Colombia’s first-round presidential election, won by tough-talking conservative Abelardo de la Espriella, signaled what analysts describe as a growing backlash across Latin America against leftist governments.

The presidential election could carry significant implications for U.S. interests in the region, including drug trafficking, migration and regional stability, as voters increasingly prioritize security, counternarcotics policies and economic stability ahead of a June 21 runoff between de la Espriella and leftist candidate Ivan Cepeda.

"For the Trump administration, a Colombia that recommits itself to security cooperation, counternarcotics efforts, and stronger democratic institutions would be a major win and an important step forward towards restoring stability across the Western Hemisphere," Melissa Ford Maldonado of the America First Policy Institute (AFPI) told Fox News Digital from Colombia.

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"What happens in Colombia affects the flow of drugs into American communities, the strength of transnational criminal networks, migration pressures and the broader balance between democratic governments and criminalized regimes throughout the region," she added.

The first-round winner, de la Espriella, a conservative lawyer and political outsider known as "El Tigre" ("The Tiger"), has emerged as the face of Colombia's security-focused shift. 

An admirer of President Donald Trump and El Salvador's President Nayib Bukele, won 43.7% of the vote Sunday, outperforming most polls and advancing to a runoff against left-wing Cepeda, the candidate backed by President Gustavo Petro. 

His campaign has centered on a hardline crackdown on criminal organizations, which he argues have flourished under Petro's "Total Peace" policy.

In an interview with the Associated Press, de la Espriella pledged to open mega-prisons and take a far more aggressive approach toward criminal groups. "Criminals will either surrender or leave the country," he said.

The vote comes as Colombia faces rising violence, expanding criminal organizations and growing criticism of President Gustavo Petro’s "Total Peace" strategy, which sought negotiations with armed groups and criminal networks.

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"Colombia heads into a June 21 runoff with armed groups controlling vast stretches of the country, a failed ‘Total Peace’ negotiating strategy leaving communities more exposed than when it began, and a Venezuelan refugee crisis that has overwhelmed the state's already thin capacity to govern its own territory," Daniel Swift, senior research analyst at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies told Fox News Digital.

Maldonado said Colombia’s election reflects a wider political shift taking place across Latin America.

"This election is part of a broader trend across Latin America, where voters are increasingly rejecting the failed promises of the left in favor of security, sovereignty and economic opportunity," she said.

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"We’ve seen it in Argentina, Ecuador, Bolivia, Chile, Honduras, Costa Rica and now increasingly in Colombia."

Swift agreed the election results reflect a broader regional trend.

He said with de la Espriella outperforming "every poll, with security at the top of every voter's mind — confirms that Colombia is part of a broader regional reckoning: Latin Americans are losing patience with governments that cannot provide security," Swift said.

Maldonado said the results reflected mounting frustration with the country’s direction under Petro.

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"Years of growing insecurity, rising coca cultivation, expanding criminal organizations, and concessions to armed groups have left many Colombian people frustrated with the direction of the country," she added.

The June 21 runoff is expected to focus heavily on security policy, organized crime and Colombia’s future relationship with the United States under the Trump administration. Maldonado argues it "offers Colombia an opportunity to begin reversing course and reestablish a principle that should have never been up for debate: criminal organizations should be confronted, not negotiated with."

A hardline, law-and-order candidate who promises to dismantle drug cartels and reset Colombia’s security doctrine is gaining traction with voters as Colombians vote in Sunday's presidential election.

As the world’s largest cocaine producer and a long-standing U.S. security partner, Colombia’s internal policies directly affect narcotics flows, migration dynamics and regional stability.

Analysts believe a shift in Bogotá’s leadership could reshape cooperation with Washington on drug interdiction, intelligence sharing and counter-cartel operations — issues that remain central to U.S. domestic and foreign policy.

Abelardo De La Espriella, a businessman and successful defense attorney, has emerged as a leading candidate on the right with a platform focused on aggressive counternarcotics enforcement, institutional reform and a decisive break from current leftist President Gustavo Petro’s negotiation-based approach with armed rebel groups. 

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The 47-year-old, nicknamed ‘The Tiger,' recently told the Associated Press, "The only peace process I believe in is one imposed by the force of arms and the laws of the republic. Under my government, any bandit who resists will be eliminated as appropriate, and if he submits, we will imprison him in a mega prison so he can pay his debt to justice as they should."

