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ISW: The strikes will likely cascade into deeper disruption across Russia’s rear supply network

Drones of the 20th Separate Brigade of Ukraine's Unmanned Systems Forces (SBS), known as K-2, and the Phoenix drone unit strike a Russian military truck on a logistics route in Donetsk Oblast, 7 June 2026. Photo: SBS

Ukraine's drone strikes on the highways that feed Russian forces in occupied southern and eastern Ukraine are disrupting Russian logistics and will likely bite deeper in the near future, according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW). The campaign is also rattling Russia's pro-war online community, where bloggers have begun turning their anger on the Kremlin's own military leadership. Russian forces are already rerouting and disguising convoys to keep supplies moving.

Ukraine's drone war has dragged the fight off the trench line and into Russia's rear, where fuel and transport increasingly decide how long Moscow can keep its invasion supplied. If Ukrainian crews keep the main arteries under watch, Russia faces a slow squeeze on its rear and the political cost of admitting those roads are no longer safe.

Ukraine's drones now own a key supply road

Ukraine's 3rd Army Corps said on 31 May that its drones had won "fire control" over five occupied cities. All five sit on or near the M-04 highway: Luhansk City, Starobilsk, Alchevsk, Bryanka, and Kadiivka. In plain terms, Ukrainian crews can now strike traffic on that road.

Map of southern Ukraine and adjacent Russian territory showing three concentric Ukrainian drone strike zones — FPV at 20 km, AI-assisted Hornets at 150 km, and FP-1/FP-2 long-range drones at 200 km — layered over the M-14 highway (Rostov to occupied Crimea) and the H-20 (Mariupol north into Donetsk Oblast). The Mariupol-Crimea-Rostov segment of M-14 is highlighted as closed by Russia for civilian traffic. The Mykolaiv-Kherson segment is highlighted as closed by Ukraine in 2025.
Ukrainian drone strike zones layered over Russia's southern supply network. FPVs reach roughly 20 km from the front, Hornets and other AI-assisted drones to 150 km, and FP-1 and FP-2 long-range drones to 200 km. The M-14 highway (Rostov-on-Don to occupied Crimea) and H-20 (branches north from Mariupol into Donetsk Oblast) both fall inside the deeper rings. Russian authorities have closed the M-14 to civilian traffic. The Ukrainian segment of the same highway, between Kherson and Mykolaiv, was closed by Ukrainian authorities in August 2025 after Russian drones turned it into a "human safari" killing ground. Map: Euromaidan Press.

A Ukrainian drone operator argued the M-04 matters more to Russia than the better-known M-14. The M-14 links Rostov Oblast to occupied Crimea. The M-04 begins near Moscow and reaches Rostov-on-Don before carrying on to Russia's Black Sea coast and into the Caucasus. It feeds occupied Crimea, southern Ukraine, and Luhansk Oblast through the Russian towns of Millerovo and Kamensk-Shakhtinsky. It also supplies Donetsk Oblast through Novoshakhtinsk in Rostov Oblast.

The Russian vehicles are burning on the route to Crimea. Source: The 3rd Separate Special Purpose Regiment
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The two highways connect, and Ukrainian forces are also hitting the H-20 road that joins them through Donetsk City. ISW assessed that the strikes will likely generate "even more profound cascading effects" across Russia's rear. The effort extends Ukraine's wider push to drive deep strikes further behind the front.

Russia bans buses and repaints its trucks

The strikes are already forcing changes on the ground. Leonid Pasechnik, the Russian-installed head of occupied Luhansk Oblast, issued a decree on 6 June. It bars regular bus and coach services on the section of the highway crossing occupied Luhansk.

A Russian “Svitlyak” border patrol ship seen from a Ukrainian drone before a strike near Yurkine, occupied Crimea. Screenshot from video: Madyar
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The Crimean Bridge is heavily guarded. Ukraine struck its maritime security layer in the Kerch Strait.

Ukrainian Mariupol mayoral adviser Petro Andriushchenko reported on 7 June that Russian forces had changed their Mariupol–Berdiansk route. They now use local coastal roads instead of the M-14. ndriushchenko said the troops are passing army vehicles off as civilian, recoloring the tarpaulins over each cargo bed and spraying the trucks white. ISW assessed the detours will likely slow Russian supply runs as Ukraine keeps hunting vehicles.

Russia's war bloggers turn on the Kremlin's generals

Ukraine's strikes are landing in Russia's information space too. Russia's pro-war military bloggers are voicing discontent and panic over the campaign.

Russian military truck on fire after a Ukrainian drone strike near occupied Horlivka, Donetsk Oblast, 5 June 2026. Screenshot from video: Supernova+
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A pro-war blogger and former Storm-Z assault-unit instructor complained on 7 June that Ukraine is now striking factories and defense plants deep inside Russia while degrading Russian air-defense radars and systems. He blamed bureaucracy and state-corporate infighting for Moscow's failure to respond, and separately complained that Russia cannot read Ukraine's battlefield trends and underrates its capabilities. Other bloggers piled on: one claimed fuel shortages were stoking panic in occupied Crimea, while others faulted the Russian Defense Ministry and top general Valery Gerasimov for not striking Ukrainian logistics, especially the Dnipro River bridges.

