Russia is building new military bases and expanding existing ones along its northern border with NATO, according to ISW. The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) assesses that the construction likely supports future Russian force projection against the alliance. Near-term Russian ground operations remain unlikely, the think tank notes, since most Russian combat power stays committed in Ukraine.

Satellite images show construction from Norway to Kaliningrad

Broadcasters in Norway, Sweden, and Denmark, together with a Baltic news portal, published satellite findings of the buildup on 10 June. Russian forces are putting up new facilities and growing old ones near the frontiers of the Nordic and Baltic states. Intelligence officers and senior commanders in Denmark told broadcaster DR the work amounts to preparation for conflict. They see nothing indicating Moscow has actually decided on war, not least because the bulk of its army remains tied down in Ukraine.

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“We don’t think all of this is just for demonstration”: Russia is constructing infrastructure with potential capacity up to 115,000 personnel on NATO’s doorstep

Finland braces for 80,000 Russian troops at its border

Marko Eklund, a former Finnish intelligence officer, told DR that the Russian command plans to deploy about 115,000 troops at the northern NATO border. That deployment would come after the war in Ukraine ends. Construction has begun on a new Russian base at Novaya Vilza, outside Petrozavodsk in the Republic of Karelia. The site sits roughly 190 kilometers from Finland and will hold 4,000 to 6,000 personnel. Russia began renovating an abandoned Soviet-era garrison in Petrozavodsk earlier this year. Finland's army chief, Pasi Välimäki, expects Russia to put 80,000 soldiers on the shared border, he told Swedish broadcaster SVT.

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A corps command waits in Luga as Karelia bases rise

A source covering the Russian Northern Grouping of Forces claimed Russia's command is moving parts of the 44th Army Corps, a Leningrad Military District formation, to the Republic of Karelia. Only the command post stays behind for now. Those command-post elements currently sit in Luga, Leningrad Oblast, ready to shift to Petrozavodsk once Russia finishes the bases, the source claimed.

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Russia builds up military presence near Finland’s border – WSJ

A Kremlin-affiliated Russian milblogger claimed on 11 June that crews are upgrading at least 19 barracks, along with support and storage buildings, at Pechenga on the Kola Peninsula in Murmansk Oblast. The site lies about 10 kilometers from the Norwegian border. The milblogger also claimed Baltiysk in Kaliningrad Oblast is getting a bigger naval infantry footprint, more armor, and additional landing craft.

ISW: bases serve post-war force projection

"Russia is establishing these bases to support potential future military actions against NATO, though such ground operations remain unlikely, as most of Russia's combat power is participating in operations in Ukraine," ISW says.

Once the shooting in Ukraine stops, the finished bases would shorten Russia's timeline for massing troops at NATO's frontier, ISW assesses. That leaves NATO needing the readiness to hold off — and, failing that, beat back — a Russian threat at its borders soon after combat in Ukraine stops, in ISW's assessment.

Russian forces have made fresh tactical advances into Kostiantynivka, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) assessed on 10 June. The city sits at the southern tip of Ukraine's Donetsk Oblast Fortress Belt — Moscow's main effort for the spring-summer 2026 offensive. Russia missed its own May deadline to take the city, and the wider fortified chain stays out of operational reach.

Two Russian tactical groups push into eastern Kostiantynivka

Two named Russian formations have pushed into eastern Kostiantynivka from the south, Ukrainian military observer Kostiantyn Mashovets reported on 10 June. He identified them as the "Bakhmut" tactical group and the "Dzerzhinsk" (Toretsk) tactical group. The "Bakhmut" group is built around Russia's 3rd Army Corps (AC) under the Southern Grouping of Forces. The "Dzerzhinsk" group operates in the area of responsibility of the 8th Combined Arms Army (CAA) of the Southern Military District. It likely includes elements of five CAAs, the 3rd AC, and Russian naval fleets, Mashovets noted.

Elements of the "Bakhmut" group pushed from Stupochky through Novodmytrivka into northeastern Kostiantynivka. They also advanced along the T-0504 Pokrovsk-Bakhmut road as far as the city's railway station. The "Dzerzhinsk" group moved from Illinivka, south of the city, into areas stretching from northwestern to southwestern Kostiantynivka near the railway station. Mashovets assessed that it has likely achieved a tactical breakthrough in the western, central part of the city. Forward assault elements of the two groups now stand roughly two kilometers apart. Russian forces have so far failed to seize the railway station. Ukrainian troops cleared the village of Dovha Blaka southwest of the city of Russian infiltrators.

Eight months of grinding, one missed deadline

ISW noted that Russian forces opened the campaign for Kostiantynivka in August 2025 after seizing the majority of Chasiv Yar and Toretsk, with Toretsk alone running to roughly 26,000 Russian casualties. The first Russian troops infiltrated Kostiantynivka itself in October 2025. Russia has since worked into at least 12.69% of the city. Ukrainian officials reported earlier this spring that the Russian command had set a May 2026 deadline for the seizure. That deadline has come and gone.

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Russia has poured forces into the effort regardless. Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi said on 2 May that Russian activity in this direction noticeably increased in April. Russian units in the area had reportedly been replenished by 80% as of 6 June, ISW noted. The Russian command reportedly redeployed elements of the 70th Motorized Rifle Division to the Kostiantynivka-Chasiv Yar area last December. The redeployment likely came in preparation for the spring push.

Tactical gains likely, the Fortress Belt still out of reach

ISW assessed that Russian forces will likely keep infiltrating throughout Kostiantynivka. They will likely consolidate positions in parts of the city while suffering high casualties. Russia's 3rd AC northeast of the city appears to be struggling to dislodge Ukrainian forces from Chasiv Yar. That inhibits any move to envelop Kostiantynivka from the north. A Russian milblogger claimed on 9 June that Ukrainian forces recently counterattacked near Chasiv Yar. The milblogger added that Ukraine still holds Podilske and Mykolaivka west of the town.

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ISW: Russia’s grand territorial ambitions are divorced from battlefield reality

The northern flank of the Fortress Belt is also bogged down. Russia opened its spring-summer 2026 offensive with mechanized assaults around Lyman. Those assaults signaled intent to advance on Sloviansk from the northeast. They produced no significant gains, ISW noted. The Russian command likely shifted weight south to Kostiantynivka. Russia's Western Grouping of Forces covers the front from Kupiansk through Lyman. It likely lacks the combat power to push on Sloviansk while balancing operations toward Kupiansk and Borova.