerà probabilmente una necessità politica per le esigenze interne di Trump e dei suoi finanziatori ebrei.

E i negoziati? Non porteranno a nulla fintanto che Israele e i miliardari ebrei donatori statunitensi rifiuteranno qualsiasi esito con l’Iran che lasci il Paese intatto e più forte e – pari passu in questo pensiero binario – indebolisca di conseguenza il progetto «Israel First» all’interno degli Stati Uniti e della regione.

Un accordo che non veda l’Iran irrimediabilmente indebolito sarà condannato da queste ultime forze come una «negligenza traditrice» da parte di Trump. Egli sarà attaccato senza pietà. Eppure, deve rendersi conto che l’Iran è comunque sul punto di liberarsi dalle catene statunitensi.

Questa fase del conflitto iraniano probabilmente terminerà solo quando l’Occidente precipiterà dal precipizio economico che si avvicina…

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The madness of Trump’s Iran idea and who’s behind it

Trump’s Iran strikes: staged weakness or real madness? Behind him, Graham and Keene push oil theft and fantasy invasions.

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Many may be confused about America’s recent attacks on Iran, given that they come each day while Trump keeps telling us that a deal is about to be made. Just days ago, analysts believed that Trump was genuinely angry about Netanyahu going ahead with his IDF attacks in Lebanon against Hezbollah. But was that real, or staged? Given that Trump ordered strikes against Iran after that, a cynical view might be that there are only two scenarios why he would do something so incongruent. One: he believes that Iran is very close to signing a deal but needs the extra ’encouragement’ to finally get over the line. Or two: he felt embarrassed by what a whole phalanx of Western commentators were recently saying — that it was in fact Bibi who was running the whole show, using America’s resources to create chaos and havoc. The refusal by the Israeli PM to stop his troops fighting was a clear signal that Trump really doesn’t control the war and is very much a servile player to Israeli thinking.

But what is interesting is how Trump is not at all convinced that he has no military options, even given that they would certainly mean the total eradication of anything left of relations with GCC countries. Trump still believes even today that the US military — who have only a track record in the last 80 years of losing all wars and interventions they instigate — can actually take on Iran and win. As ludicrous as this sounds, it is what is at the heart of what is stalling any deal being struck, coupled with Trump’s sensational failure to negotiate — something he is simply incapable of doing despite his own hype and hubris. The US struck a number of water plants in Iran, which was an incredibly stupid initiative given that this is the region’s Achilles heel. If Iran wants to completely eliminate water desalination plants in, say, Qatar — a country which has no natural water at all — then it could easily do this in a matter of hours.

When a US Apache helicopter crashes, Trump’s reaction is a theatre of the absurd, similar to watching a child burst into tears on his first sports day where his new soccer shirt gets dirty on the pitch. The US is the aggressor, but when a helicopter is downed, this is met with misplaced outrage that borders on comedy. The reality is that no US military analysts believe the chopper was taken down by Iranian fire; it is more likely that it suffered a malfunction and crashed, with both pilots surviving. But it is interesting how Trump considers the war as more of a theatre of PR stunts rather than an important battle he can win.

One reason which explains this is the need for US troops to keep busy in the region, in a pathetic bid to remain relevant to GCC allies — a point made by the commentator Patrick Henningsen recently on RT television. Another reason, though, is the people that Trump keeps around him who he listens to, like Lindsey Graham — who one can only assume is being blackmailed by Israel over his sexual inclination, given his almost cultish beliefs in Zionism. But Graham knows nothing about war and seems to glean some sexual satisfaction from sending young American men in uniform to their deaths. On the other hand, General Jack Keene, a man who isn’t overburdened with intelligence, is probably responsible for a lot of the erroneous decisions Trump is making militarily, and certainly for stoking the “invasion option” while reminding the whole world what an irony-free zone America actually is.

Keene recently rambled on Fox News that he had no confidence in Iran ever keeping its word if Tehran were to ever sign a deal — a hilarious and preposterous claim given America’s reputation for never keeping its word on ceasefires and peace deals. The very fact that Trump is in talks with the Iranians every day demonstrates that they can be trusted, as it is the Trump camp which has no credibility whatsoever when it comes to integrity — the main reason why the Iranians are dragging their feet and are more comfortable with a drawn-out war that will recalibrate their position in the region and put down Israel and the US once and for all. For Keene to say such a thing is quite remarkable. But then he continues with his ideas about US troops “taking” Kharg Island, and a picture emerges of how and why Trump is so deluded about what the real capability of US troops is, and how his decisions and ideas are so detached from reality. Landing airborne troops on the island would only be possible if Iran allowed it to happen — so that it could disarm the occupiers and then hold them hostage as a key part of a new deal. That’s on a good day. On a bad day, if the more hardcore element of the IRGC has its way, they might simply decide to slaughter all of them. What Keene doesn’t seem to understand is the logistical nightmare of having 10,000 US soldiers on a single location within reach of just about everything Iran has to throw at it. And the talk of troops “landing” there with helicopters is a fantasy. How did General Keene become a general, given that he is stupid and seems to know little about warfare or Iran’s capability? The Iranians will shoot down US helicopters like they are having a fun day at clay pigeon shooting. But even if troops were allowed to land on Kharg and other islands, they have to be supplied practically every day. Presumably, the Iranians would prevent the supplies getting in and then starve the marines on the ground. If General Keene really has the ear of the president and Iran holds out for a better deal, the case for Trump to go to war becomes even stronger and grows each day.

But Keene let the cat out of the bag when he talked about oil. It’s really only about oil, or energy, as it was in Iraq, Afghanistan, Syria, and more recently Venezuela. For Trump to capture some oil production and then simply steal from it would be all in a day’s work for the president who has never had any problem with the stigmatisation of being called a thief. Trump believes oil theft is a real possibility and makes sense on any given day. But then there are days when he is desperate to get out of Iran altogether, which we can see with his panicky gestures — like the last strike, which actually achieved nothing but prepared Iran more for war, as the talks combined with bombardment don’t produce the results which Trump needs but make him look even weaker and more desperate. Has General Keene prepared Trump for a scenario where the ceasefire is over and he needs to move onto a new phase? Oil would only sweeten such a plan, and Keene makes no effort to hide this during his interview.

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