ISW found the complaints are escalating, and that the strike campaigns are becoming "points of neuralgia" in Russia's ultranationalist crowd. It noted the discontent feeds on Russia's poor battlefield results, rising casualties, and economic strain. Even before this, Russia's war bloggers had turned on the Kremlin's commanders over inflated victory claims.

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Ukraine has built 822 kilometers of anti-drone road tunnels. Each kilometer means safer evacuations and faster supply

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Ukraine has built 822 kilometers of anti-drone protection along frontline logistics routes since the start of 2026 and has restored more than 170 kilometers of damaged regular roads in frontline oblasts, Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov says. In May alone, Ukraine's State Special Transport Service built 211 km of new anti-drone protection. 

Russian FPVs and reconnaissance UAVs hunting Ukrainian vehicles within 15-30 km of the front have forced Ukraine to build a permanent national infrastructure for drone-protected movement on its own side.

How does protection work? 

Anti-drone protection on Ukrainian frontline roads typically takes the form of overhead netting tunnels, wire-mesh canopies, and reinforced barriers along sections of road within reach of Russian FPV drone operators.

The structures intercept FPVs before they strike vehicles, allowing supply trucks, casualty-evacuation vehicles, and personnel rotations to move along otherwise lethal stretches of road.

The May 2026 build-out

In May 2026, Ukraine restored 38 km of previously damaged protected segments and rebuilt 115.5 km of standard frontline roads.

The combination of new construction, maintenance, and regular road repair reflects the operational reality that Russian strikes constantly attrit the network even as Ukraine extends it.

"Each protected kilometer means safer logistics, faster supply, casualty evacuation, and safer military movement even under constant threat of drone attacks," Fedorov said.

Mirror campaigns

Meanwhile, Ukraine's offensive logistics campaign has driven Russia to restrict civilian transport on its main occupied-territory highways. Russia is reportedly banning regular bus services on the R-280 "Novorossiya" route and the R-150 Belgorod-Mariupol highway after Ukrainian drones.

Ukraine, on its own side, is building physical infrastructure, such as netting, wire, and barriers, to keep its own logistics moving under the same drone pressure that Russia is failing to manage on the other side of the line. 

Meanwhile, Russia has installed anti-drone nets at its facilities, such as the Velikolukskaya oil depot in Velikiye Luki, Pskov Oblast. 

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Flat steppe: Ukraine is strangling Crimea’s supply lines from air. Melitopol-Chonhar road is latest target

The Russian vehicles are burning on the route to Crimea. Source: The 3rd Separate Special Purpose Regiment

Ukrainian Special Operations Forces drone operators have established aerial control over part of the Russian land supply route from occupied Melitopol to Chonhar. The path is the entry point to Crimea, and they are destroying Russian equipment and disrupting Russian military logistics on the road, the 3rd Separate Special Purpose Regiment announces.

Russian forces on the peninsula already depend on a constrained set of supply lines: the Kerch Bridge (under sustained Ukrainian threat since 2022), the rail and road corridor through occupied Donetsk Oblast, and the Melitopol-Chonhar bottleneck. Ukrainian aerial denial of any one of these links compounds pressure on the others. 

Squeezing land corridor from both ends

The new operation puts pressure on the land corridor's western end. On 31 May, Mariupol residents reported in local group chats that Russia shut down part of its land corridor from Crimea to occupied Donetsk because of Ukrainian drones.

The Melitopol-Chonhar segment crosses flat steppe with limited cover and funnels Russian convoys through narrow bridge crossings over the Syvash to reach the peninsula, the terrain optimal for drone operators to deny the air with persistent surveillance and strike capability. 

SSO drones as the strangulation instrument

The 3rd Separate Special Purpose Regiment is one of Ukraine's veteran Special Operations Forces units, named after the tenth-century Kyivan Rus prince.

The regiment's deployment of drone operators against Russian logistics on the Melitopol-Chonhar route fits within Ukraine's broader "logistics lockdown" approach to occupied territory. Ukraine's Defense Ministry has recently committed $113 million to medium-strike drones designed to target Russian rear logistics.

"Drones of the Special Operations Forces unit are destroying equipment and breaking the enemy's logistics routes on the Melitopol-Chonhar route," the 3rd Regiment said.

What does this change for Russia on peninsula? 

Russia's military presence in Crimea depends on a continuous supply of fuel, ammunition, and food, as well as on personnel rotation. 

"As a result, the already-difficult logistics for supplying the Russian army and fuel to the peninsula have grown harder," the SSO said.

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