The emerging agreement with Iran that President Donald Trump is touting does not appear to achieve several of the key goals he stated at the outset of the military conflict over three months ago.

For one, it’s unclear whether the president’s core objective of permanently preventing Iran from obtaining a nuclear bomb will be achieved. Experts say that based on the limited information provided by the administration so far, Iran offered Trump’s envoys a better nuclear deal before the war than the one Tehran is apparently offering now.

The killing of the country’s top leaders by the U.S. and Israel appears to have strengthened and emboldened the powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps, and Iran’s new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, is more radical than his late father, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Having demonstrated their ability to close the Strait of Hormuz and absorb U.S. and Israeli air attacks, Iran’s new hardline leaders, experts say, are likely determined to maintain its nuclear program in some form and wield greater influence in the Middle East.

“A war meant to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons will be the war that pushed them over the Rubicon,” Danny Citrinowicz, a retired Israeli military intelligence officer, told The New York Times.

There appear to be several key holes in the draft memorandum of understanding as it was outlined by a senior Trump administration official to reporters on Friday. 

It is unclear whether both sides have agreed to the final wording of the memorandum.

Trump said on Saturday that he expected the “deal,” as he called it, to be signed on Sunday. But a spokesman for Iran’s foreign ministry reportedly said any signing of a memorandum of understanding “will not be tomorrow.”

No limits on missiles:

The senior administration official  did not describe to reporters that any specific limits on Iran’s missile stockpile had been agreed to as part of the memorandum. When Trump announced the war on Feb. 28, he said one of the administration’s core goals was to “destroy their missiles.” Recent U.S. intelligence assessments found that 70% of Iran’s missile stockpile remains intact.

Future funding of Iran’s proxies:

There are also apparently no clear references to another goal Trump described at the outset of the war, to “ensure that the regime’s terrorist proxies can no longer destabilize the region.” The senior administration official only said the agreement would end fighting across the region and, as a result, Iran would apparently no longer fund its proxies.

“We feel confident that the Israelis, that the Gulf Coast partners, that the Americans and the Iranians are all going to get behind this thing,” the official said. “And we can make it enforceable, and we can make it stick.”

Few details about nuclear program:

The senior administration official said Iran will be allowed to have a civilian nuclear power program, a key demand from the Iranians that hardliners in the U.S. and Israel have long opposed. 

And the most important question about a civilian nuclear program — whether Iranian officials would be allowed to enrich uranium on its own inside Iran — was not clearly answered on the call. For years, Iran has insisted it must be allowed to enrich uranium to a low level inside Iran for civilian energy purposes.

The official said Iran’s enriched uranium will be down-blended, which was also part of the Obama-era agreement, known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action. One element of the draft memorandum  as described that is potentially better than the JCPOA is that all of Iran’s enriched uranium would be removed from the country after it is down-blended, according to the administration official. Under the JCPOA, 300 kilograms of enriched uranium was allowed to remain in Iran.

Palettes of cash:

Iran will not receive any funding until it has implemented each element of the deal, the senior administration official said. If it does implement the agreement, the official said Iran will be relieved of “a lot of the economic pressures,” be “reintegrated into the world economy,” and get “rewarded for acting like a normal country.” If the deal is implemented as the senior official described, it appears that Iran will receive vastly more money than it did under Obama’s JCPOA.

Israel and Lebanon:

The senior Trump official also said the deal includes an end to fighting  in Lebanon, one of Iran’s goals but a step that Israeli officials may oppose. Israeli officials have said they  reserve the right to attack Hezbollah in Lebanon if it threatens Israel.

The official said the agreement was a “broad regional peace agreement.” He added that “it includes Lebanon, it includes Iran, it includes the Gulf Coast countries, it includes Israel. And we feel quite confident that all of our allies, the Israelis and the Gulf Coast Coalition, will get on board.”

Clarissa-Jan Lim contributed to this report, excerpts of which appeared in MS NOW’s live Iran war coverage on Friday.

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Republican members of the Senate Armed Services Committee blocked a Democratic effort Thursday to strengthen existing bans on federal troops entering polling stations or seizing ballots or voting machines, two senators told MS NOW.

Democrats called the Republicans’ opposition to the measure “deeply alarming” and predicted that President Donald Trump would deploy federal troops in an effort to interfere in this November’s midterm elections, which polls suggest his party will lose.

“I introduced these amendments to protect our free and fair elections from military interference,” Sen. Elissa Slotkin, D-Mich., said. “It’s deeply concerning that none of my Republican colleagues on the committee voted to include it.”

Sen. Richard Blumenthal, D-Conn., said he feared the party-line vote was a sign that Trump and his Republican allies would try to use the federal troops to sway the outcome of the midterms.

“Republican opposition to barring use of federal troops at the polls is deeply alarming, signaling this extreme step is part of Trump’s agenda to suppress voting,” he said. “I’m fearful about it portending illegal domestic deployment of our military.”

