Brazil could achieve net-zero emissions by 2040 and emerge as a global leader in combating the climate emergency, Brazilian climatologist Carlos Nobre assessed during the opening of the first edition of Rio Nature & Climate Week (RNCW), held from June 2 to 6 in Rio de Janeiro. Nobre, one of the world's most respected climate scientists, warned of approaching tipping points in key Brazilian biomes but argued that the country has the potential to combine emission reductions, environmental conservation, and economic development.
— We climate scientists no longer use the term 'climate change.' For us, it's a climate emergency — he said. — The big question is: can we avoid the tipping points in Brazilian biomes? I believe we can.
Nobre stated that four out of the country's six biomes—Amazon, Cerrado, Pantanal, and Caatinga—are already showing signs of nearing the so-called tipping points, thresholds beyond which environmental changes could become irreversible. The path in this direction, he said, is accelerating: the years 2023, 2024, and 2025 have, for the first time, recorded global average temperatures close to 1.5° Celsius above pre-industrial levels, a threshold that the Paris Agreement defined as one to avoid.
Warmer oceans, increased atmospheric moisture, and greater energy availability in the climate system have contributed to the intensification of extreme events in different parts of the world. Recent studies presented by the scientist indicate that there is a chance the world could permanently reach the 1.5° warming level as early as around 2030, rather than 2050 as previously thought a decade ago. This prospect is concerning because it increases the risk of various natural systems exceeding their stability limits.
— That's why all extreme events are breaking records worldwide: heatwaves, extreme rains, droughts, gales, storm surges, and forest fires. There is much more energy available in the climate system — he stated. — Science has known this for a long time.
Currently, he explained, the scientific community monitors around 25 tipping points globally, related to atmospheric, oceanic, hydrological, and ecological processes. In the Cerrado alone, 52% of its original cover has already been deforested, primarily for livestock expansion and, more recently, soybean monoculture. The advance of native vegetation conversion has led to increased temperatures, reduced evapotranspiration, and growth in forest fires.
The expansion of areas with Caatinga-like characteristics over the Cerrado is already observable in different regions. Studies presented by Nobre indicate that if the biome surpasses its tipping point, up to 70% of its area could acquire characteristics similar to semi-arid regions. Meanwhile, in the Caatinga, about 48% of the biome has already been deforested, and 62% of the area is at risk of desertification. New research mentioned by the scientist identified semi-desert characteristics in northern Bahia regions.
— The Caatinga is very close to a tipping point. The same applies to the Pantanal, the largest continuous flooded area on the planet. An ecosystem of enormous ecological importance, with extraordinary biodiversity — he said, linking the biome's vulnerability to changes in water regimes, the construction of hydroelectric plants and waterways, deforestation, and climate change. — Record droughts observed in 2020, 2021, 2023, and 2024 had severe impacts, as did the significant increase in fires.
In the case of the Amazon, a region Nobre has studied for over four decades, he highlighted that about 18% of the original forest cover has already been lost. Besides deforestation, the scientist drew attention to the increase in extreme droughts, the prolongation of the dry season, and the growth of forest degradation. The combination of deforestation and global warming, he stated, could lead the Amazon Rainforest to surpass its tipping point more rapidly, also accelerating the degradation of the Pantanal, Cerrado, and Atlantic Forest.
Despite the risks, Nobre dedicated much of his presentation to solutions he believes could prevent this scenario. Among them is a study indicating the possibility for the country to reach net-zero emissions by 2040. The goal would require zero deforestation, the elimination of forest degradation, restoration of degraded areas, expansion of renewable energy, and the adoption of regenerative agriculture and livestock models.
The proposal envisions an energy matrix based on renewable sources such as solar, wind, green hydrogen, and biofuels, along with increased use of electric vehicles. In the land-use sector, the researcher advocated for the restoration of degraded areas in all Brazilian biomes to enhance carbon removal from the atmosphere.
Another central axis of the strategy is the strengthening of the socio-bioeconomy. According to Nobre, although Brazil harbors between 18% and 20% of the world's known biodiversity, products derived from this heritage still have limited participation in the national economy. The researcher advocated for combining scientific knowledge, technological innovation, and traditional knowledge to increase income generation linked to environmental conservation. As an example, he cited agroforestry systems, productive chains related to Amazonian biodiversity products, and initiatives aimed at local industrialization of these products.
— We need to integrate scientific knowledge with indigenous and traditional knowledge — he asserted, arguing that addressing the climate emergency requires both accelerated emissions reduction and investments in adaptation, protection of vulnerable populations, and climate education. — We need to achieve zero deforestation across all biomes. Brazil's sustainable development should be based on scientific knowledge, technological innovation, and the wisdom of indigenous peoples and local communities. This is the path to building a sustainable socio-bioeconomy capable of promoting environmental conservation, social development, and prosperity.
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