His rise mirrors a regional pattern seen with leaders like Javier Milei, Nayib Bukele and José Antonio Kast figures who have built political momentum around security-first agendas and voter frustration with crime and economic instability.

According to an Associated Press report, polls say De La Espriella is likely to fight it out with leftist candidate Iván Cepeda, who is from the same party as President Gustavo Petro, and center-right candidate Paloma Valencia. There are 14 candidates on the ballot.

Valencia’s campaign is backed by most of the nation’s traditional parties and by economists who are concerned about the growing levels of debt under the Petro administration and want Colombia to return to more orthodox policies, the Associated Press reported.

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Valencia told Fox News Digital, "As president of Colombia, we will restore a strategic, close, and trustworthy relationship with the United States, based on mutual respect and the defense of our national interests. We will strengthen cooperation in security, intelligence, military training, and the fight against transnational crime; areas in which the alliance between our two countries has been essential to Colombia’s stability. We will also work to ensure that Colombia plays an active role in the Shield of the Americas and contributes to regional leadership in defense and security. "

She added, "The United States will continue to be a key partner for economic growth, investment, and job creation, as well as a vital ally for the millions of Colombians who live there. Colombia will also stand alongside the United States in defending freedom and democracy across the hemisphere, supporting efforts to restore liberty in Cuba and to help Venezuela return to a democratic path. Our relationship will be defined by trust, cooperation, and the pursuit of tangible benefits for Colombia and its citizens."

Critics say leftist candidate Iván Cepeda, represents a continuation and potential expansion of the leftist policies associated with Petro. Cepeda supports dialogue with armed groups, rural reform and a reform of Colombia’s traditional security framework, placing greater emphasis on social investment.

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Camilo Guzmán, executive director of Libertank, told Fox News Digital that Sunday’s election will likely result in a runoff between Cepeda and De La Espriella. "Abelardo earned that ticket by reading the room better than anyone else in the opposition. He offered catharsis, speaking directly to Colombian voters' indignation toward the traditional political class and the establishment. 

"Where center-right Senator Paloma Valencia offered competence and continuity with the Uribe tradition, he said, De La Espriella’s message "is built on a hard line on security," Guzman added. "Ending Petro's failed ‘total peace’ policy that emboldened guerrillas and cartels, going after narco-trafficking with full force, and rebuilding the counter-narcotics alliance with Washington that Petro spent four years dismantling."

Analysts say the outcome for the U.S. carries significant strategic weight. A De La Espriella administration could align more closely with Washington’s traditional counternarcotics priorities, potentially strengthening bilateral cooperation at a time when synthetic drug flows and organized crime networks are expanding across the hemisphere.

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Beyond bilateral relations, the election is being closely watched as a potential inflection point for Latin America. A De La Espriella or Valencia win would reinforce the momentum of security-focused leadership seen in parts of the region, while a Cepeda presidency would signal continuity for Petro’s policies.

José Manuel Restrepo, candidate for vice president on the ticket with De La Espriella talked exclusively to Fox News Digital. "The relationship between Colombia and the United States needs to be recovered and rebuilt, and this starts with a sound security policy to combat drug trafficking. It will be crucial to move beyond the current deteriorated relationship, in which we lost the historic bilateral, bicameral, bipartisan, and multisectoral relationship with our primary trading and investment partner."

He continued, "To strengthen it, we must seize the opportunity for Colombia to become the United States' best possible ally in the restoration of democracy in Venezuela. Leveraging this relationship with the United States, we can play a major role in investing in food, hygiene products and basic needs from Colombia to Venezuela. This would, among other things, give a new direction to the relationship with the United States, creating new opportunities that benefit Colombia…Under our administration, the relationship with the United States would be strengthened and revitalized.

Guzman noted that "De La Espriella's anti-establishment posture is not a libertarian agenda. His economic program leans on price controls, interest-rate subsidies, and import substitution, closer to old-school Latin American populism than to Bukele's pro-investment turn, and a world away from Milei's free-market project. Whether the economic program that comes with it creates new instability south of the border is the open question."

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Analyst, entrepreneur and son of a former president Jerónimo Uribe said the stakes could not be clearer in Sunday's presidential race. "The elections in Colombia are not between the left and the right. They are between a communist model propped up by drug traffickers and a model that defends democracy and freedom," he told Fox News Digital.

Representatives for Cepeda did not immediately respond to a request for comment from Fox News Digital.

The Associated Press contributed to this report.