The Republican chairman of the committee, Sen. Roger Wicker, R-Miss., did not respond to MS NOW’s request for comment.

Slotkin said she first proposed that the committee adopt an amendment to the National Defense Authorization Act, which approves the annual defense budget; the amendment would have prohibited the use of any funds to deploy federal troops to seize ballots, voter rolls, voting machines or other election materials.

After that amendment was voted down, she proposed a second amendment to require that Congress be notified of any deployment of troops to polling places, except for the deployment of U.S. military forces to repel “armed enemies of the United States.”

Slotkin cited two moves by the Trump administration as evidence that the president intends to interfere in the election: Trump told The New York Times in January that he wished he had signed a draft executive order in December 2020 that would have sent the military to seize ballots in Michigan. And during an April Senate hearing, Slotkin asked Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth if he would pledge not to send federal troops to polling stations.

“That’s not a hard question,” Slotkin said. “Time and time again, Secretary Hegseth has dodged, deflected and tried to change the subject.”

Slotkin said the amendments also included language intended to prevent U.S. military forces from facing pressure to carry out illegal orders. Slotkin was one of six Democratic lawmakers who posted a video in November urging members of the armed forces not to obey illegal orders. Trump accused them of “seditious behavior” and directed the Department of Justice to prosecute them; that case was dropped in February.

“I introduced these amendments to protect our free and fair elections from military interference and intimidation, and importantly, to protect the military and service members from the exact kind of illegal orders I warned about last year,” Slotkin said.

Slotkin said Trump’s recent claim that elections in California are “rigged” is a way of laying the groundwork for him to improperly interfere in the midterm elections or refuse to accept the outcome.

“This is in line with the president saying over and over again that if his side loses, the election is rigged, including as recently as yesterday,” Slotkin said. “It’s deeply concerning that none of my Republican colleagues on the committee voted to include it.”

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The tenuous ceasefire in the Middle East seemed to be holding on by a thread on Sunday as Israel and Iran exchanged missile fire for the first time since an agreement to end hostilities was reached in April.

Meanwhile, Israel said early Monday that it detected a missile launched from Yemen targeting the country, according to the Associated Press. Yemen is home to the Iran-backed Houthi rebels. And Saudi Arabia sounded air warning sirens in an area close to an air base housing U.S. forces, the AP also reported, though that country said shortly afterwards that the danger had passed.

The escalation amounted to the most significant exchange of fire since the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran was put on pause in April. The renewed fighting also threatened to undermine President Donald Trump’s negotiations with Iran as the U.S. president appears to be seeking a way out of a war that is unpopular with Americans and has sent gas prices soaring.

Trump called for de-escalation in a short Truth Social post Monday morning: “Israel and Iran must immediately stop ‘shooting.’”

“Both sides, Israel and Iran, are looking to do an immediate CEASEFIRE!” Trump wrote in a subsequent post. “Final negotiations on “Peace” are proceeding, subject to ignorance or stupidity getting in its way. The Blockade will remain in place, and in full force and effect, until a “Final Deal” is reached. Things should move quickly.”

The fighting began Sunday when Israel launched airstrikes on Lebanon, which has been a sore point in the negotiations between the U.S. and Iran as Israel continues to pursue that conflict. Tehran retaliated by firing missiles at Israel, the first missiles launched at Israel in two months as the war reached its 100th day.

Earlier Monday, Israel responded by launching airstrikes targeting central and western Iran. Officials did not give details on exactly what had been struck.

“A short while ago, the Israeli Air Force struck military targets belonging to the Iranian terror regime in western and central Iran,” said the Israeli military.

The White House did not respond to messages about the Israel-launched strikes or whether they were done in coordination with the U.S. However, Trump, according to Axios, said he was going to call Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and “tell him not to strike back.”

If the two talked, Netanyahu apparently did not listen.

And Trump, in a series of interviews with the media on Sunday before the Israeli strikes on Iran, gave conflicting signals about whether peace negotiations were in trouble.

Fox News’ Trey Yingst said Trump told the news outlet regarding the Iranian missiles launched Sunday, “It’s certainly not going to help negotiations,” and he urged Iran to reach a deal.

But an Iranian official linked to the talks between the U.S. and Iran said that “a deal with President Trump is no longer feasible at this stage.”

The official blamed Trump for the current situation and the escalation of hostilities in Lebanon.

Before the Israeli attacks, Trump told the Financial Times on Sunday evening that Netanyahu “won’t have any choice” but to accept the deal the U.S. negotiates with Iran.

“I call the shots. I call all the shots. He [Netanyahu] doesn’t call the shots,” he said, adding the Iranian strikes on Israel were “not going to have any impact on the deal.”

“The deal may make it on its own merit, or not, but this will not have any effect on it,” Trump explained.

“I call the shots. I call all the shots. He [Benjamin Netanyahu] doesn’t call the shots,” Presiden Donald Trump said, adding the strikes were “not going to have any impact on the deal.”

