Abelardo de la Espriella surprised many with his first-round victory in Colombia with 44% of the vote. The leader in the polls had consistently been left-wing senator Iván Cepeda, with the far-right candidate appearing in second place. However, those polls showed Cepeda hovering around 40% of voter intention — and he received just that. They also reflected a significant rise for the far-right candidate in recent weeks, as well as a loss of appeal for traditional right-wing candidate Paloma Valencia. In those surveys the two of them together polled roughly between 35% and 40% of voting intention. In the end, De la Espriella reached 44% and Valencia managed only 6%.

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Abelardo de la Espriella’s unexpected victory over Iván Cepeda on Sunday, in the first round of Colombia’s presidential election, shows that right‑wing voters are now almost entirely united behind the penal lawyer, while left‑wing voters are fully consolidated behind the senator. The 653,000‑vote margin the far-right candidate held over the senator seems small in an election where 24 million people cast a vote and more than 3 million voted for other candidates. The challenge for the runoff would appear to be persuading those voters — but given the candidates’ profiles and recent history, the path necessarily also runs through the mobilization of people who did not go to the polls on Sunday.

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