However, if a deal fails, Trump told the Financial Times the U.S. would consider further military action and would continue the U.S. blockade of Iranian ports.

“Number one, it would mean that possibly we would go in and take care of the rest of the place that we didn’t take care of militarily,” he said. “Or it would just mean that we would keep the blockade on Iran because the blockade has been probably more powerful than any attack that was ever made on that country.”

But a White House official granted anonymity to speak candidly told MS NOW Trump has underestimated the willingness of Iran to resume conflict.

“The recent negotiations with Iran in many ways have exposed a fundamental miscalculation” by the president and the White House, the official said, adding that Iran’s “erratic behavior” has heightened the situation with no imminent off ramp.

Earlier Sunday, the Israeli military, which launched the war against Iran jointly with the U.S. on Feb. 28, said sirens were sounded in several areas of the country and Iran confirmed it launched the missiles. “Tonight’s operation was solely intended as a warning. Should these acts of aggression continue, future responses will be broader in scope and will encompass all American and Israeli targets throughout the region,” Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps said in a statement posted on Telegram.

In addition to Sunday’s fresh strikes, military clashes continued across the region and talks between the two sides have stalled, four Middle East officials and diplomats told MS NOW.

‘I think we’re very close’

Until Sunday, Trump had continued to say a deal is close. “I think we’re very close. We have a couple of points,” he told NBC News in an interview that aired Sunday. “They don’t even seem like big points.”

Over the weekend, U.S. commandos seized an Iranian oil tanker and shot down multiple Iranian drones. Clashes between Israeli forces and Hezbollah in Lebanon also intensified.

Four Middle East officials and diplomats told MS NOW that significant disagreements remain. All of them spoke on condition of anonymity, citing the sensitivity of the talks.

A senior official in the region told MS NOW on Friday that three issues remain unresolved: The sequencing of the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, American demands regarding Iran’s nuclear program and Iranian demands to receive relief funds up front as part of the agreement.

A senior Middle East diplomat also said Friday that negotiations have regressed.

“There are no meaningful negotiations taking place between the two countries as they stand,” the diplomat told MS NOW.

Trump administration officials say talks are progressing and dismissed the statements from officials in the region. 

“This is grossly inaccurate, as MS NOW always is when they rely on mysterious ‘Middle Eastern diplomats’ who have no idea what they are talking about,” said Anna Kelly, a White House spokesperson.

A Pakistani foreign ministry source with knowledge of the talks expressed optimism as well. They told MS NOW that this weekend’s visit of Pakistan’s interior minister to Iran was “extremely positive” and “Iran showed signs of progress towards agreeing on a framework.” 

Nicole Grajewski, an assistant professor at Sciences Po in Paris and an associate at Harvard University’s Kennedy School of Government, told MS NOW that the continued military clashes between the two sides are not aiding negotiations.

“The persistent strikes between the U.S. and Iran across the region [are] hardly helping the situation,” she said. “If anything, it’s making it harder to separate the negotiations from a pending resumption of war.”

In Trump’s interview with NBC News, he threatened to bomb Iran’s enriched uranium if Tehran will not hand it over to the U.S. Experts have warned that bombing enriched uranium sends small radioactive particles into the air. The particles do not spread far but anyone entering the nearby area faces health risks. 

An expert told the BBC last week, “That’s because the uranium particles could become lodged in the cells, inside either your lungs or your stomach, and slowly, radioactively decay, and that will cause damage.”

Trump also said U.S. forces would seize Iran’s enriched uranium if Tehran declined to hand it over. U.S. and Iranian officials are currently negotiating a “memorandum of understanding that would reopen the Strait of Hormuz and extend the current fraying ceasefire.” A second 60-day round of negotiations would focus on Iran’s nuclear program.

Military experts have warned that a U.S. commando raid to seize the uranium by force could last for days and potentially require American forces to build a landing strip. U.S. forces could be exposed to attacks from Iranian forces and could suffer high casualties.

Trump told NBC News that Iran has agreed to not seek a nuclear weapon, but he wanted an additional provision added to the agreement to ensure Iran cannot purchase one.

Trump said the Iranians pushed back “a little bit” on his demand. “And then they didn’t.”

Experts have warned that Iranian leaders have publicly promised for years to not obtain a nuclear weapon. They say such a pledge from Iranian officials cannot be trusted.

Iranian officials have continued to demand the return of up to $24 billion in frozen Iranian assets held overseas as part of the memorandum of understanding. Trump told NBC News he opposed any release of frozen Iranian funds until after the second round of negotiations had been completed.

Gregory Brew, a senior Iran and oil analyst at the Eurasia Group, told MS NOW that he was not surprised that two sides are digging in at this point in the negotiations. But he thinks a deal remains possible.

 “I think what that means is after a week of fairly rapid progress, movements have now slowed, as both sides dig into their respective positions,” Brew said. “My personal feeling is that this deadlock won’t last forever, there’s still a mutual incentive to reach a deal and that will keep negotiations moving.”

Jake Traylor contributed to this